How the Pittsburgh Pirates Can Beat Jake Arrieta

No single pitcher personifies the Pittsburgh Pirates’ post-season struggles more than Jake Arrieta. Are there areas the club can exploit to beat him?

Jake Arrieta has been masterful against the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 4-1 record against them since the start of the 2015 season. This includes the devastating 4-0 drubbing in last year’s Wild Card game where he was borderline untouchable. This begs the question: how can the Pirates beat Jake Arrieta? The Pirates shouldn’t be reduced to hoping Jake has a bad day or makes a few mistakes. The focus should be on things the Pirates can control. Luckily, analysis shows there are a couple of chinks in Arrieta’s armor that can be exploited.

Interestingly enough, Arrieta has a track record of pitching worse in the half inning immediately after he has personally struck out. In the 2016 season (all numbers in this article are from games played through June 5th), he has pitched 80 innings. In the “other half” of 11 of those innings, he was struck out by the opposing pitcher. What’s fascinating is his ERA in the innings immediately after he was struck out is much higher than his overall ERA. In those innings, his ERA is 5.40 as compared to his overall ERA of 1.80. Statistically, teams score three times as many runs on Arrieta if they can strike him out. His WHIP shows a similar trend, although less extreme. In innings after he has struck out, he has a 1.50 WHIP as opposed to his overall WHIP of 0.96.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Arrieta has a track record of pitching worse in the half inning immediately after he has personally struck out. [/perfectpullquote]

Last season, Arrieta was a weak hitter, even for a pitcher. He had 79 at-bats and struck out 45 times, posting a .152 batting average. In the 2015 post-season, he struck out five of the six times he was up to bat. This season he is doing much better, batting .231 with only 11 Ks in 26 at-bats. One can speculate that he was not very happy with his performance at the plate and worked hard in the off-season to improve his hitting. Arrieta is a fierce competitor and it is possible that when he fails at the plate, it carries over into his pitching the next inning. The very competitiveness that makes him a great pitcher could be working against him.

You might be wondering if all pitchers suffer from this phenomenon to some extent. If so, it should be more evident in great pitchers that also hit relatively well. Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw definitely fit this description. Through games played June 5th, Bumgarner has 13 strikeouts in 32 at-bats. He has an overall ERA of 1.91 and an ERA of 1.38 in innings after he has struck out. Over the same time frame, Kershaw has an overall 1.46 ERA and a 1.13 ERA in innings after he has struck out. Based on the analysis, both Bumgarner and Kershaw don’t appear to have any issues pitching after a personal strikeout. So, of the three, only Arrieta seems to be susceptible in this scenario.

[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Arrieta also pitched worse, statistically, in innings where the other team gets at least one runner on base and that runner successfully steals a base. [/perfectpullquote]

Arrieta also pitched worse, statistically, in innings where the other team gets at least one runner on base and that runner successfully steals a base. This particular weakness of Arrieta’s is not new news, as his motion to the plate is more slow and deliberate. It hasn’t been a big issue for him this season because so few teams have put runners on base against him. Applying a similar analysis, we find that Arrieta’s ERA in innings where a stolen base occurs increases to 3.60 from his overall ERA of 1.80. This is naturally going to be skewed a bit because, by definition, a runner will at least reach second base in these innings. His WHIP goes up from 0.90 overall to 1.40 in these “steal” innings, showing that he often compounds the problem by putting more runners on base. It is also interesting to note that Arrieta settles down in the inning after a steal occurs, with an ERA of only 1.00. This causes us to theorize that any impact from base stealing only has an effect in the inning in which it occurs. Getting on base is no easy trick so it may be worth repeatedly bunting for a base hit or taking borderline pitches to try and get a walk. Once aboard, there should be a green light to steal.

In summary, there are at least two statistical anomalies in Jake Arrieta’s otherwise stellar record. First, he gives up three times as many earned runs in innings after he has personally struck out. Second, he gives up twice as many earned runs in innings where a base is successfully stolen. What does that mean for teams that hope to beat him? Opposing pitchers should treat Arrieta as a must-strike out batter, giving him their best stuff instead of taking the usual mental break when the pitcher is up to bat. Then, teams must take advantage at the plate in the next half inning. In addition to working hard to get on base against him, teams should look to steal aggressively as this also has an adverse effect on his ERA. Perhaps these two areas can make a small difference against one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

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