Phoenix Suns Outlook for the Future

Phoenix Suns Outlook for the Future

Team Summary:  The Phoenix Suns are in complete rebuilding mode right now.  In the 2012-2013 season, they ranked 26th on defense and 21st on offense, and they finished as the worst team in the West with a record of 25-57.  Goran Dragic, Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat are currently the best players on their roster, and they’ll have the third or fourth best odds to get the top pick in June’s NBA Draft (with a coin toss with Cleveland).  There are holes all over the roster, and this team seems to be a few years away from even returning to the playoffs.

Positives:  Goran Dragic has quietly become one of the best point guards in the NBA, and he could be their PG of the future.  He’s only 26 and averaged 14.7 points, 7.4 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game.  Dragic also has a good veteran center to play off of in Marcin Gortat (11.1 ppg, 8.5 rbp) who, at 29, still should have some good years left ahead of him.  He’ll be in a contract year next season, so who knows if he’s part of Phoenix’s long-term plans or not.  Phoenix also has all of their first round picks for the future, and obviously you need first round picks when rebuilding a team.

Weaknesses:  The Suns have no true young center piece to build around yet.  Dragic is a great PG, but you can’t build a team around him like you could with Steve Nash.  They shot just 33% from three point range, which ranked near the bottom of the league, and struggled to get to the free throw line, only shooting 19.7 free throws per game.  They also turned the ball over around 15 times per game, which ranked among the worst in the NBA.  Another concern for Phoenix is the fact that 2012 first round draft pick Kendall Marshall barely saw the floor as a rookie.  Despite having Dragic as their guy at PG, it’s concerning that a lottery pick can’t get any playing time on one of the worst teams in the NBA.  Maybe he could become a decent trade piece in the future though.  Who knows.  P.J. Tucker was a nice find for them; he should be retained as he’s a great defender that can come off the bench.

Team Needs:  Wing players, shooters, and a plan of direction for the frontcourt.

Plan of Action:  It sounds so cliché, but the Suns’ front office simply needs to make smart decisions.  They need to attempt to land as many future first round picks as possible and build a nucleus of young talent.  They can do it by trading some of their vets that are still effective, one of them being Marcin Gortat.  Be smart in free agency and be patient.  I think they should look to trade Gortat in the off-season; he’s still an effective big man who’s entering a contract year and could put up big numbers.  Many teams would be interested in him, so they should see if they can get a good deal for him that will help the team for the future.  The Suns may have to tank the 2013-2014 season, but if you get an Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker-type player, then it’s entirely worth it.  The Suns should also see what Luis Scola’s trade value is as the veteran has no real future on the Suns.

Cap Situation:  The Suns will be returning just under $10 million for this off-season.  Their expiring contracts are Wes Johnson, Jermaine O’Neal and Diante Garrett.  Wes Johnson could possibly be retained but only if the price is right.  He could be a decent guy to come off the bench.  The Suns could dump the inefficient Shannon Brown and use the “stretch provision” rule where they wouldn’t have to pay him all of the $3,500,000 owed next season.  They could stretch out the payments over the course of a few seasons.  These saved dollars could really help Phoenix sign a free agent or two this off-season, but at the same time Brown is their only natural shooting guard.

2013 NBA Draft

First Round:  Otto Porter, Ben McLemore, Anthony Bennett or Nerlens Noel

Again, the Suns really need help on the wing.  In my opinion, Otto Porter and Ben McLemore are the best fits for them.  They provide instant upgrades and could start for Phoenix for years to come.  If they could get Ben McLemore, that provides them with a lethal spot-up shooter and would let them get rid of Shannon Brown to shed some cap space.  However, Porter is also a really nice prospect with loads of potential, but he’s just still very raw.  If the Suns landed the first or second pick and have a shot at Nerlens Noel, he would also definitely be in play.  He has the most upside in the draft, and if they could snag him, Gortat can go back onto the trade block.  They could trade him for picks or some younger prospects.

Second Round:  BPA (Best Player Available)

It’s rare to find any true core players in the second round, but it still does happen.  The Suns will probably just begin cleaning house so they should use these picks to draft who they feel is the best player on the board.  You can find some very solid role players and bench players in this round that can also become good trade pieces in the future.  Some second round prospects I like include Nate Wolters, Trevor Mbakwe, Allen Crabbe, and Alex Abrines.

Free Agency:  The Suns should have enough cap space this summer to look into signing a pretty decent, established player in the league.  Tyreke Evans is a guy I think could really benefit from a change of scenery.  He’s continually gotten worse in Sacramento and doesn’t seem happy there.  He’s still a young player with a lot of potential and could potentially be Phoenix’s leading scorer next year if they signed him.  Monta Ellis could also be in play if he turns down his $11 million option for next season and enters free agency.

Outlook:  If the Suns make smart front office decisions, they’ll be back in the playoffs in a few seasons.  That’s a big “if” though, and it’s easier said than done.  They need to use patience and do it the right way.  If they do this right, they’ll have a shot at landing a Wiggins or Parker-type player next year.  Good news for them is Dragic is a great PG, they have cap space, and Marcin Gortat could garner a good package in a trade.

By Brian Emory

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