Pittsburgh Pirates could see better results from bottom of order

As the Pittsburgh Pirates lurch forward towards Opening Day, the debate over the everyday batting order continues.

With John Jaso now seemingly entrenched at the top of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ lineup, coupled with Andrew McCutchen pointed towards remaining in the number two slot, many observers now wonder what the rest of the batting order may look like against the Cardinals on April 3rd.

Despite the focus on the top of the order, it may be the bottom of the order that can take a step forward for the club.

In 2015, the seventh and eighth hitters for the Pirates performed reasonably well.

There a couple of interesting notes to unpack from this data.

First, the 114 rating for wRC+ (weighted runs created +) led the NL from the seventh spot (100 is considered an “average” score). This will likely continue for 2016, as we will see shortly.

From the eighth spot, the wRC+ rating of 93 might seem underwhelming, yet only two teams in the NL had a rating of 100 or more. The St. Louis Cardinals were far and away the most productive in this regard, with a 110 rating.

2016 will likely be another story completely, as the changes at the top have ramifications that will be felt all the way through the order. While Pedro Alvarez‘s free swinging ways often led to his insertion in the lower third, his departure and a re-focusing on quality at bats results in a case of addition by subtraction.

If spring batting orders over the past week are any indication, Jordy Mercer, Gregory Polanco or Josh Harrison could be reliable bats at the 7th spot.

Here we see how Pirates batters with at least 50 PAs fared at the number 7 position in 2015.

Although Francisco Cervelli led the team in appearances as a number seven hitter, that will likely not be the case this season. With accomplished and speedy hitters presumably batting in front of him, Cervelli and his 82.1 percent contact rate will likely be counted on to hit directly behind, to capitalize on hit-and-run and other small ball opportunities.

For 2016, the club can approach the seventh spot in a variety of ways. They can place a contact hitter there such as Harrison, who puts the ball in play far and away more than he strikes out. They can put Polanco at the spot to provide a bit of lineup balance with a left-handed bat farther down in the order. With the third-year player also serving as a chief base stealing threat, he could have more free reign to take an extra base from the seventh slot, maximizing the effectiveness of the team’s number eight batters.

Speaking of that position, here is a snapshot look at how the team fared from a traditionally light-hitting position.

Mercer was far and away the go-to hitter for the 8th spot, at least on days when Chris Stewart is not catching. In the case of Mercer, it’s business as usual as he has 733 plate appearances there for his career. Mercer is a capable hitter at number eight, and although he has been moonlighting at the top of the order against left-handed hitters, Mercer’s shortcomings as a hitter can be better masked at a lower position.

Those shortcomings are not very pronounced at that. Mercer’s OBP over 2015 can be a bit underwhelming, but he carried a very good 16.5 percent strikeout rate in 2015. Rather, the shortstop’s most pronounced weakness as a hitter last year was his inability to square the bat on the ball. His 25.3 percent hard-hit rate was the lowest among any Pittsburgh Pirates regular with at least 250 PAs. He will simply have to do a better job of making quality contact for the club to find more value from the bottom of the order.

Other than Mercer, Stewart is as close to being written in at the number eight spot in ink as any other Pirates hitter. This is the right spot for him, and if the rest of the lineup follows the stated approach to resemble more of a “chain of hitters,” Stewart may get more RBI opportunities.

The exciting thing for the Pittsburgh Pirates is this: they have the personnel from top to bottom in their everyday batting order to ensure that their new approach is a success. The onus now rests on Clint Hurdle to find the right combination of hitters in the right spots to maximize the new philosophy.