Penn State has the potential to win 10 games in the 2014 season, but many uncertainties will have to go their way.
This week I was asked to provide my game-by-game predictions for Penn State in a round-up put together by Athlon Sports. I happily obliged, went down the schedule and gave my gut-instinct prediction for each. I admit I sometimes allow a bit of homerism when making some picks, but even I was a little surprised to see I had run through the schedule and put together 10 wins. I immediately took to Twitter and gathered some feedback from others, and even those with no ties to Penn State or the Big Ten suggested I was not as off the rocker as I thought I might be. A few college football minds I follow suggested Penn State was very capable of pulling together 10 or nine wins. I do believe 10 wins is the ceiling, and it may be a high ceiling to reach considering the depth concerns, a new coaching staff and some of the competition lined up for the fall, but this is not exactly a Sistine Chapel-height of a ceiling to reach.
Will Penn State win 10 games this season? Probably not, but it is not totally out of the question. As I told Athlon Sports, Penn State will have the talent to snag a game they probably should not win (Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State) but the depth concerns to let one slip away they should win (Indiana, Minnesota
New coaching staff brings energy, but will they back it up?
Nobody will doubt the amount of enthusiasm this coaching staff brings to the table. Just take a look at what Penn State has been doing in recruiting since arriving on the scene and you can tell there is something they are doing as a group to connect with recruits the way no coaching staff in State College has for some time now. But no matter how much juice a staff provides at a new school, they still have to follow through and put everything together on the field in the fall. Will this coaching staff win and be able to put together a threat to Urban Meyer and Ohio State or Mark Dantonio and Michigan State? Maybe not quite this year, but we should see some potential for what the future may bring this season.
The schedule appears favorable
I intend to dig more into the game-by-game predictions in the coming weeks, but at first glance the Penn State schedule appears to be one that does Penn State some favors. Getting a bye week before a road game at Michigan comes at a great time, and then the Nittany Lions get another bye week immediately following the trip to Ann Arbor so they can prepare for a home date against Ohio State (Michigan will be coming off a road game at Rutgers and Ohio State will be coming off a home game with the Scarlet Knights). I figure UCF will take a step or two back from last season and Akron and UMass at home should be of little concern (although Akron could put up a mild fight for a while). I feel as though Penn State should leave New Jersey with a win as things stand right now and that sets them up to be 5-0 heading to Michigan, and I think the game in Ann Arbor is a toss-up right now.
Ohio State is my Big Ten favorite this season and I have it marked as a loss for the moment, but if Penn State can build momentum early on, I am not ready to write down a loss in Sharpie just yet, just erasable ink. Michigan State i the other game I think goes against Penn State, but there will be so much football to be played before getting a real sense for the regular season finale. So much can happen, and Penn State gets the Spartans at home, so who knows? Are there any games aside from Ohio State and Michigan State that look like automatic losses? Some have predicted Indiana, but I have a hunch this year’s Penn State squad (and Christian Hackenberg in particular) will be better prepared to handle any adversity that comes in Bloomington. Last year’s game is sitting fresh in the memory banks of many, but I feel that was a game that got away from a team unable to keep up and with a freshman quarterback going through some growing pains. I have that as a win right now.
Staying healthy is always the key
This one likely does not need to be said, but it is true. With a roster still digging its way out of and through the sanction period, depth on the roster tends to be shallow at many positions. Penn State has been banged up at times, and the results have shown on the field, but if the first team can stay mostly healthy, Penn State should be OK. Keeping Hackenberg healthy, naturally, is critical, which leads me to…
Offensive line is a concern (and has been for years)
It seems as though I have said this every season I have been covering the team. There is something lacking on the Penn State offensive line that keeps the Nittany Lions from pushing forward against the toughest opponents. Penn State will rack up big numbers against schools like UMass and Akron, but when they go up against the top teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, specifically), the offensive line fails to get a push forward when needed. To me, that has been one of the biggest areas for improvement for years now. I expect that to change with Herb Hand now doing the coaching, but this is not quite going to be like flipping a switch.
Yeah, but what about the defense?
No question about it, the defense needs to get back to being a “Penn State defense.” Last season Penn State ranked 58th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 26.2 points per game, easily the worst numbers the program has seen in program history. Yes, recruiting limitations have come into play already, and Penn State does get a pass on that, but it just shows there is work to be done on and off the field. It starts up front, where the front seven needs to find ways to penetrate the offensive line. Just as I said above about the offensive line concerns, Penn State’s defense has struggled to break things up in the backfield or plug holes in tight situations against the best of the Big Ten (unless the Wisconsin game was a sign of things to come). I do not suspect this will change immediately, but I also do not anticipate seeing Ohio State score 63 points or Indiana scoring 44 points or Michigan scoring 40 points.
So, how many wins in 2014?
I’m on record saying Penn State wins 10 games, which I feel is being really optimistic. As the season progresses I’ll reserve the right to change specific game predictions but we will worry about that later. Now, how many games do YOU think Penn State will win this season? Share your prediction in the comment section below.
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