Pittsburgh Pirates RF Gregory Polanco Mired in Peculiar Slump

Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Gregory Polanco is mired in an unusual slump. Or not, depending on how you look at it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates saw enough from Gregory Polanco‘s early season production to sign him to a long-term, mutually beneficial extension.

And why wouldn’t they? In the month of April, Polanco slashed .302/.404/.500. He was taking more walks, striking out less, and developing into a run producer with great power potential.

As the summer months turned, however, a quirky dip in production in certain areas can lead some to believe that he is still having trouble maintaining the level of production he had out of the 2016 gates.

But, as you’ll see, that dip may not even matter when seen in light of what the Pirates ask Polanco to do.

A Long Swoon

Polanco is hitless in the month of September. He has exactly one RBI and one walk. But despite his short term struggles, a diminishing batting average and on base percentage has been a slow swoon for Polanco.

 

 

Polanco’s slashline has decreased in average and on base percentage nearly every month, with July being an Outlier. August in particular did not agree with Polanco, with 20 strikeouts against four walks. The newfound patience that surprised many in the early season has gone out the door in the second half, with a walk rate of 5.8 percent against an elite 11 percent in the first half.

Again, this may not even matter.

Polanco’s maturation as a hitter with legitimate 25 HR+ power has been noteworthy, and his 21 home runs have easily surpassed what many projections systems and fans alike would have wanted to see going into this season. Polanco’s batting average with runners in scoring position is just .248 on the season, but 64 of his RBI and an .842 OPS have come about in this scenario.

Since being moved down into a more traditional RBI slots in the order, Polanco has produced. He has nine home runs and 39 RBI from the third or fourth spot on the season.

But, is it fair to wonder what Polanco’s performance might look like if he can get back to being a disciplined hitter as well as selling out for power on occasion?

Bad Luck is A Real Thing

The answer is, Polanco may very well be doing just that, but has been bitten by a serious case of bad luck.

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I included .BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for these months to illustrate that Polanco has been flat out unlucky in July and August. As per FanGraphs, the current MLB-wide average for this metric is .300, which would label Polanco as extremely unlucky. On its own merits, BABIP could be hard to quantify. However, if we look at Polanco’s hard-hit percentages over the same time frame, we see that his outs are hit very sharply.

Polanco had a 32.1 percent hard-hit rate in July and a 40 percent clip in August. Both are well above the MLB average of 30 percent, and Polanco’s August in particular was very elite in this regard. Even this is hard to quantify fully, as Polanco has also seen about half as many shifts used against him as he has at-bats with no shift. He has been shifted on (both traditional and non-traditional) in 109 plate appearances against 220 non-shift trips to the plate.

What we can gather from this is that Polanco is hitting the ball very hard, but highly unluckily. It is not the opposing team forcing that bout of bad luck, either. Moreso than other times when we point to BABIP, Polanco has truly been unlucky.

This is where things get tricky. It practically boils down to a philosophical debate; a chicken-or-the-egg situation. If Polanco was a bit more selective, would he be more productive overall? Conversely, at the spots in the order that he is now hitting, should Polanco take more chances to produce more runs?

It’s a very tricky debate, and the answer may just be to let Polanco swing through it.

It all adds up to a very peculiar slump that may not even be a slump at all to some. Two things are clear in this highly unclear picture.

First, Gregory Polanco may still be a hitter in progress. The type of hitter that he is now could look entirely different than the hitter he will become.

But with a rapidly closing postseason window, the Pittsburgh Pirates may be better served if Polanco got back to better habits, and in a hurry.

Photo Credit – Daniel Decker Photography