The Pirates just grabbed Stanford rigthy Mark Appel, who some people had rated as the best player in the draft, with the eight overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft. Pre-draft, most people seemed to think that Appel was going to go either first to the Astros or second to the Twins, but I’m not sure it’s fair to think of this like the Pirates getting a second straight #1 overall type talent; this year’s draft was considered by most to be thin and while Appel is certainly an excellent college pitcher, Kevin Goldstein wrote just a few days ago that some scouts think Appel lacks “the wow-factor” of a 1-1 pick.
Appel’s fall from apparent #1 pick to #8 quickly illustrated the weirdness of these new draft rules. If Appel indicated that he was going to be difficult to sign to the Astros and the Astros decided he wasn’t worth the risk, as the signing pools diminish the risk vs. reward debate becomes even trickier. The Pirates have a total of $6.6 million to spend on their first 11 picks in this year’s first 10 rounds. If they exceed that total by less than 5% they pay a 75% tax on their draft bonuses. If they exceed that total by between 5% and 10%, they pay the tax and lose their first round pick in next year’s potentially much deeper draft. If they exceed that total by between 10% and 15%, they pay the tax lose next year’s first and second rounders. If they exceed the total by more than 15%, they pay the tax and lose their next two first rounders.
We’re not talking about a huge sum of money here to incur penalties. Five percent of $6.6 million is $330,000. If you go 15% over $6.6 million, you’re at just $7.59 million. That’s less than the Pirates paid Gerrit Cole last year. The Pirates have that money to spend on 11 draft picks, not just Mark Appel. So what is Mark Appel worth to a team? Certainly he’s worth punting some picks this year to free up the bonus room and he’s probably worth paying the tax for (though I think that teams that incur the tax don’t qualify for the weird welfare bonus picks after next year’s first round, but I’m not positive), but is he worth next year’s first rounder? More than that? Is drafting and signing Appel better than picking David Dahl at #8 and a good player at #45?
The upside, of course, is that the Pirates have another blue-chip arm in their system if Appel signs. He’s got a 93-95 mph fastball that tops out in the upper 90s, a good breaking pitch, and a decent curve. No team in baseball will have a trio quite like Cole/Taillon/Appel coming through the minors in the next few years. He’ll be in the system on July 16th. He’ll probably pitch for West Virginia this year, insteading of making his debut in the Arizona Fall League like Gerrit Cole did. That’s a significant advantage, and one that could put him pretty closely on the heels of Cole and Taillon if things go right (things never go right for the Pirates). The Pirates would have siginficant ammo to make a trade for young hitting, which they’re going to need at some point. In terms of talent that the Pirates could’ve added from the #8 spot in this particular draft, it’s hard to think the Pirates could’ve done better than Appel. The question is what the cost will be, both in the short-term of this year’s draft and down the road, if penalties come into play.
Of course, if the Pirates don’t sign Appel, they’ll have more money to spend on guys that might fall through the cracks for picks 1S-10. They’ll have the ninth overall pick for sure next year, though it’s not a slam dunk that a talented player like Appel would fall to that spot, even if the draft is deeper. My gut tells me the Pirates wouldn’t have picked Appel without thinking they had a real chance to sign him and a real strategy to get the deal done. At this point, I’m really interested to see how it all plays out; both Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington will be doing their best to manipulate this new system in their favor. Maybe the Pirates are already doing that; it’s a fair argument that the best use of the draft pool is to ensure they get the best player in the first round without worrying about later rounds. If that’s their strategy, the Pirates did about as well as they could tonight.
Still, there are a million questions at this point that I have absolutely no answer to. If we assume that Appel will sign for, say, $5.5 million, then the Pirates will operate on the assumption that they have $1.1 million to spend on picks 1S-10. But if Boras plays chicken until midnight on July 15th like he has in the past, how can the Pirates know if they have $1.1 million to spend on those players, or $6.6 million? What if they give up their draft for Appel, and then he doesn’t sign? Getting next year’s #9 pick would be an OK comp for not signing Appel, but losing the majority of a draft’s top ten for a player that doesn’t sign could be a disaster. I don’t honestly have a good answer for how this will shake out; I’m more intrigued by this pick because of the new rules than maybe any pick that this front office has made, including Alvarez. There are variables at play here that are just impossible to quantify. Like I said above, I’d tell you right now that I think Appel will sign, but I have no idea how we get to July 15th from here. I’ve got a hunch that it’s going to be a wild ride.
UPDATE: I’m still trying to verse myself on the vagaries of the new draft and so this part is important to remember: for every player the Pirates don’t sign in rounds 1-10, they lose the value of that bonus from their “pool.” So basically, they have to pick guys that will sign for significantly less than slot money so that they can apply all of the extra money to Appel. So the Pirates can’t functionally pay Appel $6.6 million, they can only pay him $6.6 million minus whatever it takes to sign the other ten picks. So … I’d be willing to bet that they’re paying the 75% tax on this draft if they end up signing Appel, though I’d be surprised if they were wiling to give up next year’s picks for him.
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