Pittsburgh Pirates Can Help Edinson Volquez Rediscover Strike One

The Pittsburgh Pirates are rumored to be checking in on old friend Edinson Volquez. A reunion could be profitable, if the team helps him rediscover Strike One.

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to search for starting pitching, and some recent scuttlebutt has pegged the club as having interest in bringing back former starter Edinson Volquez.

As many will remember, Volquez famously rebuilt his value in 2014 with the Pirates, before signing a three-year, $27 million dollar deal with the Kansas City Royals. That third year was a $10 million option year with a $3 million buyout, and the Royals saw that to be a fair price to get out from under Volquez’s contract.

Here now is what Volquez’s two years in Kansas City looked like, next to his time in Pittsburgh:

On first glance, Volquez appears to be on a downward trend. The numbers do indicate that, but a deeper look reveals that these trends may, in fact, be reversible.

First, a look at just how different the 2016 Volquez was versus the 2014 version.

Not The Same

The First Cut Is Supposed to Be The Deepest

The first thing that jumped out to me when looking over Volquez’s 2016 was the change in first strike percentage.

A four percent decrease in getting to 0-1 may not seem like much on the surface, but its effects on the plate appearance as a whole are hard to quantify. Still, we can safely assume that getting to strike one is paramount for any pitcher. The Pittsburgh Pirates in particular are known to preach the importance of strike one.

Getting ahead early allows a pitcher to pitch what he wants in any given situation. Being forced to go back to a pitch you may not want to throw is never a good thing.

The simple truth is that some pitchers need 0-1 more than others. Volquez is clearly now one of those pitchers. Take a look at how he fared after 1-0 counts in 2014 versus 2016:

The reasons for this could be myriad, and we will float some theories below. But it is worth noting that Volquez saw 48 more plate appearances with the batter ahead (296) than he did in 2014. He managed this increase despite pitching just 3.1 innings more than he did in 2014.

No Trouble With the Curve

The infographic above only tells have the tale in regards to Volquez’s seemingly now-ineffective curveball.

In 2014 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Volquez went to the nasty stuff 25.87 percent of the time. Hitters hit .184 against it and slugged just .281. Simply, it was a very effective pitch.

In 2016, Volquez’s curve was tagged in the 24.01 percent of the time that it was used. Hitters hit .265 on the pitch and slugged .388, a 107 point increase.

His curve was dropping less in 2016, making it a very identifiable pitch. Perhaps most telling about this pitch is the change in line drive rates. In 2014, the curve was driven hard at a 15.57 clip. In 2016, that figure jumped to 24.34 percent.

Despite this, Volquez was still trying to use it as an out pitch on two-strike counts. yet it resulted in four percent less strikes in that scenario.

Easy Fixes?

So with the Pittsburgh Pirates rumored to be interested in a Volquez reunion, can these issues be fixed? I believe that they can, but not how you might expect.

Should he return, I would expect Ray Searage to have a leg up on tinkering with Volquez due to their familiarity with each other. As we’ve often seen when the Pirates obtain a new pitcher, Searage is hands-off at first before making any serious change. The previous relationship shared in 2014 may ease this ‘breaking in’ period and help Volquez get right back to good habits, mainly getting to Strike One.

Should he be able to do that, I would then expect Searage to identify which of his secondary pitches should take precedent, whether that be the curveball, his sinking fastball or his changeup. Volquez is just 32 years old, and figures to have some of his prime left in the tank, perhaps more than enough to give the Pittsburgh Pirates a solid middle of the rotation arm.