The Pittsburgh Pirates Dodged A Bullet

The Pittsburgh Pirates dodged a bullet by not trading Andrew McCutchen this past summer.

By now you may or may not have heard (but if you are a die hard Pirates Breakdown reader, you probably did!) Ken Rosenthal’s report. This summer there were talks between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals to send Andrew McCutchen to the nation’s capital. While the Pirates did eventually ship Mark Melancon to Washington in exchange for Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn, the deal involving McCutchen fell apart fairly early on. Rosenthal reports that in addition to wanting to receive Victor Robles, Washington’s top outfield prospect, the Pirates wanted multiple players to come back to Pittsburgh.

So what does this news tell us? A few things for sure, but I’m going to tell you why it’s a good thing that this deal fell through.

It Would Have Sent the Wrong Message

For starters, the Pirates were under the gun to move Melancon for a number of reasons. His contract was up at the end of the year, and knowing that the value of a qualifying offer was more than they would be comfortable paying a reliever, even a top shelf closer such as Melancon, it made sense to move him and get some pieces in return. Rivero showed that he can be a power lefty out of the bullpen, while Hearn went 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA after joining the West Virginia affiliate of the Pirates.

So comparing Melancon and McCutchen is not apples to apples. One had a contract expiring that made sense to flip and get something in return, while the other is under contract for 2017 with a team option for 2018. At the time, the Pirates were in a position where they did not need to move their star centerfielder.

This year at July 31st trade deadline, the Pirates had a record of 52-51, far from what was expected when the team left Bradenton at the conclusion of spring training. But even with that record, the Pirates were very much still in the Wild Card conversation. A few weeks of good baseball and the Pirates could have easily vaulted over some of their opponents (sadly, we know that wasn’t the case). Had management decided to move McCutchen at the deadline, that would have sent a very clear message to the fans. The message being that 2016 is lost and that the focus will be on the future. Most fans can understand the reasoning behind moving Melancon, but trading a star player who just three years ago was the league’s MVP and still is still under contract for at least a year would be a much tougher pill to swallow.

It Would Not Have Been The Right Time. Period.

We do not need to rehash the fact that McCutchen had a down year in 2016, it’s been written everywhere. But because McCutchen was performing well below what was expected, the trade package the team would have received in return for him would have probably reflected that. This is evident since Washington balked at Pittsburgh’s asking price of Robles plus other pieces. Sure, Neal Huntington could have made the argument that McCutchen would bounce back in 2017 and be a top player once again. But many if not all General Managers are going to be weary of a centerfielder trending downward during his age 30 season.

If fans take anything away from what Rosenthal reported, it’s that they should begin to prepare themselves for the team to trade McCutchen. This is hard evidence that the team knows that they will need to move on from him and that he will most likely not be in Pittsburgh after 2018. With the Winter Meetings coming up next month, there will be even more rumors and speculation flying around. And now that the league knows the Pirates are willing to listen on him, don’t be surprised if a move is made.

But the good thing here is that the Pirates do not have any urgency to trade him. Even considering that 2016 was below expectations, he is still a very affordable player in 2017 and in 2018 if the option is exercised given his track record. The Pirates have always been a conservative team when it comes to promoting their prospects, so while Austin Meadows is the heir apparent to take over for McCutchen, it certainly won’t hurt if he spends the first half or so of next year with Indianapolis. If the stars align and McCutchen bounces back and Meadows is ready before the team projected he would be, then the Pirates have a great problem on their hands.

If I had to venture a guess, I would say that McCutchen will not be moved this winter and will spend all of 2017 with the Pirates. They do not have a proper replacement at the moment but should by the middle of the summer at the latest. While it will be tough to see the team move on from the player probably most synonymous with the turnaround of Pittsburgh baseball, at the end of the day baseball is a business. Huntington cannot worry about alienating fans when he eventually parts ways with the current face of the franchise. Fans can only hope that McCutchen gets to experience a long playoff push before his career as a Pirate ends, because he certainly deserves it.