The 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates as Explained by WAA

The 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates have been very hard to quantify in many areas during the first quarter of the season.

If we look at how they compare against the rest of the National League in Wins Above Average (WAA), the picture becomes a bit clearer.

WAA vs WAR

By now, most should be familiar with Wins Above Replacement, or WAR. For those unaware, WAR attempts to quantify a player’s value over a replacement level (or in other words, “Freely Available”) player.

WAA is seen by some as a more valid measurement of a player’s worth. In measuring a player by the average Major League level performance at his position, a clearer picture starts to develop of someone’s true worth.

High Heat Stats had a great read on this, and this passage from that piece rings true:

[pullquote align=”full” cite=”High Heat Stats” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]WAR rewards you for just being there. WAA does not.[/pullquote]

With that being said, how do the Pittsburgh Pirates measure up to other NL teams in terms of WAA, and what can we learn from the rankings?

Let’s start with a reminder of how the rankings shook out last year.

2015 NL WAA Rankings By Position

Stats and image provided by Baseball-Reference

If one did not actually watch many Pittsburgh Pirates games last year, they could likely reconstruct their season from this chart. The club got great value at many positions, and one could easily make the argument that their pitching – specifically, the bullpen –  carried them through the year. The team overcame some challenges – Pedro Alvarez at first base, prolonged slumps by Gregory Polanco – but their stars (Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Starling Marte) coupled with a few surprises (Francsico Cervelli, Jung Ho Kang) carried the team to 98 wins.

The chart for 2016 shows just how different the club’s makeup is year-over-year.

2016 NL WAA Rankings by Position

Stats and image provided by Baseball-Reference

A look across these rankings tells us a great deal about the team in a year-over-year capacity.

• Obviously, the biggest sea change for the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2015 has been their pitching. It doesn’t take an “advanced” statistic to tell you that the hurlers, both starters and relievers, are struggling. One need look no further than last night’s start from Francisco Liriano to see why the club is struggling to wring solid performances out of their starters. In throwing just 48 strikes in his 98 pitches, Liriano’s lack of fastball command has wiped away the great advantage that his secondary pitches enjoyed in 2015. (For more on Liriano’s changing pitching philosophy, I cannot recommend this piece by Fangraphs enough. The bullpen has been under fire in short-to-middle relief, and though they look to be rounding into form, the trio of Neftali Feliz, Tony Watson and Mark Melancon have also been question marks at times. Before this season is over, there is no conceivable path that leads to the Pittsburgh Pirates remaining in the bottom half of the NL in pitcher WAA. However, this will need to turn around in a hurry if the team is truly to contend for the NL Central.
• The wild swing in WAA at the 1B position represents just how much of a bargain John Jaso really is. A 3.2 swing in WAA for $4 million per year is great value. WAA takes into account fielding and hitting. Jaso has excelled at both. He is beating the shift with regularity, and has shown great aptitude for a position he has never regularly played before.
• Though he has hit well all year, Cervelli – and Chris Stewart, to a much lesser extent – find themselves below average in terms of WAA. This should improve as the season goes on, as the Pirates’ catchers form a better hitting tandem than many realize.
• Elsewhere, the Pirates’ stars are carrying them, with Marte and Polanco in particular enjoying fine starts. This leads to the Pirates’ having the best OF by WAA, ahead of the also young-and-promising Marlins outfield. Third base – occupied by David Freese for most of the year, is a surprising below-average ranking, but this will only improve with Kang finding his form more nad more with each passing day.

If there was one statistic to explain a team’s performance, an entire industry of sports writing and analysis would wither away into the dust. While not perfect, Wins Above Average is a good indicator of performance thus far, and it shows that the Pittsburgh Pirates have a dramatically different club than they did in 2015.

Featured Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography