Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 Projections – Tony Watson

Can Tony Watson escape the abysmal projections for him in 2016, or will he fall victim to regression?

This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you the readers their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Yesterday, Ethan Obstarczyk analyzed the projections for Andrew McCutchen; let’s continue with the Pittsburgh Pirates setup man Tony Watson.

As Greg Brown has put on numerous occasions, Tony Watson’s performance has been “elementary,” a catchphrase of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s literary invention Sherlock Holmes. Simply, Watson is one of the best setup men in baseball. He’s one of the best relievers in the game bar none.

He gets his due attention, but he has also been overshadowed, in large part, by team closer and 2015 MLB saves leader Mark Melancon, who was elected to the All-Star game for his performance. In 2015, Melancon also set the franchise record for saves, previously set by Mike Williams in 2002. Not to be outdone, Watson set his own records in 2015. He broke the record for most holds in Pirates’ history with 41.  He has the most holds in baseball over the past three seasons, posting 22, 34, and 41 holds, respectively. Together, Melancon and Watson faced and overcame a heavy workload each of the past three seasons.

It has been widely debated whether or not the Pirates will try to get out from under Melancon’s anticipated substantial pay raise in 2016. The closer is expected to make upwards of $10 million in arbitration, almost one-tenth of the self-imposed payroll limit to start the season. As a result, Watson was interrogated at PirateFest about whether he was ready to be the closer. He responded with the calm poise you would expect from an elite setup man saying, “I’m not the closer. It’s his job, but if something were to happen, I definitely have confidence in myself that I could get the job done for us.”

Overworked and in the midst of the shroud of mystery surrounding the fate of Melancon, projections are unkind to Tony Watson.

The Steamer and ZiPS projections form a paradox. Some of Watson’s stats are projected to near career-high levels, for better or for worse, while others seem uncharacteristically low in comparison to his success over the last three years, most notably the Steamer prediction for a drop to a mere 14 holds with only a nearly inconsequential rise in saves to 6.

For starters, both projections anticipate Watson to regress to and eclipse his career average for ERA. The Steamer projection went so far as to predict he will return to his highest ERA since 2012, when he posted a 3.38 ERA, the second highest ERA of his career. The spike in ERA comes with a dramatic rise in runs allowed, which is projected at 25 for Steamer and 22 for ZiPS, either of which would be a career high. The run projection comes with a rise in BABIP to .288 and .283 for Steamer and ZiPS, respectively.  Neither would be a career high, albeit far closer than the .252 he posted last season. Opposing batters posted a career high for BABIP of .306 in 2014, the same year Watson made his first All-Star game appearance. The rise in ERA, runs, and BABIP come with a negative opinion of Watson’s ability and the ability of the defense protecting him.

Watson is predicted to post a 1.1 zWAR, relatively consistent with his WAR the last two years of 1.5 and 1.4. The Steamer projection of 0.6 WAR would be his lowest since 2013. He should give up 58 hits according to Steamer and 60 for ZiPS, and both are consistent with what he has allowed over the last few years.The only difference is it will come in the fewest number of innings he has pitched since 2012. He will put out nearly identical strikeout and walk numbers to 2015, which is good for a K/9 rate of 8.45 (Steamer) and 8.10 (ZiPS) and a BB/9 rate of 2.40 (Steamer) and 1.93 (ZiPS).

The frequent use of the back end of the bullpen has brought into question the reliability of both of the Pirates most important relievers moving forward into 2016 and, in Watson’s case, beyond.  This expectation has resulted in Tony Watson being cheated to the tune of the 2016 projection for an average to below average late-inning reliever.

Sherlock Holmes is most famous for variations of one quote, most often said to Dr. Watson from The Sign of the Four: “How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”

The truth is it is not impossible for Watson to collapse and regress to his career average or worse, but a very slight drop in velocity for all of his pitches according to pitch f/x has not been accompanied with any relative inconsistencies in movement or whiff percentages. Another truth is that Tony Watson is an elite reliever, arguably the best reliever the Pirates have had in quite some time. However, he will most likely need a reduction in workload to maintain the success he has had, which relies heavily on the ability and consistency of a questionable back-end of the rotation and some high velocity reclamation projects in the bullpen. His workload and performance could also be dramatically effected by what the Pirates decide to do with Mark Melancon between now and October.

I believe Watson will regress a little more towards his career averages, in large part because of his workload. I predict about a 2.12-2.25 ERA over 65-68 innings. I believe he will stay in line with his career averages for strikeouts and walks, as about 58-63 batters will strikeout with about 14-17 walks. I believe a healthier McCutchen, more experienced Polanco, and better defense at each of the bases will actually lower the BABIP in 2016 to roughly .240. I believe he will stay pretty consistent in the run column at around 18, but I think a few more will come off the home run this year for an end of year total of 7. His holds should be in the 31-35 range, unless he has to take over for Melancon in the event of a trade or an injury. Except in either of those events, his saves will once again be negligible, only being brought on for a save to give Melancon a break after saving multiple games in a row or if Melancon had been used earlier in the game.

I believe these projections find a happy medium between the Steamer and ZiPS projections and the exceptional performance Watson has produced over the last three years. Let us know what you think by sounding off in the comments below or on social media. Is it naïve to assume Watson beats the stigma that excessive workloads wear down solid relievers, or is it elementary that he will remain the epitome of consistency in 2016?

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