Pick-Six: Week One Must-Watch Lotto Games

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The qualifications for this list are simple. Both teams in a given game have to be projected as unlikely to make the postseason.

The projected playoff pool will likely change due to injuries and other unforeseen events, but for now teams like the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat, both of whom drafted in the lottery this past summer, will not be included.

Otherwise, Frank Kaminsky and Justice Winslow’s Wednesday debut match-up might have made the list, and Friday’s Sixers-Jazz contest would have certainly received consideration.

Opening night offers us no such match-ups, as five of the six teams in action project as highly likely playoff teams, but the rest of the week is flooded with feature lottery affairs.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28

76ers-Celtics

OK, so I concede I might already be cheating a bit, given that the Celtics made the playoffs last season, but the plot-line here is too potent. Several analytical models favor Boston to win the Atlantic Division, the NBA’s apparent version of the NFL’s NFC East.

Still, it’s also possible that the C’s take a step backwards in a slightly improved Eastern Conference and miss the postseason (cue Danny Ainge evilly laughing). Miami, New York, Detroit, and Orlando all appear primed to increase their win totals from 2014-15, with the potential for Indiana, Washington, Milwaukee, and Charlotte to do the same.

The Eastern Conference playoff picture possesses a much blanker canvas than out West, so to speak—with far more teams projected to either win or lose lots of games—and fewer postseason spots realistically up for grabs.

Beyond the compelling discussion regarding the differences in their respective rebuilds, this figures to be a great game even if the score is not close. Sophomores Marcus Smart and Nerlens Noel, though years apart in age and playing different positions, are both making names for themselves on the defensive side of the ball early in their NBA careers.

Rest assured, Smart will be pestering the Sixers’ backcourt early and often, and Noel will be an active force for Philly on a night where the energy will be palpable in the Boston Garden. It will be interesting to see Celtics coach Brad Stevens’ plan for distributing minutes in their deep front-court that features its fair share of new faces in David Lee, Amir Johnson, and rookie Jordan Mickey.

The duo of Noel and Jahlil Okafor may be hard-pressed to earn a win in their first game together given that Robert Covington will be unavailable due to injury, but this is an undeniably tantalizing match-up. I’m also low-key excited for the debut of sauce-boss Nik Stauskas.

Wolves-Lakers (ESPN)

RIP Flip Saunders. Sunday was a sad day not just for the Saunders family or Minnesota fans, but for the entire basketball world. Rest assured, Flip will be smiling down on STAPLES Center come Wednesday. What a fun one this will be.

Wolves rookies Karl Anthony-Towns, Nemanja Bjelica and Tyus Jones and Lakers rooks D’Angelo Russell, Larry Nance Jr., and Marcelo Huertas will make their NBA debuts.

Everything I’ve seen from Towns of late, whether in summer league or preseason, screams future star. His range extends nearly to the three-point line, and his overall skill set offensively is NBA-ready. Plus he’s solid on D, and if he cuts down on his fouls, something that plagued him at Kentucky, he’ll earn enough minutes to post stats worthy of Rookie of the Year.

Meanwhile, sophomores Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Julius Randle, and Jordan Clarkson and elder statesmen Kevin Garnett, Andre Miller, Tayshaun Prince, and Kobe Bryant will be there, too.

Despite Bryant’s decline, what a joy it will be watching him and Wiggins go toe-to-toe.

It’s going to be sloppy. That much is certain. But there is just so much going on here. Who will make more passes, Kobe, Lou Williams or Nick Young? What will Byron Scott’s rotations look like? How much will Roy Hibbert’s presence help the Lakers defense?

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30

Wolves-Nuggets

Gotta give Danillo Gallinari, rookie Emmanuel Mudiay and Denver some love. And the match-up with the young Wolves makes this contest can’t-miss. Coming off of a likely loss on Wednesday versus the Rockets, will the Nuggets be able to earn their first win of the new season at home? What will Nuggets coach Mike Malone’s rotation look like?

Lakers-Kings

Who wants to play a game called which player will spook their teammates more on Mischief Night: Kobe or DeMarcus Cousins? The Kings could be a cataclysmic disaster this season.

A pick-and-roll dependent point guard like Rajon Rondo typically does not mesh well with a center that prefers to catch the ball in the post. George Karl likes to push the pace, and snakes sometimes hide in the grass. This much we know.

What we don’t know is if it will somehow work—at least enough to truly compete for the playoff spot they mortgaged their future to fight for. How Sacramento starts the season off may prove particularly important given the collection of characters, and this volatile match-up with their former rivals will be an early test for the Kings.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY DOUBLEHEADER

Blazers-Suns

Portland and Phoenix play a back-to-back home-and-away series on Mischief Night and Halloween this year. The Blazers, having retooled following LaMarcus Aldridge’s departure, are not expecting or expected to make the playoffs this season.

However, the stench of not only missing the playoffs, but also finishing in the dreaded ninth or tenth spots in the conference, has overtaken the valley of the Suns. While the Blazers will be playing with house money, and the fans may be encouraged by a ninth of tenth placed finish in the West this season, that will be another epic failure for Phoenix.

If the Suns, who swung and missed on Aldridge in free agency this summer as well, are serious about making the playoffs this year, winning both of these games is a good place to start. Wins against the conference’s elite teams won’t come easily, and if Phoenix has any shot at the postseason they have to take care of business against the teams they are “supposed to beat,” including the Blazers. Furthermore, the Suns’ situation with Markieff Morris is combustible, and how they begin the year feels extremely important.

For as good a job as Portland has done building around Damian Lillard following the loss of four starters, they have a lot of holes—most notably on defense. Still, it’s going to be a fun show on offense with C.J. McCollum, Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard, and other youngsters finally getting the chance to see more minutes.

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