What kind of numbers does Gregory Polanco need to put up in 2018 to shake any talk of being a bust?

Pittsburgh Pirates’ right fielder Gregory Polanco has come hot out of the gate to start the 2018 season. What kind of numbers does the right fielder need to put up during this season to bounce back from his subpar 2017 campaign and not be labeled a bust?

Gregory Polanco grabbed everyone’s attention after his big year in 2016. The right fielder slugged 22 home runs, drove in 86 runs and slashed a respectable .258/.323/.463. With a wRC+ of 106, Polanco was above average in that department and appeared to be an absolute bargain after signing a five year, $35 million contract with two team option years. But unfortunately for Polanco and the team, his follow up year fell well short of those marks.

Polanco’s 2017 season saw him play in just 108 games due to multiple stints on the disabled list because of a hamstring injury that resurfaced throughout the year. He smacked just 11 home runs in those games and saw his slash line drop to .251/.305/.391 and his wRC+ plummet to below average at just 81. If there was any silver lining to the 2017 season, it was that Polanco was able to drop his strikeout rate from 20.3 percent the year before to 14.6 percent. Unfortunately while he was able to drop his strikeout rate, his walk rate also went down, going from 9.0 to 6.6. Because of this, for the third year in a row Polanco posted the exact same BB/K of .45.

But as mentioned above, Polanco has been on fire to start the 2018 season. With the notation that it’s only been six games and one can hardly put a lot of stock in such a small sample size, Polanco is currently slashing .280/.441/.680 with two home runs and 11 runs driven in with a stolen base. Of his seven hits, six of them have gone for extra bases. Even more impressive, Polanco currently has more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six).

A deeper dive into the early days of the season for Polanco show why he might be on the verge of busting out and really making a name for himself this season. A total of 43.8 percent of his hits have fallen into the hard hit category, which would be far and away the best he has posted in a season if he can keep it up all year. His flyball percentage is also at 43.8 and he is pulling the ball 50.0 percent of the time, so combine those numbers with the short right field at PNC Park, and it is not hard to see him posting a home run total north of 20 this season.

His Statcast numbers so far this season also show the improvements he has made at the plate as he is performing better than league average in Exit Velocity (Polanco – 93.35 MPH, League – 88.92 MPH) and Launch Angle (Polanco – 14.34 degrees, League – 13.12 degrees). This is more evidence that Polanco could be poised for a breakout, as he is hitting the ball harder than average and his launch angle should also help him hit more home runs (especially when considered with his statistics in the above paragraph).

So what would be considered a good 2018 for Polanco and shake off any talk of being a bust? If he is able to surpass his career high in home runs (22) and club somewhere between 25-35 long balls, that would make him a very dangerous middle of the lineup bat for the Pirates. He currently has two through six games, so he could very well land around 30. He is not going to keep up this torrid pace at the plate, but if he can end the season with a slash line somewhere around .280/.360/.450 and add 15 or so stolen bases that along with the home runs should quiet any negative talk. Finally, a WAR in the range of 3-4.5 for the year would be a great improvement over last year and show his overall improved season and value to the organization.

Defensively, if he can do more of this and less of this he could become a serious threat in the outfield as well. But defensive adventures aside, as it stands right now Polanco is doing everything he can to drop the label of bust and earn the label of emerging superstar.