Picks for the Weak: Week 8

Things have gotten a little behind around these parts.  But, never fear!  We’ll have ourselves put back together in no time!

It’s amazing to think that the 15 week season is just about half over already. There’s been a lot of football played – and a lot of hearts broken. Luckily, there’s still a lot of football yet to be played! Should be exciting!

This week, we’re back to an excellent selection of games. 4 of our 10 pit ranked foes, while three others are exciting for other reasons. Seriously, who doesn’t want to watch hapless Miami (FL) take on the depleated Tarheels? It’ll be the turnover fest of a lifetime!

One thing is certain, though. Our picks will guide you through your near infinite choices this saturday!

Saturday, October 9th

Indina at Illinois

This seems like an unusual addition to the list.  Illinois has been a surprisingly steady Big Ten team thus far.  The loss to Michigan State did not help their season much, but they still have high hopes for the remainder.

Indiana is a surprisingly good team in their own right.  Bill Lynch seems to have them on the right long term track for success.  The question, though, is will he get there fast enough for the “win now” mentality of most fan-bases?  Probably not, but it would be nice to see what happens if he’s given another couple of years.

Illinois will not mop the floor with Indiana.  That said, the talent level of the Hoosiers is still a couple steps behind the rest of the conference.  Indiana will fight early and then succumb as usual.

Eric: Illinois 21, Indiana 10

Computers: Illinois 31, Indiana 28 (51.5%)

Rutgers at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is making yet another appearance in our set of 10.  We just can’t help but talk about the Mustache.

Actually, we specifically included Rutgers this week.  We wanted to send our best wishes out to DT Eric LeGrande.  Get well soon kid.

Rutgers has a resonable record (4-2) on the season so far.  In fact, that record is better than Pittsburghs 3-3.  However, Rutger’s two losses were to Tulane and North Carolina, and their most recent wins were Conneticut (by 3) and an overtime win over Army (by 3).

Yes, you read that right, Rutgers almost blew it to Army.  That should give you a good sense for how we feel about this one.

Eric: Pittsburgh 28, Rutgers 17

Computers: Pittsburgh 31, Rutgers 11 (88.1%)

North Carolina at Miami (FL)

Miami managed to come back after a shelacking to Florida State two weeks ago.  Nothing like a game against Duke to cleanse the record a little.  Now they have to face a potentially dangerous North Carolina team.  Most of UNC’s missing players have returned, though a couple have been indefinitely suspended for their activities.

I think Miami will struggle on Saturday.  This year’s “true” UNC will start to take hold on the ACC.

Eric: North Carolina 34, Miami 20

Computers: Miami 29, North Carolina 19 (75.2%)

#22 Kansas State at Baylor

Baylor is the minor surprise for the season.  We knew they were going to be good this year with their great starting quarterback Robert Griffin.  What we didn’t realize is that their only two losses (of 7 games so far) would be to Texas Tech and #4 TCU.  Unfortunately, the rest of their schedule is very challenging with Kansas State, #19 Texas, #14 Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and #1 Oklahoma still to come.  They need to find a win in there somewhere, and this one might be their best chance.

Unfortunately, Kansas State is having a banner year themselves.  Their only loss so far was to Nebraska.  Though, again, they haven’t really played anyone so far this season.

This will end up being a tough fight, and I think the Bears are up to the task.

Eric: Baylor 38, Kansas State 34

Computers: Baylor 32, Kansas State 19 (79.2%)

Air Force at #5 Texas Christian

The major surprise this season has been Air Force.  They only have two losses so far this season – a close loss to current #1 Oklahoma and a loss last week to San Diego State.  Air Force had a two point conversion try overturned by replay – so the game was a lot closer than even the score indicated.

TCU has been a solid and steady program the last couple years, but they might be overlooking Air Force a little bit after the Academy fell to SDSU.  I believe the Falcons might be able to pull out the upset.

Eric: Air Force 27, TCU 24

Computers: TCU 44, AFA 13 (95%)

#7 Michigan State at Northwestern

If anyone had come up to me early this season and said that Michigan State was going to be the #1 team in the Big Ten halfway through the season, I would have said that they were a season or two early.  MSU has clearly been on the rise since the hiring of Mark Dantonio, and it’s clear that its only going to get better from here.

But then there’s Northwestern.  The other up-and-comer in the conference that got suprised by Purdue a couple weeks ago.  They’ve had a week off since that loss to shake it off and get ready for the Spartans.  There is a great chance that Sparty will drop one this weekend and send the Big Ten into massive disarray.

Northwestern will come in hyped up and prepared.  The Spartans aren’t quite ready yet to carry the burden of the target.  The Wildcats will roll.

Eric: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 17

Computers: Michigan State 32, Northwestern 29 (65.3%)

#16 Nebraska at #14 Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is at number 14 this week?  I absolutely did not see this coming at all.  Of course, they’re currently sitting at 6-0, so they clearly deserve it.

Or do they?  A look at their opponents thus far suggests that the only teams they have played with a pulse are Texas A&M and Texas Tech.  Granted both teams are reasonably solid opponents, they are clearly not the caliber of Nebraska.  Especially a Nebraska team coming off a brutal loss to Texas.

You just have to know that the Blackshirts are going to take out some frustrations on the Cowboy’s offense.  Should be fun to watch.

Eric: Nebraska 38, T. Boone Picken’s University 24

Computers: T. Boone Picken’s University 31, Nebraska 25 (61.4%)

#13 Wisconsin at #15 Iowa

This game should give us a really good sense for the state of the conference.  An Iowa win gives a sense that the Hawkeyes will control their own destiny and give Michigan State a good fight next weekend.  A Wisconsin win suggests that MSU is the cream of the crop.

Iowa is a tough opponent to beat at home and Wisconsin might be riding a little high after their defeat of a #1 team last week (grumble grumble).  Iowa will catch the Badgers.

Eric: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 17

Computers: Iowa 30, Wisconsin 22 (69.3%)

#6 LSU at #4 Auburn

Surprise! Auburn is one of the few undefeated teams left in the SEC this year. Pop quiz as to whom the other one is.

Answer is of course the Lucky Les Miles Fan Club…also known as LSU.

Sound familiar?  That’s exactly what I wrote last week for the Auburn/Arkansas game.  The sad part is – it’s still true.  This game will decide who controls their own destiny in the SEC West.  Given how the East looks, that probably means that they’ll win the conference too.

LSU games are notoriously hard to call this year.  You’d think you could simply assume that Les Miles is gonna get lucky and call it a win for him, but it’s not that simple.  I maintain that someday the deal with the devil will come due and LSU will fall flat on their faces.

I don’t think this is the game, though.  Auburn is going to play a great game and put themselves in a position to win.  LSU will then proceed to pull yet another one out of Les Miles backside.

(Actually, I really hope to have jinxed Les Miles luck by picking him to win.  But, by saying this I’ve probably eliminated the jinx, so just forget I said anything.)

Eric: LSU 32, Auburn 31

Computers: Auburn 30, LSU 24 (67.3%)

#1 Oklahoma at #11 Missouri

Oklahoma?  Seriously?  Oklahoma is the number one team in the nation?  I could understand Oregon, I could understand Auburn, heck I could understand TCU or Boise State at this point.  But Oklahoma?  You’ve got to be kidding me.

Oklahoma’s best game so far was the depantsing of Florida State.  Sure that looks like a great game, but lets consider some of their other wins, shall we?

• 31-24 over Utah State
• 27-24 over Air Force
• 31-29 over Cincinnati (You know, 3-3 Cincinnati)
• 28-20 over Texas
• 52-0 over Iowa State (who got killed by Utah)

This is the number one team in the nation?  Right.  Quit kidding yourselves.  At least Missouri’s 6-0 record includes crushings of Colorado (26-0), Texas A&M (30-9)  and most of the lower level schools they’ve played.  A close win over San Diego State (who beat Air Force) is the only close game they’ve really had.

I believe we’re in for another week of the #1 team losing.  Brace yourselves, things are setting themselves up for a Boise State/TCU National Championship.

Eric: Missouri 24, Oklahoma 20

Computers: Oklahoma 32, Missouri 31 (52.5%)