With new baserunning coaches, have the Pittsburgh Pirates improved on the bases in 2017?

The Pittsburgh Pirates were dreadful on the basepaths in 2016 and it led to the firing of two coaches on manager Clint Hurdle’s staff, but have they improved or declined on the basepaths?

The biggest change that the Pittsburgh Pirates made this offseason was not which players they jettisoned or acquired. Rather, it was the change of the guard among base coaches. Rick Sofield and Nick Leyva, adios! Kimera Bartee and Joey Cora, hola!

Through 44 games, the Pirates 20-24 and last in the National League Central Division. Certainly injuries and offensive struggles have been catalysts to the slow start, but what about base-running? Have the Pirates improved or regressed on the basepaths this season?

Let’s start with the simplest way to judge base running.

Stolen bases

In 2016, the Pirates stole 110 bases and averaged 0.68 stolen bases per game, both eighth best in MLB. Additionally, Pittsburgh baserunners were caught stealing 45 times, finishing third highest of 30 teams. Starling Marte led the Pirates with 47 stolen bases, which was also the third best total in MLB.

This season, the Pirates are 14th in MLB with 21 stolen bases but have been caught stealing 19 times, which tied for the most in MLB with the Texas Rangers. Pittsburgh’s stolen bases per game are down to 0.49 in 2017. Additionally, its stolen base attempts per game have dropped 0.03 down to 0.93 this season.

Now, let’s get more technical and specific.

BsR

BsR is FanGraph’s Base Running statistic “that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average,” per its website. FanGraphs also says that BsR is the base running component of WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

This stat, likely many of the upcoming advanced statistics, is about more than just stolen bases. BsR cannot be used as a team stat just like WAR can’t. This makes comparing years of BsR slightly difficult, but we’ll instead compare individual players.

Cincinnati Reds’ centerfielder Billy Hamilton leads MLB with a 5.4 BsR in 2017. No Pittsburgh Pirate with at least 50 plate appearances has a BsR higher than Andrew McCutchen’s 0.7. Pittsburgh’s leader this season is Allen Hanson with a 1.2 BsR. Consider that Hanson only has seven hits and two walks in 42 plate appearances. His BsR importance is relatively minute given his limited opportunities to make a difference on the base paths.

Last season, the Pirates had three solid base runners in terms of BsR. Marte (7.0), Jordy Mercer (3.6) and Josh Harrison (3.2) were the Pirates three best base runners and the only three Pirates to post BsR’s above 2.0. Again, the loss of Marte has hurt the Pirates in another facet. Not only was Marte a great base stealer, but he was a smart base runner.

UBR

Unlike BsR, the next three statistics used can be related to a team level, so we can get a better look at how the Pirates rank as a team compared to their peers.

This starts with Ultimate Base Running. UBR looks at a player’s value on non-stolen base plays. For example, when a player gets thrown out when trying to tag up on a fly ball, his UBR will be affected negatively.

Here’s a look at the Pirates UBR in 2016 and 2017:

Biggest takeaway: Jordy Mercer has one stolen base in the last two years and 10 in his major-league career, but is a smart base runner. No Pirates appeared among MLB’s top 30 leaders in UBR last season and Mercer (No. 23) is the only Pirates in the top 30 this season.

Thus far, there is slight improvement for the Pirates in 2017, but they are still below-average at decision-making on the base paths.

SPD

Now it’s time to shift to Speed Score. The godfather of advanced statistics, Bill James, invented this statistic and it calculates Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage.

If you are wondering why Percentage of Triples is included in this statistic, recall that most players that hit triples slide into third base. Why does a player sliding into third matter? Because so often, triples are based on a runner’s judgment plus his third base coach’s judgment on whether a ball was hit deep enough to warrant heading to third.

Here’s how the Pirates ranked compared to the rest of MLB in 2016 and 2017 in terms of Spd.

Biggest takeaway: The Pirates have taken a major step back in Spd in 2017 individually. Not only did Marte lead the Pirates and MLB in Spd in 2016, but Harrison was second on the Pirates and MLB with a 6.8 Spd and Gregory Polanco was 30th with a 5.6 Spd. That’s three Pirates in the top 30 last year.

This year, the Pirates have zero players in the top 30 in Spd. Hanson is the Pirates’ unofficial leader with a 9.3 Spd, but he does not qualify among league-leaders.

wSB

Let’s get back to those stolen bases now, shall we? Weighted Stolen Bases looks specifically and only at stolen bases by comparing a player’s ability to steal to the average base stealer. It’s an advanced stat with an unusual acronym, but it’s not very complicated.

Again, here’s the Pirates vs. the rest of the league in an advanced statistic.

Biggest takeaway: For the third straight statistic… the Arizona Diamondbacks have made an appearance. Boy, if they could just get more consistent pitching…

But back to the Pittsburgh Pirates now. Ouch. Pittsburgh went from average last season to dead-last so far in 2017. Marte accounted for 43-percent of the Pirates stolen bases in 2016 and it shows how much they miss him in 2017.

In conclusion

The loss of Marte is obvious and abundant in the above stats, but even with him, the Pirates are average to below average on the base paths. It is not just in terms of stolen bases, but also in terms of on-base intelligence.

Here’s the most alarming takeaway from these statistical comparisons: Lineup regulars like Josh Harrison, Adam Frazier and Francisco Cervelli are worse on the basepaths this season so far.

Remember, these stats are not cumulative. They are affected by more games, but they are averages.

Who gets the blame for the drop-offs in 2017?

It has to go both ways. Certainly, Cora and Bartee have to be better at judging balls and their players. However, Cora and Bartee cannot literally make the Pirates better at base running. Pittsburgh’s coaches cannot run the base paths for the players. Additionally, the players have the decision to disobey stop signs by coaches or to hold up when the coach is waving them forward.
When Marte comes back, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offensive numbers will improve, but their baserunning statistics will also improve. That said, Marte alone will not change everything. He cannot buoy his teammate’s stats on the base paths.

Photo Credit: Daniel Decker Photography