After a very solid 2015 campaign, all signs pointed to Pittsburgh Pirates ace Gerrit Cole taking the next step in 2016 in becoming one of the top handful of pitchers in all of Major League Baseball.
Gerrit Cole may very well be the most scrutinized pitcher of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Clint Hurdle era.
Cole has pitched well at times. He has also pitched equally as poorly – notable during his last two starts. The past two times Cole has toed the rubber, he has lost both decisions and has compiled a horrendous 7.20 ERA in those contests.
Against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, Cole allowed the most earned runs (five) and most hits he (12) he has allowed all season.
Currently sitting with a 7-8 mark and a 3.25 ERA, Cole certainly has to be better down the stretch for the Pirates the rest of the way. It also begs the question of has he really taken a huge step back this season or is the slight bump in the road really not much to worry about at all?
Here’s a look at some reasons why Pirates fans should the concerned about Cole and why that his 2016 season shouldn’t be concerning at all.
A Tale Of Two Seasons
Before we get into the nuts and bolts of what is ailing Cole, this graphic shows us just how much the young hurler has fallen off from his 2015 numbers.
Now that we’ve set the table, let’s delve into what’s ailing the Pittsburgh Pirates’ star pitcher.
The Negatives
Not Missing Bats
When you have a power arm such as Cole who isn’t performing up to expectations, one of the first areas to look at is what has changed. One of the biggest changes this season compared to last for Cole is the fact that he isn’t getting the strike outs.
Cole has fanned only 86 batters in 102.1 innings pitched this season, which isn’t very Cole-like. He has missed some time due to injuries, but even if healthy all season long would be well off the pace of the 202 punch outs from a season ago.
His strike out percentage is at 19.6, which is well down from the 24.3 percent mark from a season ago. In addition Cole fanned 8.7 batters per nine innings a season ago. This season he is down to 7.6, which is actually below the MLB average of 8.0 strike outs per nine innings.
His walks are up slightly, from 1.9 BB/9 last year to 2.5 BB/9 this season. That’s not too dramatic, but it’s still an increase that is worth keeping an eye on. Add all of that up and it is enough to be a little concerned about the direction Cole is heading.
Getting hit a lot
Since Cole isn’t missing a ton of bats right now, it gives opposing hitters more opportunities to make contact and they are. The league hit only .235 off of Cole last season. This year they are raking at a .270 clip. That is also above the MLB average of .252.
Cole’s BABIP is also up from .304 last season to .332 this season. Here’s an area though, while it is a negative, Cole has always been a bit above the MLB average. However this year he is well above the average MLB mark of .297. He’s left more pitches over the middle of the plate than we are used to seeing and those mistakes are hurting him.
Giving up the amount of hits he has allowed this season- 108 in 102.1 innings- has led Cole to regress in some other areas as well.
Getting Outs when he needs to
The great ones can give up hits, but they normally get outs when they have to. That really hasn’t been the case for Cole this season. His LOB% is down to 71 percent. That mark was at 75 percent last season. Once again this is an area where Cole is below the MLB average of 73 percent.
That is simply a case of Cole not making quality pitches with runners on base. In addition, his WAR is down from 5.8 last season to 2.8 this year. His xFIP also sticks out as very high, falling from 3.16 in 2015 to 3.92 this season.
However, while there has been a lot not to like about Cole’s season to date, there also have been some positive signs as well.
The Positives
Keeping Ball in the Park
Yes, Cole hasn’t been the typical bulldog you like to see at the top of the rotation, but it isn’t like he is out there getting hammered all over the yard. A very encouraging sign is the fact that Cole has allowed just three home runs all season long. He’s keeping the ball in the ballpark and that is a good sign that many of the negatives will once again turn into positives.
Has he really been that bad? While there have been some outliers that would suggest Cole has regressed in a big way this season, has he really? He is keeping the ball on the ground at a similar rate to last season and his overall numbers aren’t terrible.
That especially rings true when you look at his FIP. Throughout the struggles this season, it sits at 2.84, which is only slightly up from the 2.66 mark last season. This is an indicator that things could turn around for Cole as he is well below the MLB average of 4.18.
When you factor everything together, maybe the final result is that Cole hasn’t really been that bad after all, which leads me to my final point.
Bad Luck
Sometimes a pitcher just suffers from a serious case of bad luck. That very well could be the case for Cole. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and not getting hit hard.
In reality, he is inducing more soft contact (22.9 percent this season to 20 percent in 2015) than a year ago. His hard contact rate is also down from 29.5 percent last year to 28.8 percent this season.
So no, Cole is not getting hammered like some of his indicators would lead you to believe.
Plus, to be blunt, the defense behind him has been flat out terrible at times. All of that should correct itself, which should give Pirates fans hope that Cole will turn things around soon.
Verdict
Yes, this season is not nearly as good for Cole as last season.
However, if I am a Pirates fan I am not going to get too stressed out over it. If the 2017 season is more like this season then maybe it is time to panic. To this point, Cole just has not gotten in a rhythm this season.
He was set back by injury during spring training and also had a DL stint of a month in the middle of the season. Would it be nice to see Cole posting numbers like he did last season? Of course. Ultimately though I believe the indicators that show a regression will fix themselves by next year through the course of normal offseason work.
But, for now at least, the question remains for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their fans.
Has Gerrit Cole regressed as a pitcher?
I’m just not ready to go there just yet.
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