Below is information from FanGraphs on how Weighted Runs Created + (wRC+) is calculated:
This statistic may be a true indicator of how productive a first baseman in today’s National League may truly be.
It’s important to note that this is a rate statistic, not a cumulative one such as WAR. This fact provides a good comparison between lighter-hitting players such as John Jaso and power-hitting first basemen.
A quick look at data over just the past five years sees a path similar to WAR. The top home run hitters are more often than not leaders at their position in wRC+ as well. Notable exceptions would include just this past year, when Votto was responsible for eight more runs (172 to 164) than Goldschmidt despite hitting four less home runs. The most glaring example of wRC+ not matching up with home run leaders came in 2014, when Howard rode the fifth-most home runs (23) at the position but was below average in weighted runs created with 93.
The data is better correlated when looking at average wRC+ among the 14 NL first basemen who had 400+ plate appearances in 2015:
[table id=14 /]While the top five averaged a healthy 150.8 wRC+ in 2015, the middle tier had good production at 126.2.
It is here that the Pittsburgh Pirates may find value.
Jaso had 136 wRC+ in only 216 plate appearances last year, compared to Alvarez’s 114 rating. While Jaso’s home run rate will likely never approach the 16.67 AB/HR that Alvarez posted (Jaso hit a home run every 50.18 at-bats in 2015), Jaso far outpaces Alvarez in runs created. If we accept the standard FanGraphs formula that states that 10 runs = one win, Jaso is good for two more wins by this metric alone.
In the end, isn’t that all that matters?
None of this is presented to suggest that the Pirates may not benefit from a consistent power stroke. In fact, an increase in home run rate from Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, and Jung Ho Kang may be enough to make up for the home runs lost by the departure of Alvarez and push the Pirates’ offense to another level.
This data may also suggest why the team is not too concerned with Josh Bell‘s relative lack of power at the Triple-A level.
In aligning themselves with this recent trend in power at the first base position, the team can avoid having to chase big-name sluggers with hefty price tags while still finding good value elsewhere.
In not chasing power, the Pittsburgh Pirates may be focused on something that is far more valuable: consistent run creation.
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