Pittsburgh Pirates Deep Dive: Andrew McCutchen

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen has worked his way to becoming a perennial MVP candidate. Our deep dive series shows you how he can get even better.

Welcome to Pittsburgh Pirates Deep Dive, a weekly in-depth analysis piece here at Pirates Breakdown.

Here you will find a detailed look at many different aspects of your Pittsburgh Pirates. This could take the form of a particular aspect of the team’s play, situational histories, split statistics or a strong overall study of a player.

We kick off this regular feature by looking at none other than 2013 National League MVP Andrew McCutchen. Who better than the team’s on-field leader to start us off? His storied history is already well-known, as he has posted a cumulative 40.7 WAR (wins above replacement) in his first seven years in the league.

I come to you today not to tell you how great Andrew McCutchen is. Although a small yet vocal contingent of baseball observers express apathy toward’s his accomplishments, the vast majority can agree that McCutchen is now a yearly candidate for post-season hardware.

I am here today to tell you how he can be even better in 2016 and beyond. Let’s get right to it.

McCutchen carried a 19.4 percent strikeout rate in 2015, a number right in line with his 20.2 percent career figure, yet lower than his 2013 rate of 22.3 percent. The leader in this area among qualified batters was New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy, who boasts a 7.1 percent metric.

With the highest strikeout rate among qualified batters being Chris Davis with 31.4 percent, I became intrigued. Why is McCutchen, who excels at many different levels at the plate, decidedly average in this one particular area? After all, he did rank eighth in all of baseball with a 14.3 percent walk rate while enjoying a fourth consecutive season with an OBP of over .400 (.401 in 2015).

The answer may shock you: McCutchen would do well to be more selective.

Ok, let’s try that once again and drop the sarcasm. McCutchen would do well to be more selective at pitches that he normally has success with.

I headed over to look at the treasure trove that is Brooks Baseball to see if I could discern any trends with the offerings that McCutchen sees. I thought this a good place to start, as only 50.4 percent of pitches offered to him are in the strike zone. While pitchers being careful with a dangerous hitter is nothing new, it’s surprising to see McCutchen’s swings per pitch outside of the zone, as you’ll see below:

Percentage swings/pitches

As we can see in the graphic, McCutchen enjoys offering at the pitches that are not in the zone but are in and tight. With his tremendous bat speed, it’s easier for McCutchen to get around on these pitches than it would be for other hitters. When he does connect on these, the line drives per balls in play percentages are just as good as when he makes contact in the zone:

Line drives per balls in play

Surely those line drive numbers are remarkable, and again a testament to his bat speed. When we add two strikes to the count, McCtuchen’s approach stays the same:

Percentage swings/pitches – 2 strike counts

It’s noteworthy to understand that the veteran stays with his approach even on two-strike counts. To be completely accurate, his offerings actually increase on pitches in and tight while outside of the zone.

Although his approach works for him overall, it might benefit McCutchen to lay off of pitches that he would normally offer at when on two-strike counts. It’s hard to think that, as his contact.

Andrew McCutchen is deadly effective when he offers at hittable pitches, and is better than most when offering at pitches some would deem as “unhittable.”

Scaling back his offerings at these identified pitches could result in a better contact rate – 75.9 percent in 2014 (115th in baseball) – and could push pitchers back towards the strike zone proper.

And in his seven all-star level years in baseball, we’ve already seen what happens when that occurs.

Thank you for checking out Pirates Breakdown!  Please follow us on twitter and jump into the hot stove conversation with us!