Perception Bias

Selective perception is a cognitive bias in which people take in the facts that suit their established perception. I personally call it a perception bias. It’s very evident in sports, especially among the ardent fans of the game, no matter what game they follow. A referee blows a key call late in a game? Well, then, the fan is going to look for every call that particular official misses going forward as evidence of his perception, even if the official makes almost all correct calls after that one key mistake. The same type of thing is rather apparent with players as well.

One of the things that fuels perception bias among players is leverage. Every mistake or success in a crucial situation is magnified. Matt Capps was acquired in exchange for a player who was never going to regularly feature in the Twins line up, but one that was talented nonetheless. He also replaced one of the best in the league at the position, and a popular player in Joe Nathan.. Making things worse, he was one of the 40 or so players who struggled last year for the Twins. In short, the opinion of Capps was poisoned against him to begin with. That said, he has had an ERA of 3.55 with good control rates and 14 saves for a bad team. His strike out rates and home run totals are a little bit higher than that of, say, Glen Perkins, but they have had very similar seasons. Capps mistakes are in high leverage situations, in a polluted environment for public opinion. Perkins has none of those disadvantages, and while he has been a slightly better pitcher this season, he hasn’t been so much better than Capps that the calls for a change at closer are entirely warranted (neverminding the fact that the role of “closer” is a BS role anyways). While Capps isn’t the best pitcher in the Twins bullpen, he is awfully close. The only thing he has working against him is the predisposition of the fan base.

Another player that is the victim of psychology is one of the members of Capps’ battery, Joe Mauer. The problem for Mauer is different. He makes a lot of money in a market not used to players making a lot of money. He missed a lot of games last season due to a mysterious ailment. Additionally, he has the problem seen among a lot of hitters. His home fans simply watch him too much. Even a .330 hitter will get out 2/3 times you see him. And those clutch hits? Home runs are more readily identifiable as the right hit in any given situation, and he doesn’t hit that many. He does have one of the highest batting averages against left handed pitchers in the league… as a lefty. He has a wOBA that isn’t far off his career pace (which is artificially elevated by one magical season back in 2009). All anyone will ever talk to you about, however, is his lack of power (which, aside from one season, he has never had) and the double plays. Oh, and if he ever misses a game, then he is soft.

There is an environment that will work against Joe Mauer and Matt Capps, and it will likely be impossible to change, unless people are willing to look objectively at all of the facts, rather than just the ones that suit their existing biases.