Tuesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates placed outfielder Gregory Polanco on the 10-day disabled list for the third time this season with a left hamstring strain. After another injury amidst another mediocre season, is one-time “can’t miss prospect” Polanco’s career at a crossroad?
From 2009-2013, a hyped Pittsburgh Pirates prospect made his debut in each summer (except 2011), buoying the team. In the first year, Andrew McCutchen made center field his spot by finishing fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole followed in three of the next four years.
In 2014, another top prospect debuted, but unlike his predecessors, he has not had a major-league season that has justified his minor-league hype.
The simple fact is, injured or not, Gregory Polanco has yet to break out in four seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Now, with another trip to the disabled list amidst a poor season, it’s time to wonder what’s next for Polanco. To do that, we have to look back at how his major-league career has gone thus far.
The rise
After spending his first three professional seasons primarily in the Gulf Coast League, Polanco started to make a name for himself in 2012 with the West Virginia Power, the Pirates low-A affiliate. In 116 games, Polanco hit .325 with 48 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs. As a result, Polanco made his debut on noteworthy top prospect lists like Baseball America (ranked No. 51 after the 2012 season).
As a result, Polanco made his debut on noteworthy top prospect lists like Baseball America (ranked No. 51 overall after the 2012 season and the Pirates No. 4 prospect).
He followed it up by becoming the Pirates top prospect in 2013, advancing from High-A Bradenton to Double-A Altoona. After only 69 games with Triple-A Indianapolis in 2014, Polanco joined the big-league Pirates on June 10.
Roadblocks
After opening his career with an 11-game hitting streak and a .365 average, Polanco fell off the face of the earth, batting .210 for his final 81 games. That includes collecting five hits in his final 42 plate appearances. He was so inept that Travis Snider started in right field in the 2014 Wild Card Game instead of Polanco.
It didn’t end there. Polanco has never hit above .260 in the major-leagues despite doing it at every level from low-A to triple-A in the minors. Polanco has also made a habit of striking out a lot, posting K% of at least 18 percent in each of his first three seasons. Not ideal for a player that has spent 1,178 of his 1,902 major-league plate appearances batting first, second or third in the lineup. Neither is his .213 career average against left-handed pitchers.
Defensively, Polanco has always rated as an average defender.
However, he is prone to inexplicable defensive lapses.
One moment he makes a brilliant catch, the next he misreads a ball. Polanco’s defensive play urges fans to chew their fingernails in fright.
Signs of promise
For all of his issues, Polanco still has shown flashes of the hype the allowed him to ascend to the majors so quickly.
Polanco showed off his power last season, blasting a career-best 22 home runs. The total was second-best on the team behind McCutchen. Polanco’s Isolate Power (ISO) jumped from .125 in 2015 to .205 in 2016; better than players like Bryce Harper and Corey Seager.
This year, he hasn’t been as successful, with a .152 ISO, but his K% is at a career-low 13.7 percent. Even with the drop, it’s worth recalling that it’s Polanco’s third trip to the DL.
Polanco has shown off an impressive arm in his young career despite occasional issues reading balls. His arm has always rated as above average and he seems to reel off a highlight-worthy throw each season.
Just search ‘Gregory Polanco throw on YouTube.’ You won’t be disappointed.
After a solid season last year, Polanco looked poised to continue the power numbers into this season. In this spring’s World Baseball Classic, he finished with the second-best average among players with at least 15 at bats (.579). His .619 OBP also ranked second best among players in the tournament and his .842 slugging percentage was fifth-best.
It looked like Polanco would hit the ground running in 2017, but he ended up hitting .247 in the first month of the season. He bounced back with a strong May (.310) and a stellar July (.387), but with a poor June (.187) sandwiched in-between. There have been flashes of Polanco living up to the hype, but a lack of consistency.
What’s next
The biggest thing hurting Polanco is his struggle with lefties. He’s only hit nine career home runs in 422 at bats against left-handers. Additionally, his .271 OBP and 106 strikeouts against them are signs that he’s failing to make contact enough and hasn’t been patient enough to reach base. Even just hitting .250 against lefties would be considered a huge step forward for Polanco.
Polanco is fragile this season and his hamstring could be the difference between the 2017 and 2016 versions of Polanco. That said, the 2016 Polanco still wasn’t the one that the Pirates envisioned as he climbed through their minor league system.
It’s up to the player to dictate his future with the Pirates. Pittsburgh has shown an urgency to want to play him regularly despite his up-and-down play. Polanco will jump back into the everyday lineup once he returns from injury. Maybe this time, the Pittsburgh Pirates will give him a little extra time to recover. Clearly, it wasn’t long enough the first two times.
Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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