Pittsburgh Pirates Deep Dive: Jon Niese

We’ve shown you the good. Now we’ll show you the bad, which also doubles for the ugly.

Niese’s worst start of the year came on May 19 against the Cardinals. Lasting just five innings, Niese gave up 11 hits en route to eight earned runs. With just one strikeout against one walk, Niese did not have great stuff. He actually made more swinging strikes – six – than his season average of 4.9, but also only had seven looking strikes. Not only was he unable to get batters to chase, he did not fool them either.

The game score for this outing was an abysmal 13. How did that low number come about? Let’s look at the pitch study:

A huge jump in slider usage was seen at 16.87 percent. Niese’s slider will never be confused with Francisco Liriano‘s, but on this day it could not induce a ground-ball. This start also saw an increased reliance on the curve ball while the sinking and cut fastballs were relegated in favor of the four-seamer.

Now would be a good time to mention Niese’s perplexing curve-ball. Of all the pitches in his arsenal, the curve saw the best whiff percentage at 11.39 percent for 2015. It also saw the highest slugging percentage against of any of his pitches, with a very crooked .543 figure. It is truly an all or nothing pitch.

The southpaw’s second-worst start came on July 24th against the Dodgers. This doubled as Niese’s shortest start of the year at just three innings. He posted a game score of 19, and it is easy to see why. 3IP/8H/6ER/1BB/1H/2HR is an undesirable line by any means. Did Niese simply not “have it” that day, or can we see a trend between this and his other “worst” start?

Here now is the pitch study for that game:

The four-seam fastball again saw heavy usage. The slider returned to its normal frequency, and the cut fastball had a usage similar to his season rate overall. There’s not much to correlate between this start and his worst, but one thing that jumps out is the utter lack of whiffs. Niese had but four swinging strikes on this day, and a look at his zone contact percentage from FanGraphs shows that Dodger hitters made contact at an incredible 95.5 percent rate on this day. As suspected when looking at a pitching line as bad as this one, Niese simply did not have it in this start.

Conclusions

Niese is in Bradenton today for the Pittsburgh Pirates mini-camp. It will be Ray Searage’s first chance to identify any needed changes in Niese’s delivery or pitch usage. As seen last year with J.A. Happ, Searage does an excellent job in identifying what does not work for pitchers. I would fully expect Searage to limit Jon Niese’s slider and change-up, if not remove them entirely. I would also expect to see the curve-ball be fine-tuned if it is to remain an effective pitch, as even a small improvement for the knee-bender could result in a pitch that’s harder for hitters to drive.

In Niese’s best starts, his cut-fastball and sinker take the center stage. It’s no coincidence that these two pitches have a ground-ball rate of above 60 percent each for the entirety of 2015. These pitches will be the foundation of Niese’s time with the Pirates, as they fit into the team’s overall defensive approach. Niese will not strike anyone out at a clip similar to Gerrit Cole, Liriano, or even Jeff Locke. The excellent pitch-framing across the Pirates organization should be a big help to Niese, who does not get many swings-and-misses.

Searage and company may have a considerable amount of work to do with Jon Niese. The ground ball rate and years of control  caught the team’s eye, but don’t be surprised if he looks like a very different pitcher in 2016.

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