He is a fan favorite and brings an almost unparalleled energy to the Pittsburgh Pirates, but after another season bereft of injuries, is there concern that Francisco Cervelli cannot stay healthy given the amount of money he is owed?
Since joining the Pittsburgh Pirates for the 2015 season, catcher Francisco Cervelli has endeared himself to the Pittsburgh fanbase.
Whether it is getting animated when he perceives a call went against his pitcher or against him when he is in the batter’s box, Cervelli is without a doubt one of the most exciting players on the team.
But given that his 2017 season has been plagued with injuries and he is set to see significant increases in his salary during the final two years of his contract, there has to be some concern that he is unable to maintain a normal starting catcher’s workload given his salary. The wrist injury that has kept him out of action recently and currently has landed him on the disabled list is just the latest injury that has sidelined the backstop this season. He missed time in early June because of a concussion and also dealt with a foot injury while the team was in Bradenton for spring training in February.
A certain benchmark
If Cervelli is able to stay relatively healthy during the last six weeks of the season, he’ll have a chance to play in 100 games, a feat that he has only accomplished twice so far in his career, both times as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. His career high is 130 games, a mark that is routinely passed by the more durable catchers across the league. With salaries of $10.5 million next season and $11.5 million in 2019, Cervelli is going to need to stay healthy and play in the neighborhood of 135 games to have a chance of accumulating enough value given that he will command one of the more expensive contracts in the last two seasons of his contract.
When Cervelli’s numbers are investigated, it is clear that health is the biggest obstacle for him, as he has been putting up good numbers since joining the Pirates. Fangraphs has him with a 3.8 WAR in 2015 and 1.7 last season, while he is at 0.9 so far this year. His WAR in 2015 was aided by the seven home runs he hit, while the one he hit in 2016 was quite a significant drop in production. He may still be able to surpass his career high of seven, but the wrist injury has no doubt affected his swing and could even continue to bother him once he returns to the lineup. Three of his home runs were hit in the first six weeks of the season, with the other two coming on July 9th and 18th.
What about WAR?
Let’s use WAR here to try and figure out what Cervelli needs to do and how it is related to playing time. Let’s also assume that the cost of a win at the MLB level is around $7 million. As mentioned above, Cervelli produced his two highest WAR seasons in 2015 and 2016, which also happen to be the only two seasons that he played in over 100 games. In 2015 his salary was $1 million, so the Pittsburgh Pirates received a tremendous return that season in terms of dollars spent. The following year he earned $3.5 million, once again giving the Pirates fantastic production given what it cost them.
This year Cervelli has been a 0.9 WAR player for the Pirates and he has a salary of $9 million. So if he progresses and can return right when his disabled list stint ends, he has a chance to get his season WAR somewhere between 1-1.5. The real issue will start next year when his salary goes up again. After being banged up again this season, Cervelli’s ability to stay on the field certainly should be a concern. That’s why at least using WAR, it might be hard for him to be around a 2 WAR player and miss his usual string of games here and there throughout the season.
There are some other areas where Cervelli is trending in the wrong direction this year. His walk percentage is down from last year (14.2 to 10.2) and his strikeout percentage is up (18.3 to 21.5). Since 2013 Cervelli has finished every season with an on-base percentage of at least .370 and it appears that for 2017 he will fall well short of that mark. He also currently has a wRC+ of 93, which puts him at below the league average of 100 in that metric for the second straight season.
Now for something positive again! Cervelli’s ISO is at .121, which would be the best he has done since coming to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Some of this is due to the fact that he was on pace for career highs in home runs and doubles. While he may be able to best what he has done in the past, a lot of that will depend on if he can stay healthy for the remainder of the season. After posting a slugging percentage of .322 last year, he is at .370 this year, which is just shy of his career average of .373.
So when Cervelli is able to stay healthy and stay on the field he can be a very valuable player, the numbers show it. He might not be the most powerful hitter in the lineup, but he gets on base and also does a great job handling the pitching staff, something that is not yet quantifiable. But there has to be definite concern that because of his consistent pattern of getting hurt throughout the season paired with his increasing salary over the next two years, the Pirates might not see the level of production they would like given his contract.
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