Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 Gradeout – Andrew McCutchen

The Pittsburgh Pirates had a disappointing 2016 season. As the off-season begins, it is time to grade out the club. Today we look at former National League MVP Andrew McCutchen.

For Pittsburgh Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen, 2016 was the very definition of a lost season. He started the year in a new spot in the batting order and a fresh outlook on a new season.

By the time it was all over, McCutchen had slogged through what was easily his worst season of his career.

Early Struggles Gave Way to Lasting Slumps

The 2013 National League MVP struggled out of the gate, posting a .226/.339/.441 slashline. That in itself is not surprising – McCutchen is a notoriously slow starter – but the drop off between his previous slow starts and the first month of his 2016 season was alarming. Not only did he fall short of his usual opening stanza slash of .255/.344/.423, he also showed an alarming strikeout tendency. Carrying a 17.8 percent strikeout rate for his career and a 20.6 percent rate for his career in April, McCutchen came out of the gate with a 26.9 percent strikeout clip.

Perhaps it was then that we should have known that something was not quite right with McCutchen. Those fears were likely put aside on April 26th against the Colorado Rockies. That night, McCutchen had a game to remember, with three home runs and five RBI. Still just batting .238 at the time, fans and observers alike felt strongly that the game could be a wake up call of sorts.

His month-by-month splits tell the tale of early season struggles turning into something more sinister.

 

 

McCutchen’s woeful June was due in part to a nagging thumb injury impacting his swing. Regardless, a hitter with a career on base percentage of .381 struggled to get on base, posting a .255 clip. His 30.3 strikeout rate for that month was easily the worst rate of any month in his career. He drew only seven walks in the month, and followed that up with five in July.

In years’ past, McCutchen would not get many hittable pitches. He had to earn the ones he did see through outstanding patience. With that legendary approach now failing him, pitchers came after him with more consistency.

It is nearly impossible to determine to what degree the thumb injury plagued him, but it is worth noting that the Pittsburgh Pirates had their worst month in June with a 9-19 record, creating a hole they could not dig themselves out of.

Consistent Power?

Perhaps we are being unkind, and McCutchen did not have as bad of a season as it would appear. After all, his numbers were right at or near his career averages, as Bleacher Report points out.

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

Looking at McCutchen’s 2016 versus his five year averages, the eye is immediately drawn to his batting average and strikeouts, which we analyzed above. His stolen bases have fallen off the map, but that is a given as McCutchen’s role as a consistent base stealer has steadily eroded. The 10 RBI difference can easily be attributed to a down year, and is only five RBI off of his MVP pace.

McCutchen’s power stroke, on the other hand, is right on the nose of his five year average. This can be considered a small victory in an otherwise bumpy season. Or can it?

A closer look at the outfielder’s home run totals shows that seven of these 24 home runs – 29.2 percent – came in three games. A further look at his home run log shows that the long balls tend to come in bunches. McCutchen had consecutive games with a home run three separate times, and still others came within days of each other.

As Pedro Alvarez showed us in 2015, all home runs are not created equal. The Pittsburgh Pirates will take the 24 home runs, but would perhaps benefit more from their MVP being a more consistent threat.

Defensive Woes More Pronounced

In playing such a high-profile position, Andrew McCutchen’s mistakes and misread are often magnified.

While advanced defensive metrics lag far behind their offensive brethren, several key statistics show that McCutchen has lost another step defensively in 2016. MLB.com’s Adam Berry has a fantastic write up of just how bad the center fielder has gotten defensively, and it’s not pretty.

From Berry’s piece:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”Adam Berry, MLB.com” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]By two prominent figures —defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating — McCutchen was the worst fielder in baseball this year. His DRS total (minus-28) was the lowest in the Majors, and his UZR (minus-17.6) was better than only shortstop Alexei Ramirez.[/perfectpullquote]

Despite this, McCutchen does not yet feel the need to move from centerfield. From the same piece, the 29 year-old was defiant to those who say that he has better value in another outfield spot. “I don’t see myself needing to move. I don’t feel like I’m slowing down and hurting my team because of where I play,” McCutchen said.

That day is coming. It may be as soon as next year. When that time does come – whether it is with the Pittsburgh Pirates or otherwise – McCutchen would do well to accept the move as one that may prolong his career.

Conclusions & Final Grade

Everything listed above contributes to Andrew McCutchen’s 2016 grade, but they are distinctively magnified when accounting for the role that the Pittsburgh Pirates expect him to play. He had a down year. It happens. It is not necessarily a death sentence. Other hall-of-fame caliber players have rebounded, and rebounded well.  However, the Pirates are built around McCutchen’s bat, and a down year from their offensive stalwart brought the club back down to earth in a big way.

Here now is McCutchen’s 2016 gradeout.

A C-grade seems fitting for a C-level season. It will remain to be seen if McCutchen can bounce back from his 2016 campaign. His competitiveness is legendary, and it may just fuel his fire to the point that a rebound is all but assured. Nothing will be certain until we see it on the field, however.

Andrew McCutchen has a ton of work to do to get back to his MVP level. The Pittsburgh Pirates know it. He knows it. The fans know it.

All that’s left to do now is wait to see how McCutchen responds to his first true taste of adversity.

What Grade Would You Give McCutchen?

Agree with our grade? Disagree? Hop over to our Twitter feed and cast your vote on McCutchen’s 2016 grade.

Here are the results thus far:

How would you grade out Andrew McCutchen's 2016?

— Jason Rollison (@jrollisonpgh) October 5, 2016