The Pittsburgh Pirates had a disappointing 2016 season. As the off-season begins, it is time to grade out the club. Today we look at a pitcher who underwent the Ray Searage treatment.
The 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates spent much of the season without a stabilizing force in their starting rotation.
They found one in Ivan Nova, albeit four months too late.
Yes, Nova had a fantastic two months with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Many words have been written on just how dominant Nova had been since coming over to Pittsburgh and linking up with Ray Searage. As I prepared this grade out today, I was strikingly reminded of the degree of control that was shown from the former Yankee.
How dramatic was Ivan Nova's turnaround with PIT?
NYY – 97.1 IP / 3.0 SO-W ratio
PIT – 64.1 IP / 17.33 SO-W ratio— Jason Rollison (@jrollisonpgh) October 13, 2016
Intellectually, I – and all Pirates fans – could register how drastically better Nova performed as a Pirate, but seeing the stats again was a feeling akin to hearing a long-forgotten song on the radio. Immediately, the rushes come back and you remember how good it was in the first place.
Control Control Control
In early September, I focused on Nova’s first-pitch strike success directly leading to his low walk totals. As I noted then, it would take 26.1 innings before Nova issues his first walk since being traded, and that free pass came in a nine inning complete game. Nova had always been prone to scattering a fair amount of hits, but with the Yankees, his lack of control was a handicap. In five of his 21 Yankees starts in 2016, Nova would need 95+ pitches just to get through six or less innings.
After joining Pittsburgh, Nova walked a total of three batters in 12 starts. That led directly to an uncanny 17.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For an admittedly clumsy comparison, Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Clayton Kershaw put up a 15.34 rate in his 2016 campaign.
No one is going to confuse 12 starts against Kershaw’s impeccable resume and reputation, but even allowing for a regression to a reasonable mean would indicate that Nova could now be considered a very dependable starting pitcher, provided the changes Searage instilled stick.
Stabilizing Presence
As mentioned at the top, Nova – along with Jameson Taillon – gave the Pittsburgh Pirates a stabilizing presence at a time when their starting rotation was in tatters.
[irp posts=”10392″ name=”Pittsburgh Pirates 2016 Gradeout – Jameson Taillon”]When the final bell rung on the 2016 trade deadline, Francisco Liriano had been dealt. Gerrit Cole had just hurled his first complete game on July 27th, but question marks remained after his return from the DL. The rotation was patchwork, with Chad Kuhl, Jeff Locke, Steven Brault and others getting spot starts.
Nova slid right in and won his first start in a Pirates uniform, but more importantly did something that the Pirates were not used to seeing. He went seven innings. The ability to go deeper into starts was a hallmark of Nova’s time in Pittsburgh, with two complete games and four overall starts of six innings or more.
Would More Strikeouts Have Helped?
Nova had his stumbles. With the team clinging to feint playoff hopes, taking losses in back to back starts on September 18th and 24th, and did not last more than four runs in each. It is an entirely fair debate to wonder out loud how the team’s late season woes may have been alleviated somewhat if those two games – very winnable games at that – were turned around into wins.
What we do know is that the common denominator among those two hiccups was a lack of strikeouts. Nova has never been a high strikeout threat – his career strikeout-per-nine rate is 6.7. He had but two in each of those two starts. He still had the control – he did not walk a batter in the two contests – but, again, left a smattering of hits that turned into runs. At this point in his career, Nova is who he is in terms of strikeout ability, but the lack of being able to retire hitters without putting the ball in play can sometimes come back to bite him.
Conclusion and Final Grade
Believe it or not, Nova’s time with the Pittsburgh Pirates was hard to grade out. The extreme control he showed would provide enough ammunition for a high letter grade on its own merits. On the other hand, Nova did have his share of hiccups at a time when the club was in desperate need of wins.
In the end, the good far outweighs the bad. Nova provided the club with something it needed all year. It could be argued that the Pittsburgh Pirates would not have found themselves in late-season Wild Card contention at all if not for the spark and stabilization that Nova provided. For that fact alone, Nova receives our first ‘A’ grade of the offseason.
What grade would you give Nova?
Agree with our grade? Disagree? Cast your vote below to let your voice be heard!
What Grade Would you give Ivan Nova for his time with the #pirates in 2016?
— Jason Rollison (@jrollisonpgh) October 13, 2016
Catch up on Past Gradeouts
Miss out on a previous 2016 Grade Out? CLICK HERE for a complete listing.
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