Payton can either adapt or get left behind by the NFL

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This off-season the Saints overhauled their roster, their coaching and scouting departments, but there was one key piece Payton omitted: himself.

It wasn’t that long ago that the team broke numerous NFL records in their historic 2011 season, but things change rapidly in the NFL. The following year the read option seemed indefensible until defensive coordinators had an off-season to examine it. Seemingly rising stars such as Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III started to fade, and the read option was delegated to a special guest rather than the featured act.

Payton sat out the 2012 season serving a suspension, but everyone expected the offense to be back to normal once he returned.

The truth is the offense hasn’t been the same since, and if we’re being honest, it might not ever be. What was once an imaginative and head spinning offense has been stale. Yes, it has BEEN stale, and the only one to blame is Payton himself.

How many times have we seen the heavy formation near midfield, and everyone knows that they’re going to take a shot downfield? Has it worked this year? Is the fake hand off fooling anyone? For the most part Brees has been safe and just taken underneath completions this year, but on Sunday, in the midst of a comeback, he forces it to Brandin Cooks in double coverage.

There was the shoulder injury that Brees suffered earlier in the game that took the zip off of his throws, and yes, there did seem to be some body pushing by the defensive back on that play, but that play shouldn’t have been called at all, and this gets us to the heart of the matter.

Payton still thinks like his 2011 self. He believes that he can still run his offense like he always has and it’s still going to dominate. In his mind, the hard play action in the heavy set will fool the safety into cheating up into the box, but he is only fooling himself. It’s become a practice in futility.

So why, after Brees is hurt and visibly can’t put the same power behind his throws, do you call for a play that’s meant to take a shot down the field? Because you’re Sean Payton, and it’s what you do, but what you do is predictable, not working, and is exposing your 100 million dollar quarterback to injury. Yes, a predictable offense, especially one with deep drop backs and long developing routes, will expose your quarterback to injury.

So what can be done? For one, I would hand over play calling duties to Pete Carmichael. This was being done in the preseason but didn’t carry over, and I think you’re seeing the old tendencies persist. I think Carmichael is more gifted in this area, even if it’s Payton’s ideas.

The team needs to consider running more no huddle. A key characteristic of Payton’s offense is constantly rotating personnel groupings, and it’s worked when they had players that were match up nightmares. However, outside of Cooks and Spiller (who saw 7 snaps last Sunday), there really isn’t any match ups that worry defensive coordinators. The team could compensate at times with tempo that the no huddle provides.

A concerted effort needs to be made to call more variety of plays out of individual formations. Earlier I mentioned the shot play near mid-field, which we are all familiar with. Maybe you could actually run out of that formation at that part of the field? Not only could it turn into a nice gain, but teams would have to respect the run once again, and maybe the shot play could start working again. You can also look at a offense like Gary Kubiak runs. It’s largely predicated on running a lot of plays out of similar looks, forcing teams to play disciplined, and making them pay when they don’t.

While the team isn’t going to make over the offense at this point in the year, they can do things within the established scheme to become less predictable. The team, and possibly Payton, can’t afford to go about business as usual. This is a different team, and it’s a different league than it was in 2011.

It’s not just a matter of can he adapt, but is he willing? We’ll see.

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