The Pittsburgh Pirates have now declared an open competition between three pitchers for the last two spots in their starting rotation. What direction will the team take?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are two weeks away from Opening Day against the St. Louis Cardinals and currently the most intriguing story of spring training is the emergence of Juan Nicasio as a starting pitching option.
Nicasio has been dynamic so far this spring, throwing 15 innings, allowing no runs on ten hits and striking out 24.
Pirates Breakdown recently debated whether Nicasio has earned a spot in the rotation and today, general manager Neal Huntington laid bare how the team feels about Nicasio’s progress.
Final two rotation spots are between Jeff Locke, Ryan Vogelsong and Juan Nicasio, per Neal Huntington. Niese will open in rotation
— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) March 21, 2016
The other two options for the backend of the rotation are, of course, Ryan Vogelsong and Jeff Locke.
As it stands now, based purely on spring training performance, Nicasio and Vogelsong probably have the advantage over Jeff Locke, but come Opening Day will Locke be out of the rotation in favor of Nicasio? Or will Locke once again be penciled in as the club’s fifth starter? We still have two weeks of exhibition games to sort everything out, but lets take a look at how each of these pitchers stack up against each other.
Going purely on one spring training can be very risky for a ball club. Just because a player has looked dominant in spring, doesn’t mean that will necessarily translate to success in the regular season.
Based on each of their numbers the past three seasons, Vogelsong has been substantially the weakest of the three candidates. He has a FIP of 4.43 and an xFIP of 4.33 to match his ERA of 4.80. He also is the oldest of the pitchers and you are always afraid of age catching up with any starting pitcher. It isn’t fair to purely judge a pitcher by his age, but it is something to take into consideration.
Vogelsong is an interesting pitcher in this competition as most people think of it as Locke vs. Nicasio, but he has pitched out of the bullpen as recently as last season for the San Francisco Giants. Vogelsong has been fairly solid this spring so far. He had a pretty bad first outing, but has settled down to pitch to a cumulative 4.00 ERA in nine innings of work.
Vogelsong has had an up and down career, especially the past three seasons. He was bad in 2013, serviceable in 2014 and poor again in 2015. Based on unsustainable patterns, he should be serviceable in 2016, but every other year magic isn’t real…unless you’re the San Francisco Giants, which as you know is Vogelsong’s former team. Will Vogelsong be able to hold that pattern now that he is back in a Pirates’ uniform?
Juan Nicasio has the second highest ERA the past three seasons, but he spend two of them pitching for the Rockies, where he had a Coors Field ERA of 5.79. His FIP of 4.17 and xFIP of 4.12 show that he was massively the victim of bad luck. Going from Colorado to Los Angeles did wonders for Nicasio as he pitched to a 3.86 ERA, a 2.86 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP. He was simply put worlds better away from the pitching hell that is Colorado.
Nicasio has had easily the best spring of the bunch as stated above, but there is no way he would be able to sustain that domination over a full season. He is not the pitcher that put up a 5.79 ERA in Coors Field, nor is he the pitcher currently putting up a 0.00 ERA in 10 spring training innings. The real Nicasio is likely somewhere in between, and while his track record isn’t incredible, we know that Ray Searage and the Pirates have excelled at reclamation projects. Could Nicasio be the latest example in 2016?
You will not find a more polarizing player for the Pirates (now that Pedro Alvarez is gone) than Jeff Locke. Some think he’s the worst pitcher in the history of organized baseball, others think he’s a perfectly adequate fifth starter.
Judging by his numbers the past three seasons, Locke has been the best of the back-end rotation candidates. He has the lowest ERA at 3.97, lowest FIP at 4.11, and lowest xFIP at 4.01. So why the hate? The issue with Locke has always been his inability to put it all together for a full season. Each of the past three seasons he’s had strong first halves, followed by terrible second halves. Locke has shown the ability to get outs at the big league level, but has greatly struggled to do it consistently.
Despite the best ERA, FIP, and xFIP of the bunch, Locke has seen his ERA go up each of the past three seasons, but his FIP and xFIP have been mostly constant. The most interesting pattern about Locke is that each season’s FIP has fairly closely predicted next season’s ERA. In 2013, he had a FIP of 4.03, and in 2014 he had a 3.91 ERA. In 2014 he had a FIP of 4.37, and in 2015 he had an ERA of 4.49. His FIP in 2015 was 3.95. Will this pattern hold true for Locke and his ERA in 2016?
Who will be the Pittsburgh Pirates’ fifth starter come Opening Day? It’s hard to say because each candidate has their positives and negatives. In a best case scenario for each pitcher, they could all be more than serviceable back-end starters, however, each pitchers’ worst case scenario could be costly for the Pirates.
I am thankful I don’t have to make the decision, because I don’t think any decision will please everyone. I am not going to make any prediction because a lot can change between now and the end of spring training. The result will sort itself out because that’s how baseball works. Whatever decision Clint Hurdle eventually makes, you can best believe Pirates Breakdown will be there to give you our perspective on it.
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