FanGraphs recently released their Pittsburgh Pirates ZiPS projections for the 2017 season. There were a few intriguing items mixed in.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system has become one of the most widely accepted projection systems in baseball analytics. Yesterday, he released his 2017 Zips for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Here now are a few notable items from the exercise. You can see the full batch here.
Glasnow poised for breakout?
Tyler Glasnow is projected to be the Pittsburgh Pirates second best starting pitcher, with a zWAR of 2.1. He is second to only Gerrit Cole (3.5 zWAR).
This seems surprising as both Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova outperformed Glasnow in 2016 by a sizable margin. Glasnow is projected to strike out 146 batters in 122 innings, good for 10.74 K/9. That would be exceptional for the lanky 23 year-old. On the flip side, he is projected to walk 69 which would put him at 5.08 BB/9. With a ERA of 3.60, these projections would make for a nice season for Tyler Glasnow in 2017.
McCutchen bounce back
The ZiPS project Andrew McCutchen to slash .276/.370/.474, all higher marks than last season. They also project him to hit 24 home runs, 29 doubles, and swipe 11 bases. His -10 defensive runs saved would be worst on the team, but this assumes he plays center field. That may not be the case.
These projections look at McCutchen’s 2016 offensive output as fluke and not the norm. At the same time, these numbers are still quite off from his MVP caliber seasons. In his age 30 season, this is to be expected. McCutchen is still projected to lead the Pirates in zWAR at 4.1.
Corner Outfield regression
ZiPS has Starling Marte hitting .281/.336/.436, all lower totals from last season. His 38 projected steals are also lower from 2016. Although his 3.8 zWAR is second behind McCutchen, it would still be lower than his 4.0 fWAR from last year. That being said, Marte could be due for an uptick in power as the projection has him hitting 14 home runs, five more than last season. ZiPS does not love Gregory Polanco as he is projected to hit .259/.322/.420. They expect a drop in home runs from 22 to 16. A lot of people including myself expect Polanco to breakout in 2017. This may not be the case.
Gerrit Cole an ace?
After an injury riddled 2016, ZiPS projects a step in the right direction for Gerrit Cole in 2017. Over 159 innings, Cole projects 146 strikeouts and 41 walks. His 3.45 ERA would be lowest among starting pitchers. If healthy in 2017, these numbers would be good but not great. Many feel that for Cole to have a successful season, he must pitch closer to 200 innings rather than 150.
This season will be crucial for Cole, but it is entirely fair to wonder is his arm problems from last year carry over to this season.
Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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