Can Adam Frazier stick with the Pittsburgh Pirates?

On June 24, Adam Frazier got the call to join the Pittsburgh Pirates from the Indianapolis Indians and he was more than ready.

In his first seven games (June 24 through July 3), he provided a much-needed left-handed bat for the Pirates, getting seven hits in his first 14 major league at-bats.  During that timeframe, he contributed to the Pirate offense with a double, a triple, two RBIs, two runs scored and three stolen bases.  It was quite a statement and made the Pirates look good in calling him up from AAA.

An initial burst

Since that initial burst, he has cooled off at the plate.  In his next five games (July 4 through July 8), he saw limited action and went 0-for-5 with a walk and a run scored.  This is a very small sample size, but it is normal for a good AAA hitter to break into the major leagues and hit well, only to be followed up by a period of mediocrity.  This makes sense as opposing pitchers don’t really know anything about a new hitter when they first face them.

After a while, the hitter gets enough at-bats where the opposing teams can formulate an approach that is most likely to get them out.  For instance, when Gregory Polanco first joined the Pirates in June of 2014, he hit for a .378 average in his first 10 days of action, only to follow that up with a .219 in July and .225 in August.  Once pitchers change their approach, it is up to the hitter to make adjustments to keep on hitting.  This process is just beginning for Adam Frazier.

Patience at all levels

Frazier appears to be a mature hitter, showing a good eye at the plate and making contact more often than not.   He has been this way at all levels, from college through the minor leagues.  As a Mississippi State Bulldog, he had a two-year slash line of .361/.438/.455 with 75 walks and only 50 strikeouts.  In AAA earlier this year, he led the International League in batting average at .333 and had more walks (29) than strikeouts (27).  He sets up in a slightly closed batting stance, which feels like a throwback to the 80’s in today’s world of open-stance hitters.  However, he has a quick, compact swing and has no problem getting to inside pitches.  His stance makes it easier for him to hit any middle-to-outside pitch to the opposite field.  His 2016 MLB spray chart below illustrates this nicely.

Source: FanGraphs web site

He does not hit for power and has only three home runs in 4 years of minor league play, none of them at the AAA level.  Instead, he uses his ability to identify strikes to get good pitches to hit and put them in play – the prototypical contact hitter.  To further make that point, in his first two weeks at the major leagues, he has only one strikeout and one walk.
Since his debut, there are noticeable differences in how opposing teams are now pitching to Frazier.  This is likely contributing to his reduced performance at the plate in his most recent games.  Initially, pitchers threw a lot of inside fastballs to Frazier and he was able to get his hands through and hit a lot of them to center and left field.  Now they are throwing more outside pitches and Frazier is chopping them to the middle or right side of the infield or softly lifting them to left field.  Overall, he is getting much fewer pitches in the actual strike zone.

Adjustments needed

Frazier will need to make two adjustments.  The first is that he must be able to use his good batter’s eye to take more walks.  Pitchers will tease him on the outer edge of the plate and, just like a leadoff hitter, he must be able to waste borderline pitches and take pitches that are just off the plate.  Second, he must be able to hit pitches on the outside third of the plate to left field with some kind of authority.  He doesn’t have to hit home runs, but he needs to keep the left fielder from playing very shallow and taking away base hits as Matt Holliday did in the July 4^th game at St. Louis.

Frazier has shown he is a smart hitter and it is reasonable to assume he can make these adjustments and more.  He has always hit both RHP and LHP equally well at all levels.  His splits in 2016 across AAA and the majors show a .326/.406/.432 slash line against right handed pitching and a .356/.389/.433 against lefties.  Given this, he should get plenty of chances to pinch hit and spot start over the next few weeks.  If he can make adjustments and deliver results like he did in his first week in the big leagues, then he will find his way onto the Pittsburgh Pirates roster permanently.