SS Jordy Mercer (4.095 years), projected $4 million: Would you believe me if I told you 2016 was Jordy Mercer’s best offensive season and worst defensive season as the Pirates’ full-time shortstop? He set career highs in hits (133) and walks (51) at the plate, but advanced metrics showed a steep drop-off with his glove. His defensive runs saved have fallen from +9 in 2014 to -9 in 2016, and his -10.1 UZR/150 last season was by far the worst of his career at the position.
Mercer’s 1.3 fWAR last season was 20th out of 23 qualified MLB shortstops, and the talk of Kevin Newman being close to the majors doesn’t help Mercer’s long-term outlook. But for a projected salary that falls directly between the Cardinals’ two shortstop options, Jedd Gyorko ($6 million) and Aledmys Diaz ($2.5 million), it is not unreasonable by any stretch to tender that amount to Mercer without an expected output to match.
RHP Jared Hughes (4.162 years), projected $2.5 million: Even if Hughes doesn’t re-discover his form from 2012-15, he has pitched well enough over the past five seasons to earn maybe twice as much next season. Over the last five seasons, Hughes has thrown 298.1 innings, fifth-most among qualified NL relievers, and he has the ninth-best groundball rate (60.8%) with a 2.78 ERA that ranks 27th out of 125 pitchers.
A lat strain in Spring Training caused Hughes to miss the entire month of April on the disabled list, which likely helped lead to his second-highest ERA (3.03) and second lowest GB% (57.9) since 2012. But assuming Hughes has no setbacks going into this season, there is no reason he shouldn’t get back to his old self, and perhaps his 2.73 ERA in the second half of the season suggests he already has. If that holds, Hughes will help stabilize the back end of the Pirates’ bullpen once again with one of their best contracts in terms of value.
And the Rest
Here we have two pitchers with intriguing stories. One was involved in one of the most hotly debated trade in Pittsburgh Pirates history, and the other was a late season pickup who acquitted himself quite well.
RHP Drew Hutchison (3.165 years), projected $2.2 million: Hutchison’s contract may not be worth as much as the other starters on this list, but there may be more riding on his than any other pitcher not named Cole or Watson. There are some things about Hutchison that are encouraging, like a strikeout rate of 8.29 and FIP of 3.76 the first time through the batting order, and then improving to 9.26 K/9 and 3.60 FIP the second time through. But would an Ivan Nova-like adjustment to relying more on his two-seam fastball lead to better results over time?
The Pirates have much work to do with Hutchison in terms of maximizing his repertoire, and shifting to the two-seamer might be the best place to start. Per Pitch f/x, he threw the pitch only 0.5% of the time last season, and his four-seamer 62.8% of the time. During his debut season of 2012, he threw the two-seamer 8.1% of the time – the most he has in any season in the big leagues – and that led to his highest groundball rate (44.6%) and likely helped lead to his best ERA in a single season (4.60). That kind of tweak could make Hutchison a much more effective starting option and his contract much more bearable through two more potential seasons of control after 2017.
LHP Wade LeBlanc (3.131 years), projected $1.6 million: Whether the Pirates decide to tender LeBlanc a contract will depend on which evidence they choose to believe. On the surface, LeBlanc’s career numbers suggest he is a reverse-split pitcher; left-handed batters have hit .303/.355/.524 against him, and right-handers .255/.325/.428. But then something happened this past season: those numbers switched up.
Lefties hit only 11-for-51 (.216) with only one walk and nine strikeouts against LeBlanc in 2016, and right-handers even performed somewhat below his career norms, hitting .253/.290/.511 in 200 plate appearances. In eight appearances as a Pirate, he allowed only one earned run on seven hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts in 12 innings. So, the question remains: which Wade LeBlanc will we see in 2017? Given the likelihood of Watson or Felipe Rivero as the Pirates’ closer, there will be a need for LeBlanc as an extra lefty in the bullpen, and the most recent version could be a good long-term investment for a discounted price and three full years of control.
Arbitration is a Fickle Mistress
There you have it, a complete look at what the Pittsburgh Pirates can expect in arbitration. Higher arbitration salaries are, by definition, the byproduct of on-the-field success. The effects of arbitration raises on a team like the Pirates – a team looking to rebound and who is one or two pieces away – can be significant. Asset management is critical in situations like the one Pittsburgh finds itself in, and arbitration certainly does not help.
Josh Taylor is an award-winning sports broadcasting personality appearing on KDKA‘s sports coverage and programming.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
