There are many who are writing off the 2016 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
There are many Pittsburgh Pirates fans calling for the club to prioritize building a great team for 2017 over making a run at 2016. However, In my opinion, there are many reasons to be excited about the revamped starting pitching, bullpen and offense.
Finally on to Something
If you see the glass as half-empty, then the best the Pirates can hope for is yet another one-game wild card adventure, where their results the last two years have been the epitome of frustration. Those in this camp are calling for an investment in younger players this year, giving them important seasoning so they can contribute to a serious playoff run next year.
I think the glass is half-full and this pessimism is misguided. There are plenty of reasons to be hopeful about the current incarnation of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, I am not saying that the Pirates have a chance to catch the Cubs for the Division title. G.K. Chesterton defines hope as “the power of being cheerful in circumstances you know to be desperate”. I am not talking about this kind of misplaced hope. I am talking about hope that is based on historical performance, numbers and on squeaking into the playoffs. If the Pirates stick with their current lineup, and they can execute well in the final third of the season, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances to play in the NL wild card game.
[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]If the Pirates stick with their current lineup, and they can execute well in the final third of the season, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances to play in the NL wild card game.[/perfectpullquote]First, let’s define 2016 success as making the wild card game (hosting or travelling) and not sacrificing any future prospects to do so. This means no more trades where players like Reese McGuire are moved to other teams in exchange for a player than can help them win this season. They have to win with what they’ve got in the dugout right now. Given the teams in contention, it will probably take a record of 89-73 to earn a post season berth. This means they have to win 32 out of the next 50 games – basically two out of every three games. Why is this a possibility? Because the Pirates accomplished this feat in 2015, going 31-18 over the final 49 games. And I will argue that they finally look like last year’s team from starting pitching to the bullpen to the current lineup.
Starting Pitching Revamp
Beginning with starting pitching – last season the Pirates made their sprint to the finish line on the backs of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ and Jeff Locke. Given that only Cole and Locke remain on the team from this group, and Locke seems destined for the bullpen, it seems counter-intuitive that the starting pitching would be anything like last year. Well, let’s go through each of the starters and see for ourselves. I’ll argue that Cole ’16 is Cole ’15 – as long as he’s not pitching against the Reds he will give the team a solid chance at a win every time he pitches. Liriano is gone and Jameson Tallion is now filling his spot as the #2 starter. Taillon is better than Liriano in several important ways in his small body of work so far. Last season, Liriano racked up a 3.38 ERA supported by 9.88 Ks/9 and 1.21 WHIP. This season Taillon has posted a 2.85 ERA and 7.05 Ks/9 and 1.08 WHIP, better in every stat except strikeouts.
Instead of A.J. Burnett, we have Ivan Nova. This is where you have to have some faith in the Pirates to get more out of Nova than the Yankees did. The biggest issue Nova had with the Yankees was giving up the long ball (21 home runs allowed so far in 2016), which has adversely affected his ERA. If Ray Searage can help Nova get his HR/9 rate down to a more respectable level, then he can contribute at the level A.J. Burnett did last season. Chad Kuhl is the current fourth starter, and it is hard to argue that he is as good at J.A. Happ was in the second half of last season. Kuhl’s 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP do not stand up to Happ’s 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP from his stint with the Pirates in 2015. However Kuhl seems to have the X-factor in that the Pirates have done nothing but win when he pitches – just like Happ. There are certain pitchers who, although they don’t have dominant stuff, always seem to do enough to give their team a chance to win. So far, Kuhl has been this kind of pitcher. That leaves the last starter, Ryan Vogelsong, who is going to give the Pirates more consistent starts than Jeff Locke. Even if his best games won’t be as good as Locke’s, his worst games will not be nearly as bad. In games where he starts, he has yet to give up more than 1 ER and this is a major upgrade for the 5th starter position from last season’s run to the playoffs. In summary, I think these five starters can give the Pirates a similar starting pitching performance as the closing month-and-a-half of 2015.
Bullpen Back in Shape
The Pirates bullpen has rounded into form nicely after a tough start to the season. In the 2nd half of the season, the bullpen has an ERA of 3.12 versus 3.70 for the first half. Even though the Pirates are without the services of Mark Melancon, the combination of Neftali Feliz, Juan Nicaso, Philip Rivero, Antonio Bastardo and Tony Watson will allow them to close out games in which they are leading after 5 or 6 innings. We’ve seen Locke pitch very effectively out of the bullpen. Much like Nicasio, if he only faces the opposing batting order once, he can hold his own. And once AJ Schugel finds his way back up from AAA, possibly replacing Jared Hughes, the bullpen will be one of the best in the National League, with the second half numbers to back it up. The only missing bullpen pieces from last year’s team are Joakim Soria and Arquimedes Caminero. Both were excellent at the end of 2015 and the rest of the bullpen will need to pick up the slack.
Offense Keyed by a Proven Lineup
This brings us to the offense, which has been inconsistent to say the least. I will argue that the current batting order with Josh Harrison at the top, followed by Startling Marte and Andrew McCutchen is basically the exact same lineup that got the Pirates into the post season the last two years.
A comparison of the most used batting order from the end of the 2015 season (after Kang was injured) compared to the current 2016 batting order is shown below:
| Order | End of 2015 Season | Current 2016 Season |
| 1 | Polanco / Harrison | Harrison |
| 2 | Marte | Marte |
| 3 | McCutchen | McCutchen |
| 4 | Ramirez | Polanco |
| 5 | Walker | Freese |
| 6 | Alvarez | Jaso / Kang |
| 7 | Cervelli | Cervelli |
| 8 | Mercer | Mercer |
In 2015, Polanco led off quite a bit, especially when Harrison was injured, but near the end of the season Harrison was batting leadoff more times than not. Many will argue that Harrison is not a typical leadoff hitter, with only 13 walks and a low 3.54 pitches per at-bat in 2016. But his batting average since 2014 as a leadoff hitter is .311 and his OBP in the same role back in 2014 was .359, when he was Clint Hurdle’s go to guy for that spot. Harrison has shown he can get on base and advance once he is there.
Some claim Marte can’t bat second because he is not a good situational hitter. This is simply not true. Last season, he hit for a .289 average in that spot and this season, he is showcasing his natural ability to hit for average and to all parts of the field. His 2016 spray chart shows an even distribution of line drives and fly balls across the diamond.
McCutchen is having a dismal season, but since being benched for three games, he has 6 walks against only 4 strikeouts. McCutchen may have come to the realization that he needs to walk his way out of his slump before he can hit his way out of it. This can help him get his eye back, and combined with a commitment to hit to the opposite field, could help him regain his form over the closing days of the 2016 season.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]Let’s define 2016 success as making the wild card game (hosting or travelling) and not sacrificing any future prospects to do so. [/perfectpullquote]The other two consistent lineup pieces from last season are at the bottom of the order. Jordy Mercer is hitting better than he did last year and is contributing to the offense with 40 RBIs, already more than his injury-shortened season in 2015. Francisco Cervelli has shown that he can still hit when healthy as he has a .290 average since coming off the DL on July 19th. A healthy Cervelli will add a lot to the offense. If he stays injured, Eric Fryer and Elias Diaz will have to fill in, and if Cervelli’s last DL stint is any indication, he will be sorely missed in the lineup.
There ends the similarities between the end of last season and the current lineup. Probably the biggest change we see now is Polanco in the clean-up spot as compared to Aramis Ramirez last year. One only has to look at their slash lines to realize the 2016 team is much better off. Polanco is hitting .279/.351/.493 so far in 2016 whereas Ramirez hit .245/.281/.362 on a very successful 2nd half Pirates team last year. This is a definite upgrade.
The 5 and 6 spots in the batting order are totally different from last season. Instead of Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, The Bucs have a combination of Sean Rodriguez, Jung Ho Kang, David Freese and John Jaso. Both Kang and Jaso started strong, but have tailed off dramatically over the last two months. But remember, the Pirates did not have either of these players for the final third of the season last year and still won an NL-best number of games. So it probably comes down to Rodriguez and Freese replacing the performance of Walker and Alvarez. That initially sounds improbable, but let’s take a closer look at the actual numbers from mid-August through the end of the season.
| Player | AVG/OBP/SLG
Last 1/3rd of 2015 Season (August 14th-Sept 30th) |
AVG/OBP/SLG
First 2/3rds of 2016 Season (through August 15th) |
AVG/OBP/SLG
Last 1/3rd of 2016 Season |
| Neil Walker | .268/.341/.428 | ||
| Pedro Alvarez | .238/.378/.522 | ||
| David Freese | .283/.363/.450 | ? | |
| Sean Rodriguez | .247/.335/.495 | ? |
You can see that if David Freese and Sean Rodriguez simply continue on their current slash lines for the rest of the season, they will contribute at the combined level of Walker and Alvarez from last year. And this does not even include Matt Joyce, who at .271/.404/.548 will only add to the current team’s offensive performance up when he is in the lineup. Unfortunately, Jaso and Kang’s roles may have to be minimized based on their numbers so far this season.
Optimistic Outlook
In summary, there are plenty of reasons for optimism around the current version of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their revamped starting pitching, solid bullpen and proven lineup will help them perform like the 2015 team over the final third of the season. If they can match the 2015 team’s finish, they will end the season 89-73 and likely claim the final wild card in the National League. This would set a franchise record of four straight seasons with a playoff appearance and make 2016 a highly successful season.
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