2016 projection systems are out in full force for your Pittsburgh Pirates. What do the experts say about Andrew McCutchen’s 2016 season?
This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you the readers their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below the projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. To get this started, let’s begin with the undisputed best player on the team, Andrew McCutchen.
Despite some perceived shortcomings, mostly everyone can agree that Andrew McCutchen is the best player to suit up in a Pirates uniform in a long time.
Sure, guys like Brian Giles, Jason Bay, and Freddy Sanchez all put together good seasons while with the Pirates. But no one in recent years has put together a string of MVP caliber years like McCutchen has while patrolling center field at PNC Park.
Since 2012, McCutchen has finished each season in the top five of NL MVP voting and took the award home in 2013. What is remarkable about this is that McCutchen arguably had a better season in 2012 when he finished third than in 2013. Since 2012, McCutchen has has hit at least 20 home runs and collected at least 80 RBIs to go along with an OPS of at least .800 (with marks of .952 and .953 in 2014 and 2012 respectively) in each season.
It’s no surprise then that he has won the Silver Slugger award every year since 2012. When you consider the extension signed by McCutchen a few years back, this type of consistent production is an incredible value when compared to what other players near his talent level are making.
In 2015, McCutchen was hobbled by a persistent knee injury for at least half of the season yet still put together an All-Star campaign. Below are McCutchen’s numbers from the last two seasons along with his Steamer and ZiPS projections for 2016. Are the projections realistic?
[table id=35 /]What really stands out in McCutchen’s numbers from 2014-15 when compared to the two sets of projections is how close they all are. This stands as a testament to McCutchen’s consistency with the bat and on the base-paths.
His stolen base totals have been going down in recent years and both projections see him stealing less than fifteen bases next season. With McCutchen firmly implanted in the third spot in the order, there is no need to risk injury with a large number of stolen base attempts. McCutchen will continue to pick his spots.
With Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez gone, the Pirates day-to-day lineup will look much different in 2016. Walker spent time in the cleanup spot, but so did both of McCutchen’s current teammates Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang. One of them will likely see the lion’s share of at-bats as the number four hitter.
Even with the lineup seeing big changes from last season, I think that McCutchen will surpass 90 runs and RBIs next season.
The projections both think that McCutchen will hit 23 home runs in 2016, matching his total from 2015. I am going to be more optimistic and say that McCutchen approaches 30 home runs next season. One thing that could affect this, though, is who is batting behind him. He’ll need a serious threat behind him in the order, because pitchers could choose to work around him and limit the number of good pitches he sees each at-bat. But with the absence of a home run threat like Alvarez, McCutchen may need to help make up for the home run threat in Alvarez that is no longer with the club.
I agree with both projections when it comes to McCutchen’s stolen base total for 2016. He hasn’t run as much in recent years, and with Gregory Polanco and Marte both threats to run anytime they are on base, I would imagine this trend will continue.
Now I’ll turn it over to you, the readers. How do you think McCutchen will do in 2016? Will he top 30 home runs for the second time in his career, or will he hit less than that as he has done in recent years? Are the projections incorrect and will McCutchen go back to being a serious threat to steal a base in 2016? Let us know what you think!
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