Our player profiles for the 2018 season continue today with right fielder Gregory Polanco. After an injury plagued and overall disappointing 2017, can he bounce back and be the impact player the team believes that he can be?
After his 2016 season, Gregory Polanco had the Pittsburgh Pirates and their fans salivating at the idea that the then 24 year old outfielder was just entering his prime and could be an impact left handed bat in the lineup for years to come. The team, obviously excited by his level of production in 2015 and future potential, rewarded Polanco with a five year, $35 million contract in April 2016 with two additional team options that could keep him in Pittsburgh through the 2023 season. After posting a WAR of 2.1 in 2015 and 2.4 in 2016 (per Fangraphs), Polanco looked to be an absolute steal.
Sure, Polanco has his adventures in the outfield, but after slugging 22 home runs in 2016 after combining for a total of 16 in the two previous seasons, the team was able to overlook his defensive mishaps since he was able to make up for those mistakes with his bat. But unfortunately for Polanco and the Pitssburgh Pirates, injuries and and a huge drop off in production in 2017 resulted in him being just a 0.5 WAR player last season. That does not exactly inspire confidence for the team as they committed $35 million to the young outfielder at the beginning of 2016.
Polanco was limited to just 108 games in 2017 due to a recurring hamstring injury, but even before he was sidelined he was struggling. He slashed .247/.333/.338 in April and went deep just three times in the first two months of the season (May 11, 26, 28). He ended the season with 11 home runs and a slash line of just .251/.305/.391. Not only that, but he had a career low eight stolen bases last year, so that might be some evidence that the hamstring injury was a problem throughout the season.
A reason for suppression
A look at some of the advanced statistics from last year also show why some of Polanco’s numbers were suppressed last year, particularly his batted ball data. His ground ball percentage went from 38.8 in 2016 to 42.2 last year and while his flyball percentage jumped slightly (37.5, up from 37.1 in 2016), his home run to flyball ratio dropped significantly, from 14.4 to 9.2 last year. He posted a hard hit percentage of 25.9 last year, the second worst of his young career. Consequently, his soft hit percentage was 22.8, the highest of his career. All of these could have had an impact on his subpar 2017 season.
However, so far this spring Polanco looks like a top bounce back candidate and could be in line to have a strong 2018 season. While spring training statistics are just that, and should not be weighed too heavily, what Polanco has done in Florida so far is promising. Through 12 spring training games and 36 at-bats, Polanco is slashing .389/.421/.778 with three home runs. If he is able to carry that success over to when the team travels north, he could be one less question mark in the everyday lineup for the Pirates.
Now that Andrew McCutchen is no longer on the team, Polanco has an opportunity to be the most explosive member of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield in 2018. He has shown in recent years that he is capable of being a strong lefty in the lineup, and at the age of 26, he still has many productive years ahead of him. If Polanco stays healthy, and given his recent history, that is far from a certainty, he could finally become the player the team saw in him when they awarded him that multiyear contract a few years ago.
Image credit – Daniel Decker
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