Paying Larry Sanders

Larry Sanders is set for an contract extension, and we explain why he’s worth it.

According to Marc Stein of ESPN, Larry Sanders is in advanced stages with the Milwaukee Bucks to finalizing a contract extension. While the details of the contract aren’t fully known, the rumored figure is to be one worth $10 million a year, which would make Sanders the Bucks highest paid player.

Last season was a breakout year for the big man from VCU. Sanders averaged 9.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks playing just 27.3 minutes a game, starting 55 games. With Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings both off the books, Sanders is now the face of the franchise, and Milwaukee now has significant cap room to put towards him.

So is he worth $10 million a year? This short answer is yes. Sanders makes a significant impact defensively, as he recorded at least one block in 40 straight games last season, and totaled 201 blocks for the year.

Beyond being a great shot blocker, Sanders is also very effective as an interior defender. A Harvard study done by Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss entitled, “The Dwight Effect: A New Ensemble of Interior Defense Analytics in the NBA,” studied both basket and shot proximity, indicating that roughly one-third of shots, “occurred with an interior defender within 5 feet of the basket” and that the most dominant defenders succeeded by, “reducing the shooting efficiency of opponents, and also reducing the shooting frequency of opponents.” With basket proximity, Sanders ranked near the top with Roy Hibbert, as, “NBA shooters make 49.7% of their field goal attempts when qualifying interior defender is within 5 feet of the basket; however, this number drops to 38% when either Hibbert or Sanders are within 5 feet.”

Additionally, Sanders ranked highest in Proximal FG%, which as Goldsberry and Weiss explain,

…when there is a qualifying interior defender within 5 feet of a shot attempt, the NBA shoots 45.6% from the field; however this value varies considerably depending on which defender that is. The most effective proximate defender in our study was Larry Sanders; opponents shot only 34.9% when he was within 5 feet of their shot.

Essentially, Sanders makes scoring difficult for opponents. It isn’t hard to see that Sanders is strong defensively just from watching, but this study certainly backs him up for any who may doubt just how effective he is. I recommend reading the entire study, it acknowledges its own limitations, but still provides a number of surprising findings regarding other so called “elite defenders” (Ibaka isn’t as dominant as he appears).

But I digress. The point here is that Sanders is worth the impending extension. Elite defensive centers are hard to come by, and Sanders made a ton of improvement between years two and three, as indicated by his play and backed up by the analytical study. Considering that he’ll make roughly the same as DeAndre Jordan, a capable albeit slightly overrated center, Sanders warrants such a deal. Granted, to really be worth the deal he will need to improve his scoring ability and look to reduce personal fouling (3.3 average per game last season). His numbers should go up as he logs more minutes per game, but by how much depends on his own improvement this offseason.

What’s intriguing is how this contract will effect the extension talks of Greg Monroe and DeMarcus Cousins. Both were drafted the same year as Sanders, and individually have had strong careers up to this point. Numbers wise both are much better offensively than Sanders, but defensively fall way behind, with Cousins ranking 22nd in Proximal FG% and Monroe 44th. While this doesn’t mean the two can’t be capable defenders, they aren’t on the level of Sanders. While debating which of the three deserves the most money is slightly enticing, I’ll save that topic until after all three have signed and instead leave it on this note: Larry Sanders is about to get paid, and he deserves what’s coming his way.