The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 27 home runs at the first base position. Do they need a power-threat at first?
Nearly four weeks later, many are still questioning the Pittsburgh Pirates for their decision to release first baseman Pedro Alvarez.
While most accept that the move was necessary given Alvarez’s inability to grasp the position defensively, some still look at the team’s recent moves to back-fill as ignoring the need for a power-hitting first baseman.
Indeed, the team’s reliance on some combination of Michael Morse, Jason Rogers, and the newest acquisition John Jaso would suggest that the Pirates do not value a traditional home-run threat of Alvarez’s ilk at the position.
Are they right to do so?
The debate that swirls around the first base position in recent years is very intriguing. The first base position is traditionally the most forgiving in athletic ability. Hulking sluggers such as Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, and others helped prove it to be no coincidence, as those with the most raw power have historically gravitated towards first base.
However, many point to the dropping home run totals in recent years as proof that a consistent 30+ home run threat is not necessary at any position in the lineup, much less at first base.
Today, I will put that theory to the test.
To start, I gathered the top five home run totals from first baseman over the past 20 years. This data ranges from 1996 through 2015. Then I took the averages of the top five home run totals for four different sets of five years. This provides us with an average look at what the home run leaderboards may look like for any given five-year timeframe.
Here now are those results:
[table id=9 /]A word on this data: I chose this data to help illustrate the Pittsburgh Pirates’ approach to the first base position relative to the importance of having a home-run threat that can find himself among league leaders at the first base position. I trimmed this data to the National League only, and set a threshold of 400 plate appearances.
The drop in average home run totals from the league leaders seen in 2011-2015 suggests that rather than having gaudy home run totals at the top of the leader board, the pack has gotten tighter. The data is not pictured here, but consider that the biggest difference between first and fifth place in home runs was 11 as recently as 2010 (First place Albert Pujols hit 42 home runs, while fifth place finisher Adrian Gonzalez slugged 31), as opposed to only a six-home run difference just this past year, with Paul Goldschmidt besting Alvarez by six home runs, with 33 to Alvarez’s 27. Over the past decade, the second smallest difference was nine. All other differences were 10 or more.
This data, while relevant, does not paint the full picture. To do so, I considered the WAR (Wins above Replacement) and wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created plus) of each of the top five leaders. I brought these to the party to better gauge the true value of a “home run threat.”
In previous years the phrase “chicks dig the long ball” gained popularity.
The new phrase may just be “front offices dig wRC+.”
While it may not seem to be as good of a turn of phrase, the Pirates would do well to live by this mantra.
Head to the next page link below to read how:
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