Josh Harrison will be the primary leadoff hitter for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018. He is familiar with this role, compiling 1006 career plate appearances in that spot. He is a career .301 hitter in that spot. To most, he is the obvious choice as the guy who will set the table this season.
Not so fast, Pittsburgh Pirates. Harrison has a career walk rate of 3.9 percent. When batting first, that rate only increases to 4.7 percent. He isn’t exactly a burner on the base paths. His career high in stolen bases is just 19. He does not fit the mold of a leadoff hitter.
In a perfect world, Adam Frazier would lead off everyday. Unfortunately, he will be coming off the bench. Frazier will bat first every time he starts a game. But that won’t be every day. Starling Marte could be an option. He certainly has the speed of your prototypical leadoff hitter, but like Harrison, doesn’t get on base enough.
To me, there is one obvious answer.
Vita Bella
Francisco Cervelli has a career on base percentage of .358, more than 15 points higher than the next Pirates’ regular. His career walk rate is 9.9 percent. What is the main objective of a leadoff hitter? Get on base. That is simply what Cervelli does consistently and has done over the course of his career.
In 41 spring plate appearances, Cervelli has six walks. He has seen the ball extremely well hitting .400/.488/.829. Obviously those numbers mean nothing. But they are great numbers nonetheless.
Cervelli has never led off in his major league career. That doesn’t worry me. He is a natural spark plug. He is exudes energy. Leading off would have zero impact on his patient approach at the plate.
At 3.98 pitches seen per plate appearance in 2017, Cervelli trailed only Josh Bell (4.11) in that category among regulars. Harrison saw 3.74 pitches per plate appearance in 2017, also respectable.
Lengthen the lineup
Right now, Cervelli will likely slot seventh in the batting order with Jordy Mercer and the pitcher hitting behind him. Cervelli will draw his walks and then what? Mercer is a below average hitter. His career wRC+ is 88.
Cervelli has a slightly higher career wRC+ than Harrison, 103 to 101. The difference is slight. Cervelli gets on base more than Harrison but Harrison slugs at a higher clip than Cervelli. Harrison has slugged .414 over his career, Cervelli .373. If he bats first, Cervelli will have more chances to get on base and score. Harrison will have more opportunities to drive in runs lower in the order.
To me, this is the optimum batting order in 2018 for the Pirates:
C Cervelli
LF Dickerson
CF Marte
1B Bell
RF Polanco
2B Harrison
3B Moran
SS Mercer
Pitcher
This lineup effectively breaks up righties and lefties. It is a deep lineup. Both power and speed is scattered throughout. Cervelli can be the 2018 version of Jason Kendall. Ironically, they have fairly similar career slash lines. Kendall hit .288/.366/.378 (95 OPS+) in 15 seasons. Cervelli has hit .275/.358/.373 (99 OPS+) in 10.
Do I expect Cervelli to ever hit first in a game? No. Do I think the idea should at least be explored? Absolutely.
Featured photo credit – Daniel Decker
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