Pirates would do well to wait and see on Francisco Cervelli

The Pittsburgh Pirates will eventually have to make a decision on Francisco Cervelli’s potential future with the club. That time is not now.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Chris Stewart to an extension, many wondered what it might mean for fan favorite Francisco Cervelli‘s future with the team.

Yesterday, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported that Cervelli would be open to an extension with the club, but at a decent price tag.

What might get a Cervelli contract extension done? 3y, $39 million, per source

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) January 27, 2016

It’s widely regarded that should Cervelli replicate his 2015 numbers, or perhaps even come close, he would find himself in the upper echelon of free agent catchers available after the 2016 season concludes, possibly second only to Baltimore’s Matt Wieters.

The catcher position for the Pirates is one of depth in the minors, with Reese McGuire and Elias Diaz both finding themselves in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 Catcher Prospects list. The team has reportedly been hesitant to include Diaz in trades, however, and as such, the planets seem to be aligning for Cervelli to make his departure after the 2016 campaign.

As it stands now, Cervelli is the 17th-highest paid starting catcher, according to Sportrac. Should Cervelli land his rumored desire of a $13 million per year contract, that would vault him to into the top seven, with names such as Buster Posey, Russell Martin, and Yadier Molina as company.

With Cervelli’s track record of injury (2015 was his first season in which he appeared in at least 100 games), it may take another season of good health before he could theoretically come close to matching such a salary. While Cervelli’s offensive numbers do not sniff Posey’s, or even Brian McCann‘s, his value should get a spike from his pitch framing, which ranked as the best in baseball for 2015 in runs saved above average (RAA) with 26.7 runs saved.

The offensive numbers may not show well in counting stats, but in rate stats Cervelli does compare favorably. If we compare his wRC+ and OPS+ to Martin, Cervelli stands on his own.

Cervelli posted a 114 OPS+ and a 119 wRC+ batting mainly out of the bottom half to bottom third of the Pirates batting order. Martin, playing in a high-octane Blue Jays offense, put up a 115 and 114, respectively.

With minor league depth and a jury that is still out on Cervelli’s ability to remain healthy, the Pittsburgh Pirates will do well to take a wait-and-see approach with the backstop before even broaching any possible extension talks.

Should he prove he can stay healthy and post similar numbers in 2016 to his 2015 breakout year, it may give the team serious pause in its plans for the position moving forward.

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