With never really knowing what to expect from the Pittsburgh Pirates on any given day, one of the more curious cases of inconsistency has been starting pitcher Chad Kuhl.
There are times when Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Kuhl toes the rubber and looks like a young hurler with solid upside.
Then there are times when Kuhl simply looks terrible on the mound, leaving you scratching your head on whether he will turn into a solid MLB start or the second coming of John Van Benschoten.
What’s the reason for the inconsistencies?
The easiest answer is that Kuhl is a young pitcher who has just 19 MLB starts under his belt. Inconsistent outings are going to happen.
But let’s dive a little deeper and see what Kuhl’s issues have been.
The Good
When Kuhl is on, he shows signs of being a decent back of the rotation arm. He had solid starts against the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals followed up by miserable outings against the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins. Entering Sunday’s contest in Miami, Kuhl had posted a 3.01 ERA against any team in baseball not named the Cubs, so that shows he has been pretty good at times.
A positive sign is that Kuhl has been learning to put batters away at the MLB level, posting a 7.4 K/9 this season. That’s a career high for a guy who wasn’t really know for striking batters out in the minor leagues. There’s also the fact that Kuhl isn’t out there getting hammered by the home run ball. He’s allowed just one homer this season, which is another positive sign. Despite his 6.26 ERA, Kuhl has posted a solid 3.74 FIP, which is well below the league average of 4.06.
Finally, things could turn around for Kuhl, based on a couple factors. His ground ball rate is at 40 percent and his fly ball rate is at 43.8 percent. These are balls that aren’t being hit hard right now and should be outs on most nights. The fly ball rate is high, especially for a Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher, but Kuhl has done a very good job keeping the ball in the park so it has been working for him.
The Bad
There is plenty I could discuss here, but let’s keep it simple and start with the walks.
Kuhl is a pitcher who got to this point based on pinpoint control. We haven’t seen that at the MLB level from him.
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]His highest BB/9 in the minors was 2.47. Kuhl is getting killed by the walks now, posting a 4.7 BB/9 this season.[/perfectpullquote]He doesn’t have the light’s out stuff to get himself out of self-created jams, so the walks have to stop and soon. He’s also just not making pitches when he has to. The league is hitting .298 off Kuhl, which is over 50 points above the MLB average.
Then there is the fact that once Kuhl gets guys on base, he’s having trouble getting out of jams. Kuhl’s LOB% is only at 59.1 percent, which is far below the 73 percent MLB average. If he doesn’t stop walking batters, things are going to get worse for him..
In his three not-so-good starts, he has walked 11 batters in 10.2 innings pitched. In his two good starts, he had issued just one free pass in 12.1 innings pitched.
With Kuhl, success all comes down to the walk.
The Ugly
The Chicago Cubs have been Kuhl’s kryptonite, posting a 15.75 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs. He’s allowed 21 earned runs in 12 innings pitched against Chicago in four career starts.
But the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t done the right-hander any favors either, committing five errors in his five starts this season. Kuhl’s FIP tells you he isn’t out there getting hammered, but the defense behind him isn’t making the plays they need to make.
Speaking of that FIP, Kuhl also has an ugly 5.79 xFIP, which could signal that things are about to get worse. While a regression is likely possible, you can look at the .365 BABIP Kuhl has allowed in one of two ways.
The first is that he just isn’t fooling anyone. The second is that Kuhl has been victimized by bad luck so far this season. That’s where I stand with Kuhl right now. He’s a young pitcher who is going to have his ups and downs, but he has shown the ability to be pretty effective at this level.
He just has to stop putting himself in positions to fail.
If he does, there should be more positives to write about Kuhl in the upcoming months than negatives.
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