The Pittsburgh Pirates have problems up and down their starting pitching corps, but chief among them may be the long ball.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jon Niese has given up 19 home runs in 2016. That figure is good for a tie for second-most in the majors behind a highly abnormal tally of 20 from Max Scherzer.
The home runs are many. You already knew that. What you may not know is just how varied they are.
Death By 16 Tiny Cuts
In looking over Niese’s home run logs, the first thing you will notice is that 16 of the 19 round-trippers are solo home runs. The damage equates to about 1.15 runs per home run.
The solo variety of a pitcher’s worst enemy is often indicative of a mistake pitch, and Niese is no stranger to mistakes.
On June 12th of this year against the Cardinals, Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk both connected for solo shots off of Niese. In another twist of variation – Holliday’s hit started the scoring in the first, and Grichuk’s game with the Pittsburgh Pirates leading 7-2.
Holliday’s home run in particular was a meatball of the meatiest variety.
Grichuk’s four-bagger was also up in the zone, but was on the inner third.
Grichuk is a right handed bat, so give him credit for getting his bat around on a pitch that was chest-high and inside. Even with Grichuk’s handedness considered, the ball was elevated, something that that Niese cannot afford without the velocity of a Gerrit Cole.
Not a Great Start
Overall, six of Niese’s 19 home runs have come on the first pitch.
Regardless of how much damage they inflict, no pitcher ever wants to give away runs on the first swing from a batter. It is demoralizing, and in the case of mid-level pitchers such as Niese, the effects can carry over into the next at-bat.
For the southpaw, the first pitch of an at bat is often troublesome overall. Here are his pitch locations for the first pitches from the same Cardinals matchup.
For a pitcher that came to the Pittsburgh Pirates billed as a groundball-heavy hurler, these first pitches are dangerous. Many are elevated in the zone, and many are hittable, especially against left handed hitters.
It’s not just the first pitch of the at bat that spells trouble for Niese. A total of 13 home runs (including the six on the first pitch) have come within the first three pitches of the at-bat.
The Pittsburgh Pirates love to practice the idea of getting a hitter out in three pitches or less. Four of the home runs have come when Niese has a two strike count in three pitches or less. Could Niese be pressing to work quickly? Five of Niese’s home runs have come on two strike counts of any variety, so there may be some credence to this.
Not A Road Warrior
PNC Park was recently ranked as the fifth-worst park for home runs by both left and right handed pitchers. Niese backs this up, as only five of his 19 home runs have come on the North Shore.
It is entirely fair to point out that Niese’s home runs have come in bunches at homer-friendly parks. Three came at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnatti on May 9 and two came at Coors Field on April 27. This represents 35.7 percent of his 14 long balls.
The better pitchers in the game pitch consistently regardless of ballpark. This has simply not been the case for Niese.
Damage Already Done?
The stat that I found to be most revealing about Niese’s home run tendencies is the fact that 12 of 19 have come with the team already behind. Of those 12, five have come when the Pittsburgh Pirates are already down by five or more runs.
A lot can be said about this fact. Obviously, Niese had not pitched well in these games before giving up the big hits. Does this mitigate the fact that he gives up such a large number of homers? It does not, but one could mount that argument, even if unsuccessfully. In this instance, these hits serve as rally killers before the rally even starts.
A Fruitless Search for Answers
If you are looking for answers as to why Niese gives up so many home runs, you won’t find them here. He is not the only homer-prone starting pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates staff, but Jon Niese’s home run tendencies leap off the page. He has given up 53 earned runs on the season – just one more than Jeff Locke despite seven more home runs allowed.
Barring an amazing second half, Jon Niese has likely pitched his way out of Pittsburgh.
Many will blame the home runs for that, but they are purely window dressing to an overall bad season
Strikezone plots courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Featured Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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