This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Yesterday, Ethan Obstarczyk analyzed the projections for Chris Stewart; let’s continue with the return of the Pittsburgh Pirates latest reclamation project, Ryan Vogelsong.
On December 18, 2015, Pittsburgh Pirates fans everywhere were shocked with the sudden announcement that the team had signed Ryan Vogelsong to a one-year, major league deal nearly ten seasons after he departed for Japan after his first stint with the team.
In 2016, Vogelsong has the chance to earn up to $5.1 million between a $2 million guaranteed base salary and $3.1 million in performance incentives.
Per @AP #Pirates Ryan Vogelsong is guaranteed $2M in his one-year contract and can earn $3.1M more in performance bonuses #WTAE
— Andrew Stockey (@astockeyWTAE) December 21, 2015
San Francisco Giants and Pirates fans both quickly turned to social media to react to the move. Giants fans seemed heartbroken that Vogelsong would leave once again to go to the Pirates. Pirates fans, difficult to please unless it’s a household name, berated the signing as the characteristically stingy spending habits of the front office. Here are a couple of the most unoriginal, yet amusing ones:
https://twitter.com/interst8forty4/status/678219968492740610
Guys, it's cool. Pirates didn't really sign Ryan Vogelsong. Steve Harvey just read the card wrong.
— Chris Mack (@THEChrisMack) December 21, 2015
For better or worse, the Pirates did sign Vogelsong, as they hope to turn one team’s trash into their treasure once again. Someone already did it once with him. During his stint in Japan, Vogelsong held a record of 11-14 with an average ERA of 4.22 over 34 starts and 28 relief appearances in three seasons between 2007 and 2009. He returned to the United States in 2010 to pitch in the minor leagues with the Phillies’ and Angels’ organizations before being released from both clubs. Just like the Pirates are preparing to do, the Giants gave him a second chance.
In 2011, Ryan Vogelsong defied a career trend of rather lackluster stats to appear in the All-Star Game. He pitched to the tune of a 13-7 record and a 2.71 ERA over 179.2 innings in 28 starts. His ability to give up moderately few walks and home runs, coupled with a dramatic rise to 7.0 K/9 (well over his first go-round in the league), helped him pitch to a career low FIP. In 2012, he experienced regression to his career averages, yet it still resulted in an effective season for him. Over 31 starts, he posted a 3.37 ERA and 14-9 record in 189.2 innings. He allowed walk and home run totals consistent with his 2011 campaign, but he also saw a career high rise in strikeout rate to 7.5.
In 2013, he was self-destructing until he got hit on the hand while batting against Craig Stammen on May 20. The pitch broke two bones and dislocated a joint. He lowered his season ERA by 1.46 when he returned after a 12-week layoff on the disabled list. Vogelsong carried his late-2013 success over into 2014 to the impressive recovery of a 4.00 ERA, but he left the Giants on a low note with a 4.67 ERA, unless you consider his remarks at the end of the season a celebration rather than the ravings of an aging man accepting the end of his career.
ZiPS projections have yet to be released for Ryan Vogelsong, but the Steamer projections are rather friendly. Steamer projects Vogelsong to have a 4.41 ERA over 19 starts and 109.0 innings. It projects him to have 0.6 WAR with a 3.09 BB/9 rate and 6.56 K/9 rate, nd both the walk and strikeout rate projections are decreased from his 2015 numbers. For further comparison, see Vogelsong’s 2014 and 2015 stats compared with his 2016 projections in the table below:
[table id=46 /]Despite finishing with a record of 84-78, the Giants finished eight games behind the division champion Dodgers in the NL West and 13 games back of the Cubs for the second wild card spot. The combination of Vogelsong’s age, a poor 2015, the Giants’ team performance, and a trade to a team that prides itself on its ability to produce and field groundballs led to the poor, yet fair, Steamer projection for 2016.
Make no mistake, Ryan Vogelsong was brought back to Pittsburgh and given a chance to be in the rotation because he is a poor man’s Charlie Morton. Neal Huntington has said as much. When asked about why Vogelsong was signed, Huntington said, “Because of [Vogelsong’s] desire to come back and pitch in Pittsburgh, the contract he has agreed to allows us to redistribute dollars elsewhere.” Being a champion in 2012 and 2014 also factored in: “He’s been where we’re working to get to. He’s going to be able to share that experience and what he’s seen and heard along the way toward those championship clubs.” Vogelsong will have to beat the odds to remain on the team., though, as Huntington also said, “As we sit here today, we plan on [Vogelsong] being in our rotation. He’s going to have to continue to pitch well enough to keep that spot.”
That’s not merely a poorly worded statement either. The 19 starts he’s projected for in 2016 would mean his removal from the rotation would come around the first week of August, which will be well after the Super 2 deadline that would mean avoiding an extra year of arbitration for one or both of Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon. While Vogelsong has consistently put up high groundball rates for every pitch except his slider throughout each season since returning to the majors, he has consistently built velocity as the season goes on. It hardly seems fair to Vogelsong that he will be replaced with one of the up-and-coming prospects right when he typically performs his best.
The key to Vogelsong lasting even that long in the rotation will depend on his ability to make any adjustments with Ray Searage, continue to limit walks and home runs, produce ground balls at insane rates, and rely on his defense and offense to pick him up. In 2015, of the 11 starts in which he allowed three or more runs, the Giants won only one game. Conversely, of the 11 starts in which he allowed less than three runs, the Giants lost only one game. With an offense with a lot of question marks, the Pirates aren’t going to be able to have the same run support problems starting pitchers (A.J. Burnett in particular) have experienced during good outings the past few years.
I don’t see the perfect storm happening this time. It all comes down to the progress he makes in spring training. Without an appearance at mini-camp, it would be hard to judge what Vogelsong can provide until then. One thing is certain: Searage and the other coaches are going to have their work cut out for them. Any adjustments to help Vogelsong amp up his strikeout numbers will go a long way towards making him a viable option at the back end of the rotation. Even then, any effort may just be to add another competitive arm to the bullpen mix later on in the season. In any case, the Steamer projections seem like a fair model unless Vogelsong shows something dramatically different in spring training.
Let’s all hope the version in that video is the Ryan Vogelsong that shows up once again to PNC Park in 2016 because if he doesn’t, the countdown for Tyler Glasnow will be on.
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