Pick Five

I had been debating posting this anyway, so the timing works out (it was either this or a very numbers-heavy post. Count your blessings!). I really hate posting speculative posts–not that I don’t have opinions, but reality lives about 4,533 miles away from what I think. Consider this a work of fiction, based on a true story.

On Tuesday, Ryan posted about what would happen if the Twins traded Johan Santana and some prospects: “The next year without Santana, without those vaunted prospects, we would have a pitching rotation that would have Twins fans clamoring for Rich Robertson.” Would we? Of course it’s possible, but I fear the day the Twins rotation has fans clamoring for a guy with a major league 5.40 ERA/1.67 WHIP in 114 games/415 innings. However, let’s look at the situation right now.

Based on pitchers on the Twins’ 40-man roster who pitched in the majors last year (plus Carlos Silva, who is now a free agent), who are the options for the Twins’ Starting Five in 2008? To avoid conflict, the players are listed in age order (ages as of July 1, 2008). I think the most telling thing about this staff is that the oldest player will be 29 years old–and that’s if Santana stays.

Carlos Silva, 29. I think we’ve seen the last of Silva in a Twins uniform. While he earlier expressed a willingness to take a discount to stay at “home”, I somehow doubt the Twins could even afford him at the discounted price. MLB Career ERA: 4.31/1.37 WHIP, 259 games/945 innings/125 starts

Johan Santana, 29. There is, of course, the possibility that of trading Santana. I suspect this won’t happen for two reasons. First, the Twins seemed resigned to the fate of not re-signing Torii Hunter. To lose Santana and Hunter in the same year would be a poor marketing move. That brings me to the second point: The only way fans would be resigned to this is for multiple high quality players, which I doubt other teams will give up. Of course, he will be the ace of the staff and opening day starter, no matter where he is opening day, but I suspect March 31, 2008, will see him on the mound in the Metrodome–wearing a Twins’ uniform. MLB Career ERA: 3.22/1.09 WHIP, 251 games/1308.2 innings/175 starts

Scott Baker, 26. Baker’s 2007 season started out with one promising game, and then another decline with similar numbers to his poor 2006 season. However, post all-star his numbers showed dramatic improvement equal, capped by a near-perfect game. He is a possibility in a trade for a decent bat; his value outside of the team is probably equal, if not higher, than it is to the Twins. If he’s not traded, he will be in the starting rotation. MLB Career ERA: 4.71/1.36 WHIP, 50 games/280.2 innings/48 starts

Boof Bonser, 26. Boof would be intriguing to other teams based on his great September 2006 run, as well as his excellence in May 2007–he has the ability to pitch very well. However, clubs will note his eventual “demotion” to the bullpen in September 2007. If he stays on the team, he will likely be in the starting rotation, but the bullpen for long-relief is possibility if things don’t go well. His main problem has been a lack of stamina, probably due to weight. The Twins have asked him to address the situation. MLB Career ERA: 4.77/1.43 WHIP, 49 games/273.1 innings/48 starts

Nick Blackburn, 26. Blackburn’s potential in a trade is either for an okay experienced batter, or a throw-in in another deal (I’m not a betting person, but if he were traded, I would bet on the latter); his age and lack of major league experience would make him more questionable in a trade. If he’s not traded, he will likely start the year in Rochester, unless other trades decimate our rotation and/or he’s needed to fill Fransisco Liriano’s place until Liriano comes back. MLB Career ERA: 7.71/1.80 WHIP, 6 games/11.2 innings/0 starts

Glen Perkins, 25. Perkins spent last year in the bullpen or on the DL (and one start in Rochester). Despite the Twins insistence that he will be prepared to be a starter next year, I believe he will find his way to the bullpen–again, unless there are too many trades of the other guys on the list. Because of his injuries last year, it’s likely other teams will value him lower than he should be, so a trade is not likely profitable; the lack of pitchers on the market could dictate that, though, and he has extra value as left-handed pitcher. MLB Career ERA: 2.88/1.11 WHIP, 23 games/34.1 innings/0 starts

Matt Garza, 24. Garza is a strong pitcher, and very attractive to other teams looking for quality young pitchers. However, based on the Twins’ past protection of players, I’m fairly confident that he would not be offered in a trade unless it was something too good to refuse. He will be in the starting rotation. MLB Career ERA: 4.47/1.60 WHIP, 26 games/133 innings/24 starts

Fransisco Liriano, 24. Fransisco was out the end of 2006 with injuries which led to eventual Tommy John surgery in 2007. Because of his history of injuries (which will market him as more of a risk), and past performance (on the good side), the Twins are unlikely to be trade Liriano. If healthy, he will be in the starting rotation. If he’s healthy and back to form…it will be a miracle. MLB Career ERA: 2.74/1.02 WHIP, 35 games/144.2 innings/20 starts

Kevin Slowey, 24. Like Garza, Slowey has a strong minor-league career with attractive numbers. Despite his poor June call-up, his September performance was more in line with his minor league numbers. This could make him an attractive trade candidate; his future is not projected to be as high as Garza’s so the Twins would be more willing to let him go. If he’s not traded, he’s a strong candidate for the rotation. He has little to prove in the minors, but the crowded pitching rotation could find him back there. MLB Career ERA: 4.72/1.39 WHIP, 13 games/66.2 innings/11 starts

And if you get beyond these guys, there are a number of young prospects that don’t need to be on the 40-man roster yet, but are improving every day. While I doubt they’ll be ready to come up in ’08, I’d guess it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they were needed in ’09. Hopefully, they’re not.

If Santana were traded, the Twins’ 2008 rotation of young’uns would likely be: Perkins, Liariano, Baker, Bonser, Garza; behind them would be Slowey, as well as whatever high prospects obtained in the Santana trade. (How odd would it be to have Baker be the senior pitcher in the rotation? This is another reason why Santana will likely not be traded unless a veteran major league pitcher is included. Based on the ’07 Ponson/Ortiz experiment, Twins fans aren’t too keen on outside help in the form of veteran pitchers.)

My projected starting rotation (in no particular order): Santana, Bonser/Perkins (one in the bullpen), Baker, Garza, Liriano. Back-up would be Slowey. Since it would be a little silly to send Slowey to Rochester, and both Boof and Perkins should be able to start, I speculate that at least one of the non-Santana pitchers will be traded. (Please don’t let it be Baker.)