Pittsburgh Pirates Hot Stove Target: James Paxton

The Pittsburgh Pirates are still in search of a young arm to fill out their starting rotation. James Paxton from Seattle could be a fit, but at what cost?

As the Hot Stove continues to burn, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still in need of reinforcements for their beleaguered starting rotation. With a free agent market, their best option to fill that order could be found on the trade market.

With recent reports that the Seattle Mariners put their toes in the water regarding Andrew McCutchen‘s availability, and really who hasn’t at this point, there is no better time than now to profile a potential centerpiece in a Seattle/Pittsburgh: LHP James Paxton.

Career-to-Date

Paxton is a young left handed starter who has seen action in parts of four big-league seasons. As a result of some poor roster management, he has qualified as a super-two player while making 50 starts for his career. Here are his numbers to date:

 

Paxton has never been able to make more than 20 starts in any particular season due to a myriad of injuries suffered throughout his young career. At just 27 years old, Paxton has already gone through shoulder injuries and strained fingers on his pitching hand among other maladies.

The injuries took their toll not only on Paxton’s health but also on how he approached his craft. After looking lost in Spring Training last year, the Mariners felt they had little choice and optioned to the minors to rediscover his craft.  That clearly worked, as Paxton put up strong numbers throughout most of the 2016 campaign. He did spend some time on the disabled list in 2016, due to left elbow contusion.

The common thread throughout Paxton’s performance when healthy is control. After struggling in this first three seasons, 2016 amounted to a lightbulb season for the left-hander, and he walked just 1.8 hitters per nine. Coupled with a renewed strikeout ability, he was able to post the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, as well as set a high mark for strikeouts per nine.

Why the sudden jump? The answer is an intriguing one, especially given the Pittsburgh Pirates’ history.

Finding Another Gear, and Losing Another

After his first three years in the league, Paxton’s delivery was heavily tinkered with by his then-Triple A pitching coach Lance Painter. From an excellent read on FanGraphs back in June 2016:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”Eno Sarris – FanGraphs – June 2016″ link=”http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/james-paxtons-new-angle-on-life/” color=”” class=”” size=””]Triple-A pitching coach Lance Painter suggested a change in arm slot to the lefty. “I was getting way too high on the front side,” Paxton told Shannon Drayer. “It wasn’t a point of strength for me to throw from. Paint didn’t think it looked right.”[/perfectpullquote]

The change in arm slot, coupled with mixing in a sinker for the first time, clearly did wonders for Paxton in 2016. In prior years, the southpaw had mixed in a cut fastball which while it had bite, was not very effective. Hitters crushed the pitch – which averaged 88 miles per hour – to the tune of a .389 clip in 2015. A small uptick to an average mph of 91mph on the cutter in 2016 dropped the average against it down to .176.

Paxton’s four-seam fastball variety also found another gear, and in 2016 it now averaged close to 97 miles per hour. Velocity alone does not indicate success, and the Mariners rightly adjusted his pitch mix as well. After throwing nearly 72 percent of his pitches as four-seamers in 2015, Paxton adjusted that down to 59 percent. His new-found cut fastball success picked up the slack, and a so-so slider was laid by the wayside.

Paxton’s stuff profiles as a prototypical Pittsburgh Pirates hitter, perhaps with more natural strikeout ability.

The downside of this ability is a result that is sometimes feast or famine. Paxton has always maintained a groundball rate of at least 48 percent or higher in each of his four seasons, but 2016 also saw an increase in line drive rate (21.9 percent) and hard-hit rate at 33.1 percent. All are near league averages, but league average is definitely not where Paxton’s ceiling is.

Should the Pittsburgh Pirates decide to bring in Paxton, a scenario in which Ray Searage tinkers even further with usage could easily formulate, resulting in some of these peripherals reaching that ceiling. Paxton’s “floor” is solid, and that gives any pitching coach a fantastic foundation to build from

What Might It Take?

Paxton will be entering his first round of arbitration this year – again, thanks to his Super Two designation – but will still be controllable for three years. In that light alone, he won’t come cheap.

It is no coincidence that the Mariners came calling for McCutchen, as their outfield offense is woeful. They are also very left-handed heavy, and could use a right-handed bat in the outfield to balance their lineup. Any particular trade would likely be centered around McCutchen.

Prospect-wise, the Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates do not line up as perfect trade partners, though there are a few interesting starting pitching prospects to be had from the great Northwest. RHP Nick Niedert was a #60 pick overall in 2015 and carries a 60-rated fastball with strong enough complementary stuff. LHP Luiz Gohara – an international signing who is now 20 years old – has a 60 rated fastball as well but lacks refinement on his secondary pitches. After those two, the Mariners’ cupboards are relatively bare in what they can offer to Pittsburgh, as both teams are stocked similarly.

So, again, any potential trade involving Paxton might have to involve McCutchen, but the return could be worthwhile for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Paxton clearly has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm in the Major Leagues, and coupling him with an organization known for maximizing talent could elevate his ceiling even further.