Since media day hits the Pac-12 next week, and well, since it’s kinda/sorta the “THING” to do this week, I guess I’ll throw my pint-sized hat into the ring with my Pac-12 power picks. Read on for what I THINK might happen….
First off, I will NOT be doing the game-by-game thing. Too much room for error, and seriously, who knows what’s going to happen in, say, week seven or eight once injuries etc hit the various teams? I mean who in their right mind a year ago could have predicted that WSU was going to go into Corvallis in November and beat the Beavs!? Meanwhile many in Cougar nation thought that WSU’s best shot at a conference win in 2010 was at ASU! So you just can’t exactly pin things down on a weekly basis so far in advance. At least that’s my opinion, and like a-holes, we all have one (for the most part?).
But it’s even tougher when you think about all that will still happen. After all, for example the Coug offense looks like it will be the best in the Paul Wulff era….at least today….on paper anyway. But what if the dreaded injury bug strikes the team in August, during fall camp, when Wulff and the rest of the coaching staff has the players hitting the hell out of each other in the Pullman heat? What if a key player goes down, and takes the entire offense with him (I will NOT even suggest names of players who could get injured! No way I want to jinx that.).
Anyway, you know we actually did all belly up a year ago, prior to the then-Pac-10 media day? Here’s what we thought about this time a year ago as to what 2010 might look like:
Sutra’s Picks:
1) Stanford
2) Oregon
3) Oregon State
4) Washington
5) USC
6) Arizona
7) UCLA
8) Cal
9) WSU
10) ASU
Here’s what I thought:
1) Oregon
2) Stanford
3) USC
4) Arizona
5) UW
6) Oregon St
7) Cal
8) UCLA
9) ASU
10) You-know-who
And here’s what happened (standings from the official Pac-10 site):
1) Oregon
2) Stanford
3) USC
4) UW
5) Arizona
6) ASU
7) OSU
8) CAL
9) UCLA
10) WSU
Not too shabby overall. We were both pretty close in terms of the way the conference was going to break down – that Oregon and Stanford were the clear cream of the crop – and the rest were “sorta OK”. We both missed on ASU, as they were much better at the end of the year than they looked heading into 2010. But yeah, for the most part we had a pretty good feel.
So, with that, I lay down my 2011 Pac-12 media poll (and I’ve provided a link to each team’s 2011 spring fish wrap too!):
NORTH:
1) Oregon
I know, the controversy is once again swirling over Oregon and their so-called recruiting “service” provided by Willie Lyles. But here’s what I do know about Oregon – they are really fast, and really good, and have two legit Heisman types in Darron Thomas and LaMichael James. And you know what else? They had a bunch of controversy heading into 2009 and also 2010, and they won the Pac-10 both of those years. While I don’t forsee another BCS Title Game appearance, I do believe Chip Kelly survives this, Oregon circles the wagons, and while they may even lose to Stanford, I still think they’ll do enough to win the North.
I still really like ’em, a lot actually. All those excellent recruiting classes by Captain Comeback the last several years have provided some serious success on the field. And they get the Ducks at home, where you get Oregon out of Autzen and on natural grass to hopefully neutralize some of that speed. There is a new culture of winning established, and I think David Shaw takes the baton and keeps it rolling. I seriously doubt 12-1 again in 2011 though, and losing those offensive linemen will hurt. But they are still the second best team in the North, and probably the conference as well if you want to know the truth.
I know some around these parts are seriously down on the Berkeley Bears, but you can’t count me in that camp. For one, the schedule isn’t that bad, and they have a legit shot at 4-0, then a bye week before heading to Oregon. Two, a lot of people out west haven’t heard much about Zach Maynard, the junior-to-be QB transfer from Buffalo. But did you know that he led Buffalo – BUFFALO! – to a bowl game in 2009, throwing for over 2700 yards, 18 TD’s and rushing for 300 more? This is a very talented player, and with seven starters back on O, he could have the biggest impact of any new face in the conference this year. And finally, an old friend returns to Cal in O-line coach Jim Michalczik, who was on the staff when Cal had an amazing run of offensive success. Add it all up, I really see them taking a step forward this year, when everyone seems to be selling Cal at $1 a share. I’m buying.
This might be a little lower than some people think, as there seems to be a real belief out there that UW belongs in the conversation with Oregon and Stanford as a true P-12 North contender. But I don’t know, I just don’t see it this year. They do have Chris Polk and Jermaine Kearse back to terrorize opposing defenses, but the whole new QB thing is just such a wild card. Everyone loves Keith Price, and he’s described as calm, cool and “as advertised”, but let’s see how he handles the weekly crush of being a starting QB and all that comes with it? It’s one thing to come off the bench and throw a TD, or get one start down in Autzen, but it can be quite another when you are THE GUY for a full schedule. Remember, there is at least some film now on Price, and you better believe opposing coaches are going to scheme up and come after the kid QB. Until he proves he can make defenses pay, look for a ton of loading up in the box to try and take away Polk. And on D, while the volume of returning experience looks good on paper, do you realize that Mason Foster, Nate Williams and Victor Aiyewa have all left, and those three players combined for an unbelievable 349 tackles last year, as well as 14.5 sacks!? That’s a lot of lost production. Anyway, UW will flirt with bowl eligibility for sure, but I think Cal edges them out in the standings.
I usually believe in these Beavs, but the 2011 edition has some serious issues. Not just losing Quizz, maybe one of the best backs in Pac-10 history, and Stephen Paea, the power-lifting monster in the middle of the defense. But with James Rodgers and the uncertainty about that knee, well, it’s just too hard to picture the Beavs ahead of Cal and UW at this point. I did like the flashes we saw from Ryan Katz last year, with that rocket arm and all that. But he was inconsisent, and definitely a different QB without James Rodgers on the field. While the O-line should be improved, there just seems to be too much missing to see them climb the ladder past UW or even Cal.
6) WSU
Sigh. I’m as tired of picking us last as the next guy, believe me. But I do think it is at least possible to edge past Oregon State and get to fifth in the North. But for reasons that have been covered time and again, I still believe we are one more year away from real bowl contention. I think the number of wins will likely double, to at least 4 victories, and both the offense and defense will take steps forward. The offense should be a hell of a lot of fun to watch, and we’re probably going to be in a lot of shootouts, Apple-Cup-2010 style. But the achillies heel is going to continue to be that defense, and especially that defensive line that has been pretty much a pushover for three seasons now. If you can’t hold the line up front, your athletes in the back seven of the defense can’t do what they do, and that’s run to the ball and make plays. We saw it too many times last year, and with a lot of the same faces back for 2011, we’re unfortunately going to see it again this year. As much as I like the defensive coaching changes and such, they are still going to be the downfall to a likely last-place finish in the North.
SOUTH
1) USC
Probation nation, year two of the Lane Kiffin regime. But their talent is still so, uh, mesmerizing….anyway, Matt Barkley is going to have a huge season, Robert Woods was fantastic as a frosh, and they are still pretty deep on offense. This should be the best SC defense in a while too, with eight starters back and a d-line that is absolutely loaded, they are going to be a tough draw on a weekly basis. The schedule does have seven bowl teams from last year, but they also get seven home games, including Stanford, UW, Arizona and Utah. I think a second year in the system with the Kiffin’s is going to be a much smoother ride, and SC holds off ASU and takes the south.
I know a lot of people have them winning the South outright, but I’m not quite there with ASU. The offense will be a lot better as Big Brock Osweiler takes over at QB, and the o-line is full of size and experience. The defense should be nasty too, with probably the best linebacker corps in the conference. But they have already lost some key guys coming out of spring, including Omar Bolden at corner which is a big loss, as well as wide receiver TJ Simpson. They will be very good still, and will give SC all they can handle, but in the end the Devils look like a certain bowl team and #2 finisher in the south.
Our new friends from Salt Lake have joined the party, and they should have a strong first showing in the Pac-12. The offense looks like it could be very good with seven starters back. But the defense has some holes up front, and the schedule looks like like it might be pretty tough with road games at BYU, Pitt, and SC among others. I do like them a little better than Arizona at this point, but I don’t think they have enough to get past ASU into 2nd place.
4) Arizona
Such a disappointing end to last year, and you wonder if it will carry over into 2011? From 7-1 and in the Pac-10 title mix to 7-6 and an embarrassing blowout in the Alamo Bowl, you wonder where they will be this fall. Nick Foles still had a strong season in 2010, but it wasn’t quite what people expected after a promising 2009. Arizona is absolutely loaded at WR though, and AZ should move the ball on pretty much everyone, but the o-line has questions with a bunch of new starters! The D line has only one starter back as well, so up front on both sides of the ball is going to be a big question. We should find out pretty quick though, as they go to Oklahoma State in week two, then have Stanford, Oregon and at USC the next three games! They will be better than UCLA and Colorado, but not enough here to catch Utah for third.
A lot of starters are back on offense, but you just don’t know about the QB situation. Kevin Prince is just fine when he’s healthy, but that is such a big IF down UCLA way! The D has a lot of familiar faces back too, with eight starters, but they underperformed as a whole last year, even with some NFL draft picks on the field. They do have to play Texas again, and the Horns will be pissed after last year’s embarrassing loss in Austin. And they do miss Oregon and UW, both teams UCLA lost to last year. But to me it’s all about the QB. If Prince is healthy, they definitely have a shot of moving past Arizona and into 4th in the south, and maybe even challenge Utah for third. But so much depends on the QB, and if the past is any indication, we should be prepared that Prince is going to miss time. And that is not a good thing for UCLA.
You hate to do this to the new guy, but someone has to finish last. And right now, there isn’t a team in the Pac-12 south with more questions than the Buffs. New coaches and new systems can make for a tough go of it initially, and then you add in a new conference with NO BYE WEEK on the schedule!? Yikes. But there is some really good talent here in Rodney Stewart at running back and Tyler Hansen at QB. But Hansen’s health has been an issue, and while he looked good in spring ball he still has to improve on the field in his TD-INT ratio. With an upset or two along the way they could get ahead of UCLA in the standings, but I don’t see them any higher than fifth in their first year in the new conference.
PAC-12 TITLE GAME: Oregon over ASU (note that USC is not eligible to play in the Pac-12 title game, so ASU goes to the Championship).
Well, that’s about it. Not exactly breaking news, I know, but just a look at where I believe things will end up for 2011.
Enjoy your day, and as always, GO COUGS!
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