Picks for the Weak: Week 6

After last week’s exciting round of ranked intraconference games, this week will include a similar number of ranked intraconference games of the not-so-exciting variety.  LSU and Florida face off to find out who is the suckiest suck of suck town, and Alabama is set to roll over a potentially hapless South Carolina.  Of course, just cause they can, South Carolina will decide to be different and pull the upset.

Who am I kidding?  They’re South Carolina.

Despite the fact that more than a few of these games don’t look worth the time, there are still a few diamonds in the rough.  Michigan State/Michigan should be all sorts of interesting – especially if Denard Robinson proceeds to be decleated.  And there are a couple interconference matchups involving ranked Non-BCS teams that should be fun to watch.  Seriously, who wouldn’t want to watch Toledo pull a magical upset of Southern Idaho State?  Delicious.

So, before I give away all my picks in the intro, lets get to the games!

Thursday, October 7th

#7 Nebraska at Kansas State

Another Thursday night game pitting two undefeated teams.    Unfortunately for Kansas State, they’ve played no-one of note and struggled in games against UCLA (31-22), Iowa State (27-20) and UCF (17-13).  Granted they won them all, but is there anyone who thinks that it really matters?

Didn’t think so.

Eric: Nebraska 34, Kansas State 14

Computers: Nebraska 29, Kansas State 16 (90.1%)

Saturday, October 9th

#11 Arkansas at Texas A&M

Arkansas has had a week off to unwind and forget the tough close loss to Alabama 2 weeks ago.  There is no question that it’s only going to help them keep their focus while taking on a clearly overmatched Texas A&M squad.  Now, don’t get me wrong, TAMU is clearly on the track back to national prominence, but their close loss to Oklahoma State, especially after jumping out to the big lead early, shows that they’re not there yet.

Arkansas will mark one in the win column, despite the best efforts of Ryan Mallett to toss this away.  (I nearlysaid “Steven Threet”…it’s nearly impossible to keep track of all these Michigan Quarterback transfers!)

Eric: Arkansas 38, TAMU 24

Computers: Arkansas 43, TAMU 39 (70.3%)

Toledo at #4 Southern Idaho State

As I said before, it would be spectacular to see Toledo pull off the upset of SISU.  I really wouldn’t put it past them, either.  Tim Beckman has had Toledo on an upward climb for the last couple years and hasn’t been afraid to pit his team against the big dogs in the college football world.  They won’t shy away from this battle.

That said, the Broncos are a very good team despite what anyone says.  They’ll be able to take care of business at home, and not pull a Michigan in this one.

Eric: SISU 45, Toledo 10

Computers: SISU50, Toledo 19 (95%)

#10 Utah at Iowa State

Hey look!  A non-BCS powerhouse playing against a BCS team!  Granted it’s a poor-quality BCS team, but a BCS team it is none-the-less!  Amazing.  Apparently if you play by the rules and not demand a million dollars per game, people actually want to play you.  Funny that.

Keep in mind that the only game of note that Utah has played so far was against Pittsburgh (27-24 OT win).  That said, they have dominated all of their other opponents.  And Iowa State isn’t horrible.  They did manage to hang 52 on Tommy Tuberville’s Texas Tech squad last weekend, more than the 38 their defense gave up.

Utah will get past Iowa State, though the score might end up being closer than people expect.

Eric: Utah 28, Iowa State 23

Computers: Utah 37, Iowa State 20 (93.1%)

Oregon State at #9 Arizona

Oregon State has played a number of very good opponents so far this season, including TCU and Boise State (both losses).  They also took on Arizona State and escaped with the 3 point win.  Keep in mind that Arizona State has been on the threshold of a couple of big wins this year, so their record belies the quality of the team.

After a big win against Iowa 3 weeks ago, the Wildcats invited Cal into their home and escaped in the last minutes with the 10-9 victory.  They’ve since had a week off to refocus and prepare for the Beavers.

Oregon State has managed to hang with some of the better teams in the country this year.  It will be interesting to see how they fare against a potentially vulnerable Arizona team.

Eric: Oregon State 31, Arizona 27

Computers: Arizona 34, Oregon State 24

I might have to treat Mali harshly on this one.  He technically picked “ASU” to win this game.  Since he clearly means Arizona State, he better be hoping for the Sun Devils to charge into the stadium and demolish both teams simultaniously.  Impressive considering they have a game 4 hours later….in Washington….

USC at #16 Stanford

I was very impressed with Stanford, at least until the second half against Oregon.  The Ducks came out and completely shut down the Stanford offense to the tune of a mere 3 points through the half.  You can’t win games doing that, at least you can’t if you forsake Tresselball as well.

USC has not impressed anybody all season long and finally got exposed against similarly unimpressive Washington last week.  Stanford should be able to take their anger out on the Trojans and get back to their winning ways.

Eric: Stanford 34, USC 24

Computers: Stanford 41, USC 25 (90.1%)

#12 LSU at #14 Florida

Ugh.  I can’t think of a less interesting game between ranked foes.  Les Miles has to be one of the single worst coaches in Division 1 football, but he still keeps winning. It’s embarrassing that we once lost to the guy who needed Tennessee to screw up the number of guys they had on the field by an additional two in order to escape at home with the ball on the one yard line down 4 with 30 seconds left on the clock.  Oh my god that’s atrocious.

Florida, on the other hand, got literally curbstomped by Alabama.  If there was any question of just how bad Florida really is this year (comparitively), that should be it.  I had been waiting to see them exposed, but it took the #1 team in the nation to do it.

So the ultimate question in this one is will LSU’s superior athletes and crappy coaching outdo Florida’s superior coaching but subpar (again, comparitively) athletes?  The answer should obviously be Florida, but with Les Miles disgusting luck it’s tough to call.  I’ll take Florida on an uptick after the beatdown from Bama.

Eric: Florida 21, LSU 17

Computers: Florida 29, LSU 20 (70.3%)

#23 Florida State at #13 Miami

The Hurricanes have been looking dominant in their ACC games thus far.  There was concern that Jacory Harris was going to cost this team a lot during the course of the season, but so far his mistakes have been more limited than normal.  If he can continue to keep his mistakes down, Miami should have a good chance to run the table.

FSU has also looked strong in conference play, easily handling Wake Forest and Virginia and holding them to a combined 14 points.  They haven’t been so impressive out of conference, though, letting Oklahoma basically roll all over them.

This one should come down to Quarterback play, and FSU’s Christian Ponder should have the all around better day.

Eric: Florida State 24, Miami 20

Computers: Miami 38, FSU 31 (62.4%)

#17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan

The Spartans have been on a good run in this rivalry the last couple years, taking care of Michigan 2 years in a row.  Michigan is rolling into this high on confidence and riding the legs of Denard Robinson.  The question, though, is will Robinson be able to find success against one of the Big Ten’s better defensive teams?  This game will absolutely determine the course of Michigan’s season, and specifically the course of Denard’s Heisman hopes.

Michigan State’s Defense is 41st in total defense, clearly the strongest defense Michigan has faced all season.  For comparison, the next best was Conneticut at 51st.  Michigan’s defense is ranked 102nd in the nation.

Michigan State’s offense is 23rd in the nation, compared to Indiana’s 24th, so they stand a chance of putting up enough points to hang with the Wolverines.  This is simply going to come down to whether MSU’s defense can keep the offense in the game long enough to pull out the victory.  Given Dantonio’s track record, I think they can.

Eric: Michigan State 38, Michigan 35

Computers: Michigan State 37, Michigan 37 (56.4%)

Clearly the computer’s failed on this one.  The key to reading this is that Michigan State beats Michigan in 56% of their simulations.

#1 Alabama at #19 South Carolina

Alabama is on the warpath now.  Every team they face here on out has a bye before they play the Crimson Tide, putting Alabama in a tough position.  However, the way they’re playing right now, it’s going to be very difficult to beat them.

South Carolina is not exactly designed to take out the Tide.  The key is to limit the running game, which South Carolina’s defense is only ranked 41st in.  That’s probably not good enough to do the job.

Eric: Alabama 23, toUSC 17

Computers: Alabama 29, toUSC 16 (86.1%)