Picks for the Weak: Week 10

We’re in to double digit weeks here in College Football.  That can only mean one thing.

It’s time to start sorting out the chaos.

The BCS is an utter madhouse right now with Oregon and Auburn holding the top spots and no less than 3 BCS busters following right behind.  The rest of the top 11 is a who’s-who in College Football.  Oh, and Wisconsin’s there too.

This week pits no less than 5 clashes of ranked foes.  The best of the games pits two of our potential BCS busters.  #3 TCU travels to face #5 Utah in Rice-Eccles Stadium in a game that’s going to be a blast to watch.  Other games include another schooling for Les Miles as LSU takes on ‘Bama.  And Michigan State tries to right the ship against…Minnesota.

You may be surprised who I pick in that one.

A couple weeks ago we had a new addition to the picks as our very own Rob Harley began to make weekly picks.  We’re excited to finally give him a permanent place at the table.  Welcome to the game Rob!

Speaking of game, let’s get to the picks!

Saturday, October 9th

Northwestern at Penn State

Here’s your surprise for the year – Northwestern is bowl eligible (6-2) before Penn State is (5-3).  If that doesn’t shake the foundations of your universe, I’m not sure what will.

Sure, Penn State’s had a down year and has played a number of tougher foes than Northwestern to this point, but come on.  I do have to say that Northwestern has been very impressive the last few years, and here’s to hoping they continue their trend.  The more strong teams in the Big Ten the better.

As for the actual game, Penn State has recently started to emerge as a team with an offense.  Granted, Michigan’s defense will cure all of your ills, but you still have to execute.  Penn State did a great job of taking advantage of the easy team.  That’s not to say their defense didn’t give up a little bit, which makes me believe that Northwestern can score some points on the Nits.  Given this article, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him try to tear the Penn State defense a new one.

This will likely look a whole lot like Penn State’s last home game.  The only difference is that they’ll be on the losing side.

Eric: Northwestern 38, Penn State 31

Computers: Northwestern 25, Penn State 24 (54.5%)

Illinois at Michigan

Like State Penn, Illinois is sitting at 5-3 and looking hard to try to get a bowl invite this season.  With the Illini traveling to Ann Arbor to face the toothless hound that is the Wolverine defense, Illinois has to be liking their chances.  Michigan will, of course, score points on the Illini but it won’t be enough to counter just how many points the defense will give up.

Eric: Illinois 42, Michigan 38

Computers: Michigan 32, Illinois 27 (64.4%)

Maryland at Miami (FL)

Did you see the hit that Virginia put on Jacory Harris last week?  Of course you did.  But if you didn’t, take a look again.  Good lord. He blasted Harris into next week.

I give Miami a lot of credit for clawing back into that game despite all odds.  Unfortunately, their quarterbacking situation is not really going to help them against Maryland.  Though, perhaps Harris wouldn’t have helped them much, either.

Eric: Maryland 24, Miami 14

Computers: Miami 36, Maryland 20 (85.1%)

Minnesota at #14 Michigan State

This is the type of game that good teams, after taking a tough loss, come out and just pound the opponent flat.  You know for a fact that if the Buckeyes were in MSU’s shoes, after taking a 37-6 pounding at the hands of Iowa, Minnesota would be rightly shaking in their boots.

Except, MSU is not Ohio State…and MSU does not pound opponents after tough losses.  MSU turtles up and immediately blows it to the very next team to walk through the door.

That’s almost certainly an exaggeration.  I’m sure Sparty is more than capable of getting angry and killing Minnesota.  But you know Minnesota would love nothing more than to grab one out from under Sparty.  They proved over the first quarter last week that they could hang with the Buckeyes…for a quarter.  Sparty is also famous for mailing it in after their first loss, and everyone – including the football team (it seems) – starts to anxiously await Basketball season.

That’s an awful lot of emotional reasons why I think Minnesota could actually shock the world and pull the upset.

Doesn’t mean I actually believe it, though.

Eric: Michigan State 35, Minnesota 7

Computers: Michigan State 36, Minnesota 16 (95%)

Hawaii at #4 Boise State

It’s been a while since Southern Idaho State has graced us with their presence.  This week they face a surprisingly solid Hawaii squad.  Remember that Hawaii is the team that scared the pants off Kiffykins and USC their first week.  Hawaii’s only other loss was to Colorado in Colorado.  That said, the Warriors do have an impressive win over then #19 Nevada, one of the better teams in the WAC.  Hawaii is also the top team in the conference right now with a 7-2 overall record, and 5-0 record in conference (compared to 3-0 record for Southern Idaho State).

The Broncos might have a fight on their hands here.  I have no reason to believe they won’t be ready for this one and take care of business as usual, but it’s interesting to see a couple of teams in the WAC starting to rise up to the challenge of playing the boys in blue.

Eric: Southern Idaho State 45, Hawaii 31

Computers: SISU 47, Hawaii 31 (88.1%)

#21 Baylor at #17 Oklahoma State

This will be the one that Baylor finally drops.  T. Boone Picken’s University is a very good team prepared to score a boatload of points at the drop of a hat.  While Baylor is getting to the point where they’re a team to be feared, they aren’t quite there yet.  TBPU should be able to take care of the Bears, but it will take some work to do it.

Eric: T. Boone Picken’s U 27, Baylor 20

Computers: TBPU 42, Baylor 34 (71.3%)

#18 Arkansas at #19 South Carolina

Remember when these teams were ranked near or in the top ten?  Remember when they were nearly beating (or actually beating) Alabama?  Where have they been since then?

Well, South Carolina dropped a game to Kentucky, and has since played no-one of note.  As for Arkansas, after they dropped their game to Auburn a couple weeks ago they’ve played no-one of note.

No-one of note is any of Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, by the way.

It’s tough to call this one.  Neither team has been the model of consistency, though Arkansas and quarterback Ryan Mallett have been the closest.

Eric: Arkansas 35, South Carolina 31

Computers: Arkansas 38, South Carolina 36 (53.5%)

#15 Arizona at #13 Stanford

This is your PAC-10 game of the week.  Yes, the PAC-10 is only good enough to warrant a single game in this post.  I do believe the Big East didn’t get any, though.  Dear Big East, the WAC and the MWC individually have a larger number of more interesting games than you do this week.

Stanford came into the season riding a high wave of expectations – not undeserved ones either.  Unfortunately they failed to live up to those expectations against Oregon and have since been relegated to playing second fiddle in the PAC-10.  Arizona, on the other hand, came into the season completely unheralded.  A big win at home over Iowa and suddenly they were in the national spotlight.  Unfortunately, they tossed away their undefeated season against the other team from Oregon – the Beavers from Corvallis.

This game could easily go either way.  Both teams have been playing on about the same level, and have done approximately equal jobs against similar opponents.  However, I believe that Stanford has the better defense at this point in the season right now, and I think that will be the difference maker.

Eric: Stanford 31, Arizona 24

Computers: Stanford 34, Arizona 33 (54.5%)

#6 Alabama at #10 LSU

This is one of the games I’ve been waiting for since a couple weeks into the season.  Why have I been waiting for it so anxiously?

Because nothing would give me more pleasure than seeing Les Miles take the beating of a lifetime.  Of course, nothing would give me more pleasure than to see Nick Saban take the beating of a lifetime either – so I guess this game is really win/win for me!

There really is no way that LSU will be able to take out Alabama.  LSU’s ranking is entirely undeserved, based solely on the sheer number of wins they’ve managed to accumulate – despite the close calls.  It’s time for someone to make LSU suffer, and ‘Bama is the team to do it.

Eric: Alabama 34, LSU 21

Computers: Alabama 27, LSU 18 (79.2%)

#3 Texas Christian at #5 Utah

This may not be as close of a game as the rankings, and the pundits, may lead you to believe.  Utah has been a very strong team all year long, but they’ve played a couple of games a lot closer than they should have – Pittsburgh, for example.  This Utes team may not have what it takes to take out the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian.  Of course, if they do managed to eliminate the Horned Frogs, you have to think that Utah will be in very good position to grab a spot in the BCS title should Oregon or Auburn fall.  The Utes remaining schedule after this?  Notre Dame, San Diego State and Brigham Young.  Can you believe SDSU is the toughest of those three?  They’re already bowl eligible!

Texas Christian, though, wants that spot in the MNC for themselves.  It’s unlikely that Utah will be able to take them out, but they’ve certainly got more of a chance than Oregon State did, and the Beaver’s didn’t do a terrible job.

I’ll take the Utes.

Eric: Utah 35, TCU 34

Computers: TCU 33, Utah 26 (72.8%)