Pessimistic Pacers fan starts to believe

I’ve been a pessimistic Pacers fan for as long as I can remember. Maybe it was when the Pacers blew a 3-2 lead in 1994 against the Kicks, or when Larry Johnson got that ridiculous 4-point play in 1999. Perhaps it was the brawl, when they were the best team in the league, or the dreaded Jim O’Brien years, or when the team started out on fire in 2013 before spluttering to a woeful end in the 2014 playoffs. Oh yeah, and when Paul George snapped his leg and David West left town.

And so expectations were naturally in check this season, and even dropped a little after the team started out 0-3. But since then, oh my. The Pacers have gone 12-2, with the only two losses coming on the road against conference rivals Cleveland (4 points) and Chicago (1 point), the latter of which was avenged back in Indy. They started off this current four-game road trip with a win over the Lakers and then beat the Clippers yesterday, and will soon face off against the 7-12 Trailblazers.

Here are some cold hard facts.

• At 12-5, the Pacers sit at second place in the East, just half a game behind the Cavs. Their record is fourth overall in the league behind the Warriors, Spurs and Cavs.
• The Pacers have the largest point-differential in the East at +6.6, more than a full point ahead of the Cavs. Across the league, their point differential is third behind the Warriors and Spurs.
• The Pacers are 10th in the league in points per game (101.9) and 4th in the league in points allowed per game. They are also 10th in offensive rating and 2nd in defensive as per NBA.com, with an overall net rating of 3rd (again behind Warriors and Spurs).
• In terms of shooting percentages, the Pacers are 13th (44.3%) in field goals and 2nd (39.7%) in three-pointers. They are, however, the 9th worst free throw shooting team in the league (73.5%).
• In terms of defensive shooting percentages, the Pacers are 8th in field goal percentage allowed (42.8%) and 7th in three point percentage allowed (32.2%).
• The Pacers are a below-average passing team, ranking 17th in assists (21.0), and are one of the less impressive teams looking after the ball, ranking 19th in terms of turnovers (15.5). They are, however, 4th in steals per game (9.4).
• Paul George, the Oct/Nov Eastern Conference Player of the Month, is 4th in the league in points per game (27.4), shooting a career-high 45.5% from the field and 46.3% from three-point range. He’s also averaging career highs in rebounds (8.2) and assists (4.4). He is 5th in player efficiency (26.6) and 9th in the league in clutch stats.

I’m actually starting to believe again. While it’s easy to remain skeptical because players on the team are shooting so much better from the outside as their career numbers indicate (CJ Miles, George Hill and Paul George in particular), I’d like to believe that it’s because of the new offensive system and the space that is being opened up by Paul George and Monta Ellis. In recent interviews, both coach Frank Vogel and the players have taken pride in their success but insist that they still have a long way to go in terms of improving to where they want to be. That is great news.

The team still has ample room for improvement, and the promising thing is that they are heading in the right direction. For example, Monta Ellis, who hasn’t been putting up great numbers but has done a lot of good things every time he’s been on the floor, appears to be finding his place in team. Rather than forcing the issue, he appears to be picking his spots and taking better shots. After that horrible 2-point, 1-9 game against the Magic on Nov. 9, Ellis has scored in double digits every game since, with the exception of a 7-point game against Philly in which he played just 27 minutes and has a season-high 9 assists. In the last 5 games, in particular, he has only taken more than 10 shots once, but he still scored at least 10 a game and shot 50% from the field overall.

There are plenty of other areas where the team will improve. George Hill started off the season strong but has been in a bit of a slump, so expect him to snap out of that eventually. Rodney Stuckey had those early ankle injuries, but he’s finding his groove too, playing a big role in the win against the Clippers with 18 points off the bench. Ian Mahinmi appears to be regaining his confidence from the charity stripe, going 15-22 (68%) in his last three games even when teams tried to resort to the hack-an-Ian strategy. Granted, 68% is not fantastic, but it’s serviceable and Steph Curry-like when you consider that Ian had shot 5-24 (20.8%) coming into these last three games.

Looking further along the bench you’ve got Glenn Robinson III, who hasn’t played much since that breakout game against the Bucks (17 points), though it shows that he can be ready to contribute when called upon. Same goes for Solomon Jones, who remains a professional and has done well when receiving court time. When someone as good as Solo is your 12th man it gives the team a lot of confidence. Oh, and let’s not forget about Myles Turner, who will eventually return from that broken hand and continue his promising path to stardom. Despite the small sample size, I already think he’s playing than most of the rookies picked before him in the draft.

So let’s hope the Pacers can continue in the right direction and keep making Larry Bird look like the absolute genius that he is.