The Pittsburgh Pirates should not entertain the thought of trading Andrew McCutchen when he can be utilized much more effectively batting in the fifth or sixth spot.
The issue with Andrew McCutchen is related to batting order, nothing else. Trading him now would be a mistake when he can deliver a lot of value batting farther down in the order.
McCucthen didn’t hit like a #3 hitter in 2016
Andrew McCutchen just wrapped up the worst season of his career and will likely be spending the offseason figuring out how to get back on track. Many fans have started asking if now is the time to trade McCutchen as another bad season would definitely reduce the center fielder’s trade value. I believe that trading Cutch would be a mistake, but keeping him, and continuing to bat him in the 2 or 3 spot, would be an even bigger gaffe.
This season, McCutchen’s performance was below his career average in every statistical category except home runs.
| Category | 2016 Results | Career Average |
| At Bats | 598 | 558 |
| Batting Average | .256 | .292 |
| On Base Percentage | .336 | .381 |
| Slugging Percentage | .430 | .487 |
| Home Runs | 24 | 22 |
| Strikeouts (162 game avg.) | 143 | 126 |
| Walk Percentage (162 game avg.) | 69 | 83 |
Although these are disappointing results for Andrew McCutchen, they were slightly better than the National League average of .255/.322/.417. In fact, McCutchen’s results are only disappointing if you consider them as a hitter who regularly bats in the #2 or #3 spot in the order. If you instead think of Cutch as a #5 or #6 hitter, his 24 home runs and .256 batting average don’t look so bad.
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]In fact, McCutchen’s results are only disappointing if you consider them as a hitter who regularly bats in the #2 or #3 spot in the order.[/perfectpullquote]Batting 5th or 6th makes sense
By taking a closer look at the top teams in the National League – in this case the five teams that made the post season (Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, Giant and Mets) – one can develop a feel for good performance as a 4, 5 or 6 hitter. Below are the aggregated stats for the #4, #5 and #6 hitters on those five clubs.
| 2016 Results | Batting Average | On Base Percentage | Slugging Percentage | Home Runs |
| #4 Hitters | .270 | .350 | .459 | 24 |
| #5 Hitters | .259 | .330 | .440 | 25 |
| #6 HItters | .267 | .335 | .435 | 20 |
| Andrew McCutchen | .255 | .322 | .417 | 24 |
2016 statistics for top 5 teams in the National League
This comparison shows that even with his 2016 production, Andrew McCutchen slots in nicely as a #5 or #6 hitter. Therefore, the question the Pirates should be asking themselves isn’t whether or not they should trade Andrew McCutchen, it’s who should bat in the three hole after they move Cutch to 5th or 6th in the batting order.
Different option for the third spot in the order
Fortunately, the Pirates have an excellent option for the #3 hitter – Starling Marte. Marte had a 2016 slash line of .311/.362/.456 to go along with 48 extra base hits. True, his 9 home runs are light for a three hole hitter, but he made up for it by stealing 47 bases. The Pirates regular batting order would then run as follows: Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Jung Ho Kang, David Freese (or Josh Bell), Andrew McCutchen, Fransisco Cervelli and Jordy Mercer.
[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Therefore, the question the Pirates should be asking themselves isn’t whether or not they should trade Andrew McCutchen, it’s who should bat in the three hole after they move Cutch to 5th or 6th in the batting order.[/perfectpullquote]Once McCutchen starts hitting in the 5th or 6th spot, it makes sense to consider if his $14M salary makes sense for the Pittsburgh Pirates. This amount is going to be high compared to many of the players who regularly bat in the 5th or 6th position, but it is not outlandish. Ben Zobrist of the Chicago Cubs hit in both these positions for a good portion of the year and he is paid $14M per year. Jayson Werth of the Washington Nationals spent a lot of the season hitting in those slots and he makes $21M per year. So this approach is not unprecedented among successful teams.
Upside potential
The other benefit of this approach is in the case that McCutchen returns to his pre-2016 form, he can be moved back to the #2 or #3 spot. Making a trade that moves McCutchen away from Pittsburgh takes away the opportunity for this upside. And McCutchen’s $14M salary isn’t so high that the Pirates can’t afford to have him bat lower in the order.
In summary, the problem with McCutchen isn’t his trade value or trade timing, it’s the spot he occupies in the batting order. If the Pirates have other options for the #3 spot, such as Starling Marte, then they can afford to make this change and see if Cutch can regain his MVP form.
[irp posts=”10242″ name=”Shopping Andrew McCutchen – Good or Bad Idea?”]Featured Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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