Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central Division Race – Possible Outcomes to the Second Half of the Season

Given the current standings and remaining schedule, is it possible for the Pittsburgh Pirates to beat the Cubs for the NL Central Division crown?

With the season more than half over, the Pirates are 46-43, sitting 7.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs, who are 53-35. Also lurking are the always-dangerous St. Louis Cardinals at 46-42, half a game above the Pirates in the competitive NL Central standings. Many Pirates fans are wondering if it is possible to catch the Cubs in the second half. Certainly if the Pirates sweep the remaining six games against the Cubs that will go a long way, but that scenario seems improbable. Hoping for a sweep against the teams ahead of you in the standings isn’t a very logical expectation. Instead, one can apply several analytical methods to this question and determine the probable answer.

Setting the Stage:

The Pirates have 73 games remaining (the Cubs and Cardinals each have 74) and there are significant differences in their remaining schedules. So how will each team perform against their remaining opponents? This question will be analyzed from four different angles.

First, we assume that teams will play commensurate with their overall winning percentages. Second, we assume the teams continue to play head-to-head like they did in the first half.  Third, we assume an “inter-league factor” that could rise up and bite the Cubs. And lastly, we assume certain teams play poorly against all opponents for the rest of the season.

Scenario 1: Good Teams stay Good, Bad Teams stay Bad

The first approach assumes that the remaining teams on the schedule will perform according to their overall winning percentage.  For instance, the Pirates have 16 games remaining against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers are 38-49 for a 43.7% winning percentage.  This winning percentage applied against the Pirates games would equal a Pirates record of 9-7 in the remaining 16 games.  That approach can be put to use for all the remaining games for each of the three Central Division contenders for the following results:

This analysis debunks the notion that the Pirates have an easier second half schedule than the Cubs. It is true that the Cubs have already played a lot more games against the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds than the Pirates or Cardinals have.

However, the overall winning percentage difference between the remaining teams on all three club’s schedules is not enough to swing the numbers dramatically. This approach predicts that the division will finish pretty much where it is now with both the Pirates and Cardinals seven games back of the Cubs.

Scenario 2: Head-to-Head Winning Percentage

The second approach assumes the Pirates, Cardinals, and Cubs take their winning percentage against each team and continue to win at that clip for the second half against that team. For instance, The Pirates are 3-9 against the Cubs so far this season for a 25% winning percentage.

They have seven games remaining against them so this approach predicts they will go roughly 2-5 in those games. If there have been no head-to-head games against a team, then that team’s overall winning percentage was used instead of the head-to-head winning percentage. Applying this approach to the Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals remaining schedules, the following results are found:

In this scenario, the Pirates would play the rest of the season pretty much like the first half of the season. The Cubs face tougher opponents in the second half so their second half record is worse relative to their first half. The opposite is true for the Cardinals as their second half record would be much better than their first half record. This analysis is favorable for the Cardinals and shows them finishing only two games back of the Cubs, while the Pirates mostly tread water at eight games back.

Scenario 3: The Inter-league Factor

When the schedules of all three teams are compared, it becomes clear that both the Pirates and Cardinals have already played 15 of their 20 inter-league games, whereas the Cubs have only played two games against the American League. This “inter-league factor” will likely have a big impact on who ends up winning the NL Central.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-8 against the American League, the Cardinals are 5-10 and the Cubs are 2-0. Now, extrapolating the Cubs to go undefeated in 20 games against the American League is not realistic, so a different means of analysis is in order. If all three clubs end up .500 against the American league, it means in the second half of the season the Pirates will go 3-2, the Cardinals 5-0 and the Cubs 8-10 versus American League teams.  Assuming the rest of the games are similar to the above two scenarios, the clubs will end up with the following records:

This analysis is a best-case scenario for the Cardinals as it shows the Cardinals and the Cubs finishing with identical records while the Pirates are still seven games back.  This is mainly due to the Cardinals having an unnaturally low winning percentage against American League teams so far this season. In this case, they would go 5-0 in their remaining five games in order to finish .500 in inter-league play. These five games make a big difference in the standings as the Cubs would go 8-10 in their remaining inter-league games.

Scenario 4: Certain Teams Play Poorly Against All Opponents:

Although based on solid math, the previous approaches don’t give much hope to Pirates fans yearning for their first division title in 24 years. Fortunately, there is at least one scenario which favors the Pirates. Obviously, if the Pirates beat the Cardinals and Cubs for the rest of the season, it has a huge effect – but that is unlikely. Instead, it is more plausible to look at teams that the Pirates play more often in the second half. If these teams play unnaturally poorly against all opponents, then this could swing the pendulum towards the Bucs.

The three teams that could impact the NL Central Division race most positively for the Pirates are the Philadelphia Phillies, the Cincinnati Reds, and the Washington Nationals. The Pirates play these three teams 24 times and the Cardinals play them 16 times but the Cubs play only six more games against them. If we assume these three teams have only a 20% winning percentage against NL Central Division opponents, then the math starts to favor the Pirates.

This approach shows the Pirates and Cubs finishing in a tie for the division lead.  That would make for an exciting one-game playoff to determine the division winner.

Home Stretch

In summary, the more traditional approaches show the Cubs winning the NL Central, with an interesting “inter-league factor” that may tilt the odds in favor of the Cardinals. Pirates fans should hope for a fourth option – a collapse in Washington, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati as the Bucs play these three teams 24 times and the Cubs only see them six times. If these teams start losing a lot of games, it will heavily favor the Pirates. Philadephia and Cincinatti will be sellers at the trade deadline so there is a good chance they could get worse.

Washington is a very good team and a favorite to win their division, so expecting the Pirates to win five of their remaining six games against them seems far-fetched. They face each other right after the All-Star break and that series should be an early indicator of the Pirate’s chances to win the NL Central division title.

Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography

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