With three games in the books, and the majority of the conference slate set to begin this Saturday, I think it’s about time to take a look at how things have played out thus far. Per usual, some teams have surprised, some have disappointed, and others have managed to absolutely befuddle even the most dedicated, hardcore fans.
In beating Michigan State, the Oregon Ducks have already cleared their first major hurdle on their way to the inaugural college football playoff this January. However, with conference play looming, there are still plenty of potential upsets waiting along the way.
While the Ducks will be favored in every game left on their schedule, the familiarity that comes with playing a conference foe always seems to bring a couple of shocking upsets each season. Last year, Utah took down eventual conference champ Stanford early in the season, while the Ducks got shocked in Tucson despite being three touchdown favorites.
So, with that in mind, let’s take a quick trip through the Ducks remaining schedule, assess what we know about each team so far, and see if we can identify which games pose the biggest threat to the Ducks playoff dreams. Of course, since this is a sports column, I will be including a completely meaningless and, frankly, mostly arbitrary upset rating to each game, based on a classic * (“Feel free to make plans”) to ***** (“Grab your heart pills!”) system. You’re welcome.
Washington State – Sept 20th – Pullman, WA
Fresh off of their first bowl appearance in 10 years, Washington State entered Mike Leach’s third season with a (supposedly) manageable non-conference schedule, and seemed ready to finally make some noise in the Pac-12. However, it only took one game for things to go off the rails, as Washington State got things started early by Coogin’-it on opening night against a thoroughly mediocre Rutgers team. They followed that up with a less than inspiring loss to Nevada, all but officially ending any sort of dream season fantasies in Pullman.
Based solely on their dismal performances during their preseason schedule, this game should be a walk in the park for the high-flying Ducks. The Cougs defense has been less than impressive, and while their offense has been predictably potent, it’s still been too prone to mistakes thus far to put any fear in the Ducks.
If this game were in Eugene, I would call it a slam dunk. However, as every horror movie ever made has taught us about small, podunk towns full of drunken teenagers, crazy things seem to happen in Pullman.
Upset-O-Meter: **
Arizona – Oct 2nd – Eugene, OR
Ahh, the revenge game. This may be one of the most underrated rivalries in the conference the past 10 years. This series has seen everything. Dramatic comebacks, stunning upsets (plural), overtime games, blown ACLs, premature storming of the field, fans chucking bottles at cheerleaders, and an ill-fated Chris Henry sighting that still haunts me to this day. The only thing crazier than the games between these teams is that the Arizona’s home field is emblazoned with “Bear Down” at mid-field, even though their mascot is a cat. Clearly, this is designed to confuse opponents. Based on last year’s results, I think it’s working.
So, if there’s one thing that we shouldn’t have to worry about this year, it’s the Ducks overlooking Arizona, after they took they Ducks behind the woodshed last year in Tucson. While Arizona has looked pretty spry under Rich Rodriguez, with this game in Autzen, I’m hard pressed to see the Wild Bear Down Cats pulling another upset this time around. Well, as long as Chris Henry doesn’t show up.
Upset-O-Meter: **
UCLA – Oct 11th – Pasadena, CA
Heading into the season, UCLA was essentially the co-favorite to bring home the Pac-12 crown, along with Oregon. Three games into the season, they’re still undefeated, still ranked in the top 10, and everything is going to plan… right? Well, not quite. A couple of less than impressive wins against undermanned Virginia and Memphis teams, plus an injury to superstar quarterback Brett Hundley has UCLA looking like by far the most suspect of the top ranked undefeated teams. Throw in a very young, and injury plagued offensive line, and you have a team that looks primed for a disappointing season.
Yet, they’re still undefeated, they still have loads of talent on both sides of the ball, and when you have a difference-maker like Hundley behind center, it’s hard to count them out. With the rest of the Ducks top challengers coming into Autzen, this is still the arguably their toughest matchup of the season.
Upset-O-Meter: ****
Washington – Oct 18th – Eugene, OR
I haven’t been paying too close of attention this season, but, rumor has it that the Huskies were forced to change their team name on all official paraphernalia to “WashingTEN Huskies” in honor of the decade-long losing streak to the rival Ducks (all by over two touchdowns, I might add). While this may or may not be true, it does highlight the lopsidedness of this rivalry in recent times.
Sure, they’ve hired former Duck Chris Petersen to take over for “Seven Win Steve” Sarkisian, no doubt counting on his 2-0 record against Oregon while at Boise State to carry over to the shores of Lake Washington. And, yes, while it pains me to say it, the Huskies will eventually beat the Ducks. Someday. But, with a first year quarterback and a defense that gave up 52 points to FCS Eastern Washington, it’s a tall task to ask them to come into Autzen Stadium and beat Marcus Mariota and the Ducks.
Upset-O-Meter: **
California – Oct 24th – San Jose, CA [Levi Stadium
After a year in which it felt like everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, Cal has come in this year and already doubled their 2013 win total through three games this year, including a solid win on the road against Northwestern. They’ve found their quarterback in sophomore Jared Goff, and it seems as though Sonny Dykes run-n-gun offense is starting to take hold. Unfortunately for them, the defense is still a work in progress, and that’s not a good recipe for beating this Ducks team.
This game will also be played at the 49ers new digs, Levi Stadium, which will probably help the Cal athletic department’s bottom line, but, along with the Friday night game time, won’t likely provide the kind of raucous environment it typically takes to pull off an upset of this magnitude.
Upset-O-Meter: *
Stanford – Nov 1st – Eugene, OR
Yes, Stanford lost a lot on defense. Yes, their red-zone offense looked downright terrible in a loss to USC. Yes, this game is in Eugene. Yes, the Ducks will likely be two touchdown favorites heading into this game. But, you could say most of those things heading in to each of the last two games between the Ducks and Cardinal, and the Ducks ended up on the wrong side of both games, including a thumping down on The Farm last year.
Then there’s also the weird trend of Heisman candidate quarterbacks struggling in this matchup, with Mariota and Andrew Luck combining to go 0-4 the past four seasons.
So, until the Ducks can prove they’ve figured out how to solve Stanford’s power attack, this is the game of the year, and the Ducks biggest challenge.
Upset-O-Meter: *****
Utah – Nov 8th – Salt Lake City, UT
While Utah hasn’t been able to duplicate their prior success since joining the Pac-12, they have managed to pull off some upsets playing at home in the SLC. The altitude, potential for inclement weather, a rowdy crowd, experienced quarterback and a well-coached team are all the kind of things you need going for you to pull off the big upset. Throw in what should be a physical war the week before against Stanford, and you have the makings of an emotional letdown and a classic trap game.
The Ducks are clearly the more talented team, and will likely be heavy favorites, but, they can’t just sleepwalk into this game, or they very may well find themselves in the same situation as Stanford last year: watching their championship dreams disappear into the cold night air of Salt Lake City.
Upset-O-Meter: ****
Colorado – Nov 22nd – Eugene, OR
Let’s face it, Colorado has been straight up terrible since joining the Pac-12. Sure, they’ve been a bit more competitive since bringing on Mike McIntyre last season, and they have a few young guys who have stepped up, namely linebacker Addison Gillam and wide receiver Nelson Spruce. But, this is also a team that lost to Colorado State by two touchdowns, and had to make a dramatic comeback to take down FBS newcomer UMass. Unless Kordell Stewart and Rashaan Salaam find some remaining eligibility, this one is going to get ugly.
Upset-O-Meter: *
Oregon State – Nov 29th – Corvallis, OR
Prior to last year’s Civil War, the Ducks had completely dominated the Beavers since Chip Kelly took over and installed his blur offense. The Ducks superior athletes and team speed were just too much for the Beavers. Toss in a less than impressive 2-0 start for the Beavers, and I’d have likely counted this as a sure win for the Ducks.
However, last year’s dramatic, back-and-forth Civil War reminded me just how unpredictable rivalry games can be. How many times have we’ve seen National Championship dreams shattered at the hand of a less-heralded “little brother” rival. Whether it was Pittsburgh taking down #2 West Virginia, UCLA clipping #1 USC or Cal executing the craziest end-game play ever and denying John Elway and Stanford a bowl game, the lesson with rivalry games is always there: Anything. Can. Happen. Particularly on the road.
Upset-O-Meter: ***
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