Now that the Pittsburgh Pirates have shuffled their outfield, how will the move help their biggest star at the plate?
Andrew McCutchen will now play right field for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This news does not come as much of a surprise, as McCutchen was one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game in 2016. His defensive runs saved was the worst in baseball at -28, more than doubling Miami Marlins’ CF Marcell Ozuna‘s -12, which was second worst in baseball. His Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) was -18.7, also worst among center fielders. With Starling Marte being one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, the position change makes perfect sense.
When it comes to defense, the change will undoubtedly help McCutchen immensely. Right field at PNC Park is the seventh smallest in the MLB so he will not have to cover nearly as much ground as in the past. The smaller area should also slightly mask McCutchen’s weak arm.
A bigger question looms.
How will he fair offensively?
On the surface, Pittsburgh Pirates might think the transition from center to right field would help with the bat. With less ground to cover in the outfield and less overall running around, McCutchen will likely conserve more energy. Over a 162 game season, that adds up. Nagging lower body injuries such as a hamstring strain become less painful. The job becomes a little easier.
Does a lesser defensive workload really translate to more success at the plate? Looking at two other players who have made the transition from center field to a corner spot, we can see if their numbers really differed from career norms. If so, could a 30-year old Andrew McCutchen follow a similar pattern?
Carlos Beltran
After two injury riddled seasons, Beltran made the move from center to right field in his age 34 season. Over the course of that year, Beltran hit .300/.385/.525 with 22 home runs and 39 doubles. He had a WRC+ of 152 which has been the second highest total of his career. In his previous 12 seasons while playing center field, Beltran hit .282/.359/.494 averaging 22 home runs a year.
Beltran was coming off of a two year stretch in which he totaled just 145 games played yet saw an uptick in offensive numbers over the following seasons.
In this case, Carlos Beltran’s outfield move benefited his career. For the past seven seasons, Beltran has played right field. Thanks to the change, he has been able to stay productive at the plate late into his career. Beltran will turn 40 years old in April. He will be making $16 million with the Houston Astros this season.
Matt Kemp
Kemp has been a corner outfielder for two seasons after spending eight years in center. Like McCutchen will be, Kemp made the made the move to right field in his age 30 season. Being a career .292/.349/.495 hitter averaging 20 home runs, Kemp hit .265/.312/.443 with 23 home runs in his first year playing the right field. Last year, he hit .268/.304/.499 with 35 home runs. That was just the second time in his career that he has hit more than 30.
Overall, Kemp has seen a decline in batting average ever since finishing second for the MVP in 2011. His home run total has slightly increased over the past two seasons but his slugging percentage hasn’t. There is a valid case to be made that Kemp may have turned into this type of player regardless of position switch, though the power numbers would have likely faded.
What does this mean for McCutchen?
2017 will be a crucial year for McCutchen. He knows it. The Pittsburgh Pirates know it.
Everyone knows it.
Whether a move to right field helps him stay fresh at the plate has yet to be seen. It definitely can’t hurt. Best case scenario, the move to a corner outfield spot could help McCutchen stabilize back to career norms before 2016. If that is the case, 2017 will be a successful year for the Pirates. Even if a move to right field helps Andrew McCutchen hit .285/.370/.460 with his usual 20-25 home runs, the club would likely welcome that from a key bat in the middle of their lineup.
If McCutchen happens to revert back to his 2016 self, the move to right field would hurt future trade value as corner outfielders are a more common commodity than center fielders. A light hitting center fielder is okay. A light hitting corner outfielder is not nearly as valuable.
All in all, the move to right field should help all facets of McCutchen’s game. He will be a dependable right fielder. If he can hit the ball effectively this season in part thanks lesser defensive responsibilities, consider this year’s outfield revamp a success.
[catposts]Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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