As the Gerrit Cole trade saga carries on, the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching staff remains up in the air. Even if the Pirates’ ace is heading out of town, the team’s best minor league lefty may not get a chance to start.
Steven Brault’s 2017 AAA stats scream that he is ready to be a major league pitcher. Last year he posted a 1.94 ERA, 8.15 K/9 and a 52.5% ground ball clip in 21 outings at Indianapolis. He even had a relatively good showing with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the later months. Unfortunately for him, there is a logjam of starters that are preventing him from taking the next step.
Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova are locks for a rotation spot next year, and Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams certainly showed enough last year to justify starting again in 2018. GM Neal Huntington knows this too and is looking for ways to get all his young arms innings.
Huntington on Tyler Glasnow: "I don't want to single him out, but we are more open to one, maybe two young starters being in the bullpen to start the season, with the idea in the long term we believe they're starting pitchers."
— Bill Brink (@Bill_Brink2) December 12, 2017
You don’t have to do a lot of reading between the lines to pick out whom Huntington was referring to. Sure, Clay Holmes is an intriguing ground ball specialist and Nick Kingham could eat innings, but Huntington probably meant Tyler Glasnow and Brault. Converting Glasnow to a reliever has been a popular fan theory this past year, but it might be necessary for Brault.
If there isn’t a spot in the rotation, would Brault be a good fit for the bullpen?
Lefties on the 40 man
The Pittsburgh Pirates currently only have four lefties on the 40 man roster: Brault, Felipe Rivero, Jack Leathersich and Nik Turley. With Rivero closing, they are going to need at least one more lefty to help bridge the gap to him. Don’t count on a big name coming in to stabilize the bullpen, either. If the Pirates add another southpaw, it would likely be via a waiver claim or a minor league contract.
Jarrod Prugar and I talked to Jack Leathersich earlier this offseason, so you can read more about him here. In short, Leathersich has always posted fantastic strikeout numbers at every stop in the minors despite not being the hardest thrower. The trade off is he walks a lot of batters. Regardless, the 27 year old’s strong September will help his case for breaking camp with the big club, but he still has an option year remaining. The Pirates could try to polish him up in Indy before making him a full-timer.
Turley had a terrific season in AAA last year, striking out 10 and a half batters per nine innings and recording a 2.66 ERA. He finally made his MLB debut in June and made 10 appearances with the Twins, but was demoted after three disastrous starts. Minnesota used him as a mop up man in August and September and decided they saw enough of the now 28 year old to let him go. The Pirates used a 40-man roster spot to claim him in November, but one would have to imagine he is near the chopping block if the club needs to make room for a more appealing player. He is out of minor league options, so his stint in the organization might be a short one.
Lefty comparisons
Brault may have learned last year that his changeup is a key for getting major league batters out, but if he is going to succeed in the Pirates’ bullpen, he’s going to need to rely on his fastball. No staff threw fastballs as often as Pittsburgh in 2017 (62.8%), with the bullpen offering heat 59% of the time. If Brault is going to stick, he’s going to have to throw heat.
Using Statcast, we can compare Brault’s major league fastball to the league average left-handed reliever. In some regards, he looks like a good candidate.
[table id=257 /]The wOBA can probably be discredited due to Brault’s small sample size. His velocity should go up a tick because he will only have to throw 15-20 pitches an outing rather than 90-100, and his effective velocity is already above average. While he may not have the fastest heater in the league, velocity should not hold him back.
What is concerning is his spin rate. Going based off Jeff Zimmerman’s research, even if Brault consistently sits in the 93-94 MPH range, he is only going to get a swing and a miss somewhere between 5-7% of the time with his current spin rate. (This is 2016 data, but the same theories apply. A high spin rate is just as good as high velocity for getting whiffs.) Relief pitchers got a whiff on 11.6% of their pitches in 2017, according to Fangraphs. Even if the fastball isn’t necessarily a whiff pitch, Brault stands to get fewer than most.
Real cool from @jeffwzimmerman: SwStr% on FB, spin v velo. For Ks, high everything is good. https://t.co/AgRrLLl66W pic.twitter.com/crmT4Ajump
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) September 12, 2016
Unless he gets some extra spin or does a great job sequencing, Brault’s strikeout rates will probably be below average. That’s not necessarily a death knell since plenty of relievers have pitched to contact, but it is a red flag.
Is he willing?
So he is a bit of a mixed bag as bullpen candidates go. Would he be willing to make the leap?
Brault was asked during that during media portion of this year’s PiratesFest on Dec. 9. He gave a vintage Nuke Laloosh answer: “I want to do whatever is going to help our team win.” To help them win “muhco ballgames,” to be precise.
“If they need me in the bullpen, I’ll be happy to do that,” Brault said. “I would prefer to be in the big leagues.”
Looking past the cliche, Brault offered another reason why he might be in favor of the move. He said that he could still learn more if he starts in AAA, but a jump to the majors would make him learn faster.
“There [are] some things you have to learn in the big leagues,” Brault said. “Facing big league hitters, you have to learn in the big leagues. You can’t learn that in AAA. So I just think that the next major step in my development would be in the big leagues. If I do go back to AAA, I will be able to get better. It just, I think, will be a bit of a slower process.”
It didn’t come up during the Dec. 9 interview, but Brault may also take solace in knowing that going to the bullpen might not be permanent. After all, the same thing happened last year to Williams.
Exactly what happened to Trevor?
Last spring, the Pittsburgh Pirates had four starters vying for one starting job. Brault had the results to justify winning, but the club gave Tyler Glasnow the nod instead because of his perceived higher ceiling. Williams also had a dominant spring, so they decided to put him in the bullpen instead of optioning him. Williams didn’t do so great out of the bullpen, but when Jameson Taillon hit the disabled list, the team turned to him to take his place rather than a minor leaguer. He needed a few starts to be stretched out, but he ended 2017 as arguably the team’s most reliable starter.
The Pirates could do something similar with Brault. If the next step of his development does have to come in the majors, this is the safest bet to getting him to the show. He can fill in if a starter hits the disabled list for an extended time. If the transition goes well and they don’t want to jeopardize his development for a start or two, they could call on a Nick Kingham or Clay Homes.
So is Brault a great candidate to go into the bullpen? Maybe not. Could it help his development? Possibly. Would converting him be permanent? Absolutely not.
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