When we begin to consider the WAR and wRC+ values of the top home-run hitting National League first basemen, we see several trends start to develop.
First, the home run leader at the position also often doubles as the highest WAR at the position as well. This is not groundbreaking news. Over the past 10 years, we see that five of the top home run hitting first basemen also led their position in WAR. Notable exceptions include Albert Pujols in 2008 and Joey Votto in 2010. Both ranked third in home runs for those respective years but took home the WAR crown.
Votto also gets special recognition for 2011, when he ranked first in WAR with a 6.4 value despite ranking “only” fifth in home run totals with 29.
Other than this obvious trend, the WAR values for these leaders can jump all over the place. More often than not, these may be the result of a deficiency somewhere else in the player’s game. Ryan Howard led the league in home runs with 48 in 2008 despite posting just a 2.9 WAR, good for sixth in the 15-team National League. The same strikeout tendencies that plagued Howard saw Adam Dunn rank fifth in 2009 with 38 round-trippers despite a 1.1 WAR. Howard pops up again, ranking fifth in 2014 in home runs despite posting a -0.4 WAR.
In 2015, Alvarez ranked fifth at the position in home runs but only posted a 0.2 WAR, good for 13th among 15 NL first baseman with 400+ plate appearances.
See the pic below for a full look at the last 10 years in home run leaders with WAR values attached
All of this data is presented to show that while the top sluggers at the first base position may or may not provide good value relative to their particular contracts or ability level, there can still be value in a lesser home run total.
When wRC+ is brought into the equation, things begin to look up for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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